So. . What didn't I know?

Kruser6 · Mar 3, 2006

So we have Georgia St 3-15 in the conference and just a flat out garbage team. They shoot barely 40% and allow 50% from the field defensively. They are playing Towson who went into G.State and beat them by 1 WITHOUT thier leading scorer. Now Neal is playing today, and the line drops from -2 Towson to a pick and -1 G.state. Gstate leads by 9 at halftime. WTF did I NOT know on this game that these heavy bettors came in and crushed that line on Georgia st's side. WHAT IS IT!

This shit pisses me off more then anything. I feel like there is information that I didn't get and probably never will be able to get. :drink:

Insiders · Mar 3, 2006

How true. As i have mentioned many times its ALL about Information. The wiseguys have a "pipeline" of information to lots of locals who know things that others dont. Thats the way its Always been and thats the way it shall Always be.

Kruser6 · Mar 3, 2006

Makes me never want to put another bet in again. I just can't stand getting backdoored by some information that I HAVE NO ACCESS TO. There is NOOOOOO reason that Towson should have lost to G. State. No reason at all. But someone knew something and that line got crushed and sure enough Towson lost by 10 plus.

TheFalls · Mar 3, 2006

Listen, gambling is evil. Evil forces have their grips on these people who set these lines. It will never make sense. Every game that should (too easy) hit usually never does-it usually never will for the rest of history.
You must quit playing these games.

On that note does anyone know someone who has worked for LVSC-directly connected to setting lines?

i_am_sore · Mar 3, 2006

How many player on Towson are going to the Pros? Answer: 0
How many NBA scotts were at this game? Answer: 0

When betting on two obscure teams where these guys have NO future in basketball after college there is a better chance that the game could be fixed by one side. Scenaro: Two starters on Towson have a guy in Vagas bet $10,000 a piece on Ga State for them. Easy money and no one really cares since it is Towson against Ga State. Just an opinion but you were right Kruser, this game SHOULD have been a no brainer.

Kruser6 · Mar 3, 2006

Very good points I am sore. Same thing is going on in the troy st game. The line flip flopped and its 59-29 Troy. . . again, what the hell is going on here! I always hated people who always blame losses on fixes, but I have a hard time not believing it after that Towson game.

Insiders · Mar 3, 2006

The Falls said:
Listen, gambling is evil. Evil forces have their grips on these people who set these lines. It will never make sense. Every game that should (too easy) hit usually never does-it usually never will for the rest of history.
You must quit playing these games.

On that note does anyone know someone who has worked for LVSC-directly connected to setting lines?

Lines are not set in LasVegas anymore, they are First hung up in Costa Rica. Cris and Oly are two of the First up. You must understand that they are First trying to set a number that will create 2-way action, thats first and foremost. The wiseguys are usually the First to play at these openers. Then if need be the number is adjusted to whichever way it needs to be moved to try to create action on the other side if need be.
Late moves are usually by Major groups that hit several of the offshore shops at the same time, this is way the Don Best screen goes Black all at once.

Dante · Mar 3, 2006

these are all garbage teams got to keep that in mind ....I hear ya kruser tuff loss I was with ya to ....

i_am_sore · Mar 3, 2006

I also am with you when people say a game is fixed but I have seen too many games like this by shit schools. $10 grand to a Towson basketball player is worth more than beating Ga State. What is sa is that I would almost do the same thing if I went to Towson and I knew I was not going to the Pros. $10,000 to a 17 or 18 year old is a lot.

TheFalls · Mar 3, 2006

Insiders said:
Lines are not set in LasVegas anymore, they are First hung up in Costa Rica. Cris and Oly are two of the First up. You must understand that they are First trying to set a number that will create 2-way action, thats first and foremost. The wiseguys are usually the First to play at these openers. Then if need be the number is adjusted to whichever way it needs to be moved to try to create action on the other side if need be.
Late moves are usually by Major groups that hit several of the offshore shops at the same time, this is way the Don Best screen goes Black all at once.

I agree with that to an extent. There are many lines that could be set higher and would get about the same two way action.
I believe books know which way the majority of action will go.
I believe alot of lines are set to encourage action on a side in order to get to a median that will get two way action.
This line could have easily been set at 4/4' and still would have gotten alot of TSU action. This stuff happens every night.

JohnnyMac · Mar 3, 2006

I lost one unit on Towson today. I listened to the entire second half on the Towson station, also. The Towson announcers didn't make any comments at all that anything was strange, except that GA State had lsot seven in a row and hadn't won in 31 days.

Towson had zero turnovers in the second half, Neal played and scored some points, and GA State was something like 7-15 from three point range. If it was fixed, how subtle was it? And how did Towson make all those threes for GA State?

Kruser6 · Mar 3, 2006

JohnnyMac said:
I lost one unit on Towson today. I listened to the entire second half on the Towson station, also. The Towson announcers didn't make any comments at all that anything was strange, except that GA State had lsot seven in a row and hadn't won in 31 days.

Towson had zero turnovers in the second half, Neal played and scored some points, and GA State was something like 7-15 from three point range. If it was fixed, how subtle was it? And how did Towson make all those threes for GA State?

Must have been pretty subtle since you didn't notice it

uppy:

In all seriousness Jimmy, not coming off picks, switching screens, boxing out correctly, all that stuff can come into play that you might not notice.

If Towson had ZERO To's then damn, they must have shot horribly.

I am not saying this game was fixed in ANYWAY, but I am just saying. . .it could have been.

i_am_sore · Mar 3, 2006

If you don't play defense it is easy to go 50% in three pointers. Towson didn't play ANY defense on the 3 point shooters even though they were lights out from 3 point range. Fixed games come in many styles, not always by turnung the ball over and missing shots. Not playing defense is actually the #1 ways games are fixed.

t3a · Mar 3, 2006

look both teams stink. Away from home they are even worse. If you look at how the teams are rated the line opening at 1 or 2 was absolutely right.

No outcome should be that surprising with 2 crappy, inconsistent teams. Look at the Ivy League games. Teams that look pretty even on paper get waxed all the time.

Not saying that there couldn't be more to it, but when you are playing a game with 2 bottom level teams it shouldn't be completely suprising

TheFalls · Mar 3, 2006

i_am_sore said:
If you don't play defense it is easy to go 50% in three pointers. Towson didn't play ANY defense on the 3 point shooters even though they were lights out from 3 point range. Fixed games come in many styles, not always by turnung the ball over and missing shots. Not playing defense is actually the #1 ways games are fixed.

This could make sense. But this would take a team effort. If it were one or two guys-coach would probably take them out or get on their ass-that is unless coach was involved.

i_am_sore · Mar 3, 2006

I agree with you t3a, especially on the IVY league. NEVER again do I bet on an Ivy league game. lol

Kruser6 · Mar 3, 2006

t3a said:
look both teams stink. Away from home they are even worse. If you look at how the teams are rated the line opening at 1 or 2 was absolutely right.

No outcome should be that surprising with 2 crappy, inconsistent teams. Look at the Ivy League games. Teams that look pretty even on paper get waxed all the time.

Not saying that there couldn't be more to it, but when you are playing a game with 2 bottom level teams it shouldn't be completely suprising

Agreed T3a

I am not saying this game was fixed at all. All I am saying though; is what didn't I know? What did the the guys who pounded that line all the way from 2 to a pk? My point is, why would anyone want to put that much money on these two inconsistent, horrible teams, to move the line 2 full points and even more at some books? Thats all I am asking.

TheFalls · Mar 3, 2006

Kruser6 said:
Agreed T3a

I am not saying this game was fixed at all. All I am saying though; is what didn't I know? What did the the guys who pounded that line all the way from 2 to a pk? My point is, why would anyone want to put that much money on these two inconsistent, horrible teams, to move the line 2 full points and even more at some books? Thats all I am asking.

Here's the thing. If I'm one of those guys that has this info-I would be just like them. I would never let the cat out of the bag. The books would be the only people that knew-after I pounded.

t3a · Mar 3, 2006

Kruser6 said:
All I am saying though; is what didn't I know? What did the the guys who pounded that line all the way from 2 to a pk? My point is, why would anyone want to put that much money on these two inconsistent, horrible teams, to move the line 2 full points and even more at some books?

Hey you may be right that people close to the teams or something will know if out of 2 teams going nowhere, one might just be ready to call the season quits and not go all out. But I don't know that flipping a 1 point favorite to a 1 point dog means it got pounded.

I looked at this game and I just didn't see any value in either side, I rated it Georgia St by 1, just beacuse I gave them a little edge in their last few games, but unless the lines was 5 or 6 I didn't see any advantage to take either side. Now if the line had been 5 or 6 though I would have definitely thought I was missing something.

Insiders · Mar 3, 2006

The Falls said:
I agree with that to an extent. There are many lines that could be set higher and would get about the same two way action.
I believe books know which way the majority of action will go.
I believe alot of lines are set to encourage action on a side in order to get to a median that will get two way action.
This line could have easily been set at 4/4' and still would have gotten alot of TSU action. This stuff happens every night.

Sure games move Everytime there is Big money comening in on that side, as you say it happens everynight!
This line that you are referring to today was about right as the opener was -2 and the closer was -1.5 the other side.
Lots of times when the Major groups are moveing on a game and the bookmakers finally wake up to the fact that they are not going to get any sizeable action on that side, they SKIP Pickem and go staright from one side as of being -1 to the other side as being -1, as the game Cant fall on Pick. Its hard for some people to grasp that the public can be on one side of a game and only one wiseguy group on the other and the number moves rapidly against the public. Its like someone said here John Q Public can bet 100k on a game and the number never moves, one wiseguy group bets 50k on the other side and the makers cant move the line fast enough in the wiseguy direction. So its really Not how much they bet, its WHO bet it. This is one of the problems about playing early, ya never know which way the number is going to move, and if it moves 3 points against you, you are more than likely on the Wrong side to begin with. Lots of angles to cbb and Lots of games the wiseguys plays from time to time. This game today is the perfect exmple of the wiseguys killing the makers and the public at the same time.
If it looks like a Duck, and if it quacks like a Duck, its probably a Duck.
Sometimes you have to force yourself off of a side, ans sometimes you have to get off at numbers that you can middle yourself as well.
This is why Locals are so very important, as they are sometimes slow to move and sometimes they move the other way.