How do you bet Baseball?

Iceman · Mar 4, 2006

do you follow someone or do your own thing?
If you do your own thing do you go by feel or put together a line on game to compare with books? If so, what sort of edge are you looking for (10 cents,20 cents,etc...)

earl · Mar 4, 2006

for starters ya gotta have a dime line, then proceed.

Iceman · Mar 4, 2006

what about does anyone just bet DOGS ONLY. I tried this last year and it bit me in the a** (no pun intended)
How about just ONLY scalping has anyone tried that for a whole year?

bucsfan67 · Mar 4, 2006

very well...thank you

:thumbsup2:

Sorry, i just had to.....

I use a "value" system that i go by.....i dont really mind if a team is a "favorite" as long as there is "value" in the number....alot of people think u have to bet dogs to win, well you dont, u have to bet the winner to win....if the fav is gonna win then you are gonna win more by betting the fav, thats not a real secret....the key isnt finding the "dogs" its finding the winners.....if i think a team with a certain pitching matchup can win 3 out of 4 times against the other team, and they are (-170), then thats good value.....of course there is alot more to it than that, i wont go into it all here, but its all about "value" to me.....if the dog has value i play him too...i would say my palys probably range about 60% fav's (counting runlines as favs even though many are + money) and 35% dogs, and 5% o/u's.....thats just an estimate......

Thats the great thing about baseball, there is so many stats and info, that everyone finds their own way to cap it..

Insiders · Mar 4, 2006

Betting baseball..........very carefully!
Only Dogs..................yes
Scalping.................... Must have Sleepy local for that, and then the Dog has to win most of the time to get Anything back. Offshore numbers always very very close, unless you catch a total on the move.

Iceman · Mar 4, 2006

Bucs,
do you write a number down of what you think the moneyline should be and than bet it ( I assume so). If so how much of an edge are you looking for, specifially? How long does this process take you daily to put together your numbers (if you do so).
Really interested in hearing from someone like you.thanks

BAGIANT · Mar 4, 2006

I've been betting streaks for years and have had good success with it. You have to wait for a team to win or lose three games in a row, and then bet on or against it until the streak is broken. There are times you get good prices +++ on the ML when players think the streak will end but it continues. You know there are times during the year when a team goes on a ten game winning or losing streak. Works for me!

Insiders · Mar 4, 2006

stuckinvegas said:
I've been betting streaks for years and have had good success with it. You have to wait for a team to win or lose three games in a row, and then bet on or against it until the streak is broken. There are times you get good prices +++ on the ML when players think the streak will end but it continues. You know there are times during the year when a team goes on a ten game winning or losing streak. Works for me!

GREAT point. I used to do that all the time. But when a team is on a "streak" a winning streak and at home, sometimes the price is just to high for me. Seems as if you are Always on Mostly Big Chalks when following a streak, winners anyway. And the other side of the one on the looseing streak is Always an over rated chalk. JMHO

NEWPORT · Mar 4, 2006

Bet it often and in parlays!!!! SOON It will be time

:money8:

RobFunk · Mar 4, 2006

Thats the great thing about baseball, there is so many stats and info, that everyone finds their own way to cap it..

Ya I agree. That is definatly one thing I really like about capping/cappers who cap baseball.

NEWPORT · Mar 4, 2006

RobFunk said:
Ya I agree. That is definatly one thing I really like about capping/cappers who cap baseball.

Stats in betting bases is MORE valuable for TRENDS to bet with or against, then anything else.....

Winning in baseball and especially high value parlays is due to a few simple facts

1. DOGS WIN

2. Did I SAY DOGS WIN

3. Casino Options (team totals, 5 inning lines, run lines on both sides. money lines, game totals)

4. Combine betting in parlays with full odds payouts

Going on a great run in bases is not that difficult, but you need to bet baseball everyday to understand thoe options. Best sport for a daily gambler, can be one of the deadliest tragedies for the one time slam gambler

I will post my first big parlay winner, I say in the first 3 weeks I will hit one!!

gl and make sure you follow the daily baseball poster. Great way to find some good combines, but also you will be able to know when to follow and when to fade....the ego of the daily baseball poster is big, and it is very rewarding to follow them as closely as the games!! Baseball is TREND betting and parlay betting at its best. Cannot wait...I ahve about 3 dimes I am starting the season with. gl NEWPORT

Kiss1 · Mar 4, 2006

I bet on the team that I think will win but not at more than -160.

Cap the pens, SP is important but a lot of leads are blown late.

Look at the over if a manager had to burn out his pen the previous night.

Join a serious fantasy league.

You gotta luv the game, I do.

-K1

SportSavant · Mar 4, 2006

and then the Dog has to win most of the time to get Anything back.

that is not accurate, you can set up the SCALP so you profit if the favorite wins, or so you profit if the DOG wins..... you just have to tinker with the numbers

Insiders · Mar 4, 2006

SportsSavant.

This year in the baseball, if you will notice that there will not be a handful of chances to scalp in either direction. Offshore numbers are merely "painted" as there will not be enough room to do anything.
Yes there are times, but you will be able to count them on your fingers and toes, Besides the scalp will be for very very little in the first place.
Then you run into this. One shop will take a big bet on either side, of course, an your other shop will be short limit spot.
You and i will watch this, this year and we shall see just how many chances we have, an how much the scalp is actually worth. I betcha that the Doggie has to win 75% of the time to scalp anything and that will be about as much as it takes to bu dinner at a nice place, if that.

Kiss1 · Mar 4, 2006

SportSavant said:
that is not accurate, you can set up the SCALP so you profit if the favorite wins, or so you profit if the DOG wins..... you just have to tinker with the numbers

You also have to fire at least $1000.00 on each side just to eek out a very small profit. Having my money tied up in a third world country and sweating transfer fee policys hardly seems worth the effort.

To each their own.

-K1

Insiders · Mar 4, 2006

Kiss1 said:
You also have to fire at least $1000.00 on each side just to eek out a very small profit. Having my money tied up in a third world country and sweating transfer fee policys hardly seems worth the effort.

To each their own.

-K1

Well said. And that $1000.00 many times will not buy dinner! Sometimes it will take much more than that.
As you say...to each their own.

BAGIANT · Mar 4, 2006

If you don't bet dogs when it comes o bases, you just can't win. Dogs will increase your bankroll and make it a great season. I know last year was a rough year, but that coould be said for the NFL season as well. Bet the dogs again and smile when you walk to the window!

bucsfan67 · Mar 4, 2006

ice man said:
Bucs,
do you write a number down of what you think the moneyline should be and than bet it ( I assume so). If so how much of an edge are you looking for, specifially? How long does this process take you daily to put together your numbers (if you do so).
Really interested in hearing from someone like you.thanks

I dont "write a number down" but i do estimate what i expect the line to be, and the ones that are far off, definitely grab my attention...I am simply a big fan of bases, and follow it religiously...so i feel i have some insight at times to what certain players do against certain pitchers, teams , etc...stuff i dont have to "look up" or "research" to know.....so i dont spend as much time as you might think, but i do take it serious....and dont ever post a selection that i'm not wagering myself, and that i am not behind......but since anything can happen, thats why my picks are all 1-2 units, 1 3 unit play a day....anyone feeling they have enough "advantage" on one baseball game out of 162, that they wanna wager 10 units, or 20 units, of game of the year, really scares me....Maybe a little different in playoffs, but during reg season, that would scare me...

Insiders · Mar 4, 2006

stuckinvegas said:
If you don't bet dogs when it comes o bases, you just can't win. Dogs will increase your bankroll and make it a great season. I know last year was a rough year, but that coould be said for the NFL season as well. Bet the dogs again and smile when you walk to the window!

Well said. I hope this year is NOT another year of the CHALK. That NFL season was the most unbleievable thing i have ever seen in 35 years. But i stopped playing the NFL years ago, and i am glad that i didnt partake into it this year.
Bring on the +200 Doggies !! LOL

Doug · Mar 5, 2006

Definetly bet a good amount of dogs, be very selective with favs, I prefer road fav's,esp. when laying -1.5 for + money.

Taking leads is good if you're accurate at forecasting line moves.

Remember baseball is as close as it gets to a no vig sport. Using all the dimelines, and better than dimelines, and exchanges... you should be able to find both sides of any game ( unless huge mismatch over -180) at virtually no vig. There aren't set numbers like hoops, you should be able to find both sides at spreads as narrow as 3 cents , or less,( like -168/ +165) using as few as 8 books. Then of course actual scalps, exist.