% of Time the Public is Correct

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This is probably an unanswerable question, but does anyone have an estimation at the % of time the public is correct. Its obviously gotta be under 53% or else bookies wouldn't be in business, right ?


Just wondering what all your thoughts are.
 
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During the past NFL season over 60 per cent....just ask some of the smaller shops. In reality I would guess around 44 per cent.
 

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If I were to fade all of the consensus plays on say wagerline what percentage do you think I would hit?
 

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Thanks fish. So you are basically saying is about the same as fading the public?
 

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Higgs said:
Thanks fish. So you are basically saying is about the same as fading the public?

Yes, correct.

By just fading the public in baskets/football one could basically erase the vig created by -105/-105 spread games over the longhaul on straight wagers, that is my opinion.
 

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Fishhead said:
Yes, correct.

By just fading the public in baskets/football one could basically erase the vig created by -105/-105 spread games over the longhaul on straight wagers, that is my opinion.

I agree, blanket betting will never net you any money. Picking all dogs or all favs or following the public or fading the public will never make you any money. However, if you get good at one of these and find the right spots you should do very nicely. My spot is going against the public on predominately underdogs, since both those hit at somewhere between 50-52% on average, thus before I even choose the better spots I am already above the 50% mark. just my oppinion. Oh yeah and screw the juice.....haha, I hate that stuff.
 

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Bluemyboy said:
I agree, blanket betting will never net you any money. Picking all dogs or all favs or following the public or fading the public will never make you any money. However, if you get good at one of these and find the right spots you should do very nicely. My spot is going against the public on predominately underdogs, since both those hit at somewhere between 50-52% on average, thus before I even choose the better spots I am already above the 50% mark. just my oppinion. Oh yeah and screw the juice.....haha, I hate that stuff.

Blue--I admire you for realizing this at such a young age!!!
 

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VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
During the past NFL season over 60 per cent....just ask some of the smaller shops. In reality I would guess around 44 per cent.

As the public are most Always on the chalk. The NFL season was outstanding to the public for one reason only, the chalks WON.
In reality i would think the public is correct about 40% of the time, maybe not even that much.
 

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Fishhead said:
Blue--I admire you for realizing this at such a young age!!!

thanks Fish, I got lucky and ran accross good info when I first started searching the web for different angles.

Insiders said:
In reality i would think the public is correct about 40% of the time, maybe not even that much.

If that were true, I would stop school right now and head to vegas and retire in 5 years at age 26. I think that number is far higher. Just my oppinion though.
 

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Yeah you guys make complete sense because we all know the "public" loses quite often but it isn't enough to completely make up for the vig on the other side. If we could blindly bet the other side we would all be rich.
 

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The public is never right, just lucky. The percentage does not matter as it is always a floating type thing. Most of the public like myself are World Famous Guessicappers and only win by mistake most times or pure luck.
 

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