Advanced 'Roll Management Question.

wiesman02 · Mar 7, 2006

Before I ask my question, let me introduce myself. 22 years old, started sports betting in September with a measly $100. After some poor b-roll management, I lucked out and got my roll to $500. In December, i wised up, and did the ol' fashion flat bet 2% on my roll.

Skip ahead to today, I'm at $1,400 (with the help of a 10:1, $20 Steelers Superbowl pick, and a $5 45:1 Smallville bet that Lana Lang dies) and some bonuses.

I've been picking a little over 54% in b-ball for the year. Its my first year, and I'm still learning even though I expect more since i've been a college b-ball junkie for years.

Lets get to the juicy stuff. Graduating from UConn in May, will get a fulltime job, and my plan is (assuming online gambling isn't illegal by then) to deposit half my income from my first year of work into my sports betting account. Will probably deposit around 25k come may of 2007.

Question 1: Since I have a higher b-roll, will it be in my best interest to decrease my flat unit from 2% to 1% since I'm dealing with more money ? Do most of u use a 1% system or 5* method ? ANd if its a 5* method, what % is each unit ?

Question2: When I have a 4+ unit losing streak, I increase my bet size from 2% to 3%. Stupid idea ? Never had too much of a problem with this.....is this a sure fire way to get broke ?

Bluemyboy · Mar 7, 2006

wiesman02 said:
Before I ask my question, let me introduce myself. 22 years old, started sports betting in September with a measly $100. After some poor b-roll management, I lucked out and got my roll to $500. In December, i wised up, and did the ol' fashion flat bet 2% on my roll.

Skip ahead to today, I'm at $1,400 (with the help of a 10:1, $20 Steelers Superbowl pick, and a $5 45:1 Smallville bet that Lana Lang dies) and some bonuses.

I've been picking a little over 54% in b-ball for the year. Its my first year, and I'm still learning even though I expect more since i've been a college b-ball junkie for years.

Lets get to the juicy stuff. Graduating from UConn in May, will get a fulltime job, and my plan is (assuming online gambling isn't illegal by then) to deposit half my income from my first year of work into my sports betting account. Will probably deposit around 25k come may of 2007.

Question 1: Since I have a higher b-roll, will it be in my best interest to decrease my flat unit from 2% to 1% since I'm dealing with more money ? Do most of u use a 1% system or 5* method ? ANd if its a 5* method, what % is each unit ?

Question2: When I have a 4+ unit losing streak, I increase my bet size from 2% to 3%. Stupid idea ? Never had too much of a problem with this.....is this a sure fire way to get broke ?

I use flat bet method with roughly about 3% of my BR per pick. However since I am confident that using this will never depleat BR I always increase my unit size after a long string of wins and never decrease my unit size . I do take money out from time to time and work with what I have in my accounts. I would not advise increasing your unit size after losing streaks, but that is just my oppinion. I would definately say it is not a sure fire way to go broke esspecially if you feel you will make money (which is not easy). If you are gambling for fun or to supplement your income I would advise using 1% of your BR esspecially with the ammount you will have on each game. Always have lots of outs and do your homework and you will do just fine. By the way good luck in the tourney this year.

Salain · Mar 7, 2006

wiesman02 said:
Before I ask my question, let me introduce myself. 22 years old, started sports betting in September with a measly $100. After some poor b-roll management, I lucked out and got my roll to $500. In December, i wised up, and did the ol' fashion flat bet 2% on my roll.

Skip ahead to today, I'm at $1,400 (with the help of a 10:1, $20 Steelers Superbowl pick, and a $5 45:1 Smallville bet that Lana Lang dies) and some bonuses.

I've been picking a little over 54% in b-ball for the year. Its my first year, and I'm still learning even though I expect more since i've been a college b-ball junkie for years.

Lets get to the juicy stuff. Graduating from UConn in May, will get a fulltime job, and my plan is (assuming online gambling isn't illegal by then) to deposit half my income from my first year of work into my sports betting account. Will probably deposit around 25k come may of 2007.

Question 1: Since I have a higher b-roll, will it be in my best interest to decrease my flat unit from 2% to 1% since I'm dealing with more money ? Do most of u use a 1% system or 5* method ? ANd if its a 5* method, what % is each unit ?

Question2: When I have a 4+ unit losing streak, I increase my bet size from 2% to 3%. Stupid idea ? Never had too much of a problem with this.....is this a sure fire way to get broke ?

Sounds like we're in pretty similar positions, so some opinions -

1) I would eventually go down to 1% betting. 2% is generally safe for years at a time, but depending on how many games you lay per year, you could go on a once in every 10 life time losing streak that will kill you at 2%. The chances are virtually nil of this happening at 1%. Also since this is a significant increase in BR size for you, there will probably be a higher comfort level.

2) I would never vary your bet size if you're losing, unless it's to decrease it because you're cold. Games are random in their outcomes, but a capper can have a particularly good or bad feel for the game at some point. If you're winning, go ahead and throw a little more in. If you're losing, keep it the same or bet less.

Grats on the good work! keep it up

mike0187 · Mar 7, 2006

As a fellow college student who has spent hours a day on the RX for the past year learning everything I can about sports betting, I would strongly advise you to NOT give half your salary of your first year in a job to your bankroll.

I know the feeling of really wanting to get going and get serious, but that is a recipe for disaster. 25k will get you in over your head if you are only at 1,400 right now.

poopah · Mar 7, 2006

Hey Weis:
I hate to tell ya, but online gambling is very much so illegal. Betting on sports on the internet is illegal in every state, even in Nevada you are not supposed to bet online, that being said no one has ever spent a day in prison for placing bets, but don't plan on showing the IRS income from online sportsbetting cause they will take your money, being that it was made from an illegal activity. If you want to show gambling winnings say you won at the local casino. Don't get too freaked out though, like I said no one has ever spent a day in prison for placing an illegal bet, the feds don't care much about the people who place bets, they care more about the illegal bookies.

Salain · Mar 7, 2006

poopah said:
Hey Weis:
I hate to tell ya, but online gambling is very much so illegal. Betting on sports on the internet is illegal in every state, even in Nevada you are not supposed to bet online, that being said no one has ever spent a day in prison for placing bets, but don't plan on showing the IRS income from online sportsbetting cause they will take your money, being that it was made from an illegal activity. If you want to show gambling winnings say you won at the local casino. Don't get too freaked out though, like I said no one has ever spent a day in prison for placing an illegal bet, the feds don't care much about the people who place bets, they care more about the illegal bookies.

Sports gambling is NOT illegal in every state. States that I know of that expressly prohibit online gambling in some form or fashion are South Dakota, Oregon, Wisconsin, Nevada, Louisiana, Illinois, and Indiana.

You're right in saying that it's safer to just call yourself a "Professional Gambler" rather than a "Online Sports Bettor" or "Illegal Bookmaker".

Bluemyboy · Mar 7, 2006

Salain said:
Sports gambling is NOT illegal in every state. States that I know of that expressly prohibit online gambling in some form or fashion are South Dakota, Oregon, Wisconsin, Nevada, Louisiana, Illinois, and Indiana.

You're right in saying that it's safer to just call yourself a "Professional Gambler" rather than a "Online Sports Bettor" or "Illegal Bookmaker".

Are you saying that those states have no laws against it or that those are the only states that have laws against it. either way if you place a bet online in any state you are commiting a crime.
sorry to contridict you but, poopah is on the right track.

Salain · Mar 7, 2006

Those are states that have laws expressly prohibiting it, just like I said. Not that I've done the research to know it myself, but there are sources out there if you look for them.

Insiders · Mar 7, 2006

I myslef use the 1-5* system. I Dont believe in the Flat bet system, lots here do, but not me.
Never Press behind a loser. Always Press into a winning streak. These are just 2 of the things that i have learnd in my life.

I actually believe that when bookmakers look at someone that makes a deposit and starts that 1-2% flat bet, they sit back and just laugh. I know a few that say, Well the VIG will get this guy sonner or later. Very very difficult to play year round with over a 50% rate.
So in other words, kinda like the ole farmer used to say, "Son ya gotta make hay while the sun shines" So pick out your best sport and bet soemthing that matters into that sport.

fathead · Mar 7, 2006

poopah said:
...but don't plan on showing the IRS income from online sportsbetting cause they will take your money, being that it was made from an illegal activity.

The IRS doesn't care how you earn your money as long as you file correctly and pay taxes on the amount earned or won. The IRS is prohibited by law from reporting you to any authority based on information in your tax returns, so there is really no need to worry about them turning you in for gambling or even booking for that matter.

Now if you win and intentionally avoid paying taxes on the winnings, that is a whole different situation if they ever find out about it.

fathead · Mar 7, 2006

Kelly Criterion

Here is a nice Kelly criterion calculator for determining bet size that someone pointed me to a few weeks ago. Just plug in your numbers and click on the 'calculate bet' button to see how your strategy compares.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

Bluemyboy · Mar 7, 2006

Salain said:
Those are states that have laws expressly prohibiting it, just like I said. Not that I've done the research to know it myself, but there are sources out there if you look for them.

I live in Washington I and I know it is against the law in my state. Anyone who thinks that online betting is legal is wrong, just lucky for all of us it will never be a crime that they will arrest anyone for. At least on our side of the computer.

wiesman02 · Mar 7, 2006

I like that kelly kriterion, but too bad there's no way in hell I'm betting 5% of my roll per game.

Advanced 'Roll Management Question.

Search

wiesman02

Looking to copulate with Racist Nuns

Bluemyboy

New member

Salain

New member

mike0187

New member

poopah

New member

Salain

New member

Bluemyboy

New member

Salain

New member

Insiders

New member

fathead

New member

fathead

New member

Bluemyboy

New member

wiesman02

Looking to copulate with Racist Nuns

Forum statistics

Share this page