What Percentage Of The Time Does The Line Move In The Winning Direction?

Number_9 · Mar 8, 2006

A pretty simple question that I can't ever remember seeing the answer to:

Team X opens as a -7.5 favorite over Team Y. The line is -8.5 by gametime. What % of the time does Team X cover?

I know it will be extremely close to 50%, and that the result will vary based on whether you use the opening or closing number. But I was wondering if anybody knew the answer offhand or had the data in Football or Basketball to quickly look it up.

Thanks for looking.

:howdy:

winbet · Mar 8, 2006

This is like the question about public money where posters seem to be hoping to find a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There are many reasons why lines and prices move, public as well but one things for sure, taking the spent line is a mugs game. hard work and plenty drinking is the only recipe for success in any gambling.:drink:

Number_9 · Mar 8, 2006

Thanks for the reply winbet, and I'm sure you're right. I'm not really looking for a pot of gold (not with this question anyway), it was more of a curiosity thing than anything else. I know a fair amount about sportsbetting, but I don't know the answer to this seemingly fundamental question.

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nimue77 · Mar 8, 2006

I can assure you the -7.5, -8. and -8.5 would all cover more than not in that scenario. What % I don't know.

Number_9 said:
Thanks for the reply winbet, and I'm sure you're right. I'm not really looking for a pot of gold (not with this question anyway), it was more of a curiosity thing than anything else. I know a fair amount about sportsbetting, but I don't know the answer to this seemingly fundamental question.

http://forum.therx.com/images/smilies/toast.gif
:toast:

Number_9 · Mar 8, 2006

Thanks for the reply nimue.

Salain · Mar 8, 2006

winbet said:
This is like the question about public money where posters seem to be hoping to find a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There are many reasons why lines and prices move, public as well but one things for sure, taking the spent line is a mugs game. hard work and plenty drinking is the only recipe for success in any gambling.:drink:

Winbet is very right, there are a lot of reasons lines move...from what I've looked at if you blanket bet into movers after the move you'll come out slightly below %50. (based on actual results, not communal hearsay)

I never used to believe in pots of gold :money:

Fishhead · Mar 9, 2006

Good topic for a Thursday morning with MARCH Madness around the corner.

Any more thoughts?

D2bets · Mar 9, 2006

It's going to depend a lot on the extent of the move and whether we're measuring against the original or closing number. And what sports are we talking about, college hoops?

I just don't think you're going to find a huge subset of closing numbers encompassing all 1+ pt moves winning or losing more than 51% or so. Of course in college hoops a 51% closing winner that has moved 2 points makes the original number something like 58%.

nimue77 · Mar 9, 2006

Just FYI, what I meant by this is that taken as a whole the 3 spreads would cover more than +7.5, +8, +8.5 as a whole - i'm thinking my original quote was confusing.