Tulsa said:GUYS, how can my pushes estimate be so high when the two teams are obviously closely matched to get that pricing in the first place! You can't come up with such quick values without just saying you are using the ENTIRE set of games. THIS is a subset of games where the teams are closely matched. I am SURE that pushes happen at least 15 out of 100 times when you have such tight lines. HOWEVER,
OK...I said it was conservative estimate so let us get closer to the numbers you guys promote:
Give me 5% pushes
Give me Dog gets 46% wins.
So the numbers end up POSITIVE $52 or .5 units over the course of 100 units wagered. NOT worth it. tulsa
Tulsa said:The guys I'm going with are running late so I'm back to check in!
Alright...will someone tell me that you're examining the number of times games have a fav hit -1 WHEN AND ONLY WHEN the set is such that the lines are so close as to be considered tight. Tell me, do you think the number of pushes is no different for +1.85 and -2.00 priced games than for -110 and +100 games? Guys, work with me here. You are looking at the overall set of games played not the subset priced at -1: -104 and ML: +116?
I would love to have the time to show that the subset of NCAA games played that are so tightly priced as Fish's hypothetical have AT LEAST 5 out one hundred games end with the favorite winning by 1. I don't have the time to go figure that one out and it would not be easy to go back and find the games that were priced such as the scores are easy to determine historically, but the prices are the hard part. I don't know where one would find historical pricing like that.
I still am confident that 5 out of 100 for that subset (not all games, of course) hit with a favorite pushes the -1. tulsa
'quantumleap said:There's a difference of 12 points. Therefore, if you bet equally on each side you will win 6 points on each game that does not result in a 1-point win by the favorite. If the favorite wins by 1 point you will lose the dog bet and push on the favorite bet. You would lose 1 unit in this case.
Let's say this happens 3% of the time as a worst-case scenario.
Using 100 games as an average and $100/bet we would have:
97 times this wins * $6.00 = $582
3 times this loses * $100 = -$300
This would give you a profit of $282 for every 100 games.