Baseball Question

Being a complete dope when it comes to Baseball ( some would say at all sports) I have given myself a crash course in the figures. The thing is, does in-running markets on exchanges distort the odds.

To make it easy, we have 2 equal teams, US odds 100 each. The old betting meant you were locked in until the end, so the odds made sense. However, accepting that a run = 100 EG, and the betting would go -200, +200 and the stats say its a 5/2 chance to score. Surely one would be getting value on the road team when availed to in-running betting as you have backed a 5/2 chance at no loss of price.

I also wonder about run lines being abused in certain situations, all of which makes today's bookmakers clueless as to why people are taking their odds. This also impacts on the nonsense of public money etc, so enjoyed by the blunt sharps. The betting game has just gone a notch higher and more complicated but as usual, winners get the money, losers sing the blues.

Any thoughts are most welcome except the public money mug angle where punters actually let others decide what they are betting, real sharp.:drink:

Your maths are wrong. First off, you assume that if the road team does not score, the price stays the same - not the case at all. 2nd, a run is worth a lot less than .50 in a even money game. Anyway, with the margin on live games where you could rarely get close to 100% market and the price modification on scoreless half inning, my guess is that you'll be very close if not under the "not to score/to score" odds offered by some bookmakers.
Personally, if I'm going to bet a game in running, I NEVER take a position before the start.

nice stuff Zee and thanks, obviously you know the craic. I understand the situation about the road price but in-running you can get out at an inflated price if your wrong, I do this all the time in Basketball. However, I am taking about a 5/2 bet for less odds, take the loss or hope the home team dosent score.
My template was on a 100% market for ease but many a time a market hits 100% on betfair if televised. Your view of how much a run is worth is interesting, I must admit to being old school in .50 etc makes me get the calculator out, but I am pretty certain that if a team went 1 up in an innings, your .50 hand would be taken off.

Many thanks for your post and maybe we should get in touch with each other, seeing as we seem to have the same reasoning about in-running bets:drink:

winbet, we have a common friend actually (Santo), if you want to get in touch, ask him about my MSN, he has it. I often do the in play markets @ BF and I'am on the NBA pretty much all the time, so it's pretty certain we've "crossed blades" more than once already;o))