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Thread: Win rate, Standard Deviation, Bankroll, and Kelly's Criterion

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  1. #51  
    RX Wizard Insiders's Avatar
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    Well this is a good thread for this. I am not a fan of the 1-2% of the bankroll like so many others here say they are. Lets assume that a player had a bankroll of 10K. Lets say he of she put themselves on that 1% grind. Now lets say they actually did hit 55% of the plays over a course of a season, year, whatever for 100 plays. So they have made 100 plays with 55 of them being a winner and 45 of them being a loser, at 100.00 per play that have 5500 in winners and 4950 in losers for a grand total of 550.00 for that season, year, whatever. There is the math useing -10 on all those plays, before someone comes in an says well you should just be laying -05 or 07 or whatever.It really ALL comes down to be able to pick winners, does it of does it not?

    Bookmakers love to see people make a deposit of 10k and start betting a 1-2% of that figure. The Bookmakers just laugh an say the VIG will get this guy sooner of laters, and it will too.
    Also if Bookmakers had their way about most things this is EXACTLY the kind of players that they want in thier shop. Just ask any of them that you know.
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  2. #52  
    2006 People Magazine's Sexiest Handicapper Alive Christian's Avatar
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    i would think just the opposite. if i were a bookmaker, i would much rather someone deposit, let's use your example, $10,000 and bet 5 or 10% of their bankroll on each play...

    why would a bookie want their customers to wager such a conservative amount (1-2%)??? since most players are losers, wouldn't it make sense that bookies want them to bet a higher pct.??? they'll just bankrupt themselves quicker!

    anyway, everyone has their own approach. i bet year-round. i end up with well over 1,000 plays each year from MLB, NBA and NFL. and i have an agreement with a really smart college basketball capper that i've known for years and we trade picks each year (i use his college plays and he uses my MLB plays each summer) this adds another couple hundred plays each year...

    so with around 1,500 plays each year, it just makes sense for me to risk 1% on each of my plays. with a .04 cent return on each dollar invested, i prefer the "grind" method of making a profit each year. it still gives me a great profit but it also PROTECTS my downside during those INEVITABLE losing streaks that come with this business.

    but what works for me, may not work for someone else...and to each their own. i just think it's crazy risking anything more than 1 or 2% per play, on ANY play...but that's just me.
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  3. #53  
    "It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort olshan Coach LT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Insiders
    Well this is a good thread for this. I am not a fan of the 1-2% of the bankroll like so many others here say they are. Lets assume that a player had a bankroll of 10K. Lets say he of she put themselves on that 1% grind. Now lets say they actually did hit 55% of the plays over a course of a season, year, whatever for 100 plays. So they have made 100 plays with 55 of them being a winner and 45 of them being a loser, at 100.00 per play that have 5500 in winners and 4950 in losers for a grand total of 550.00 for that season, year, whatever. There is the math useing -10 on all those plays, before someone comes in an says well you should just be laying -05 or 07 or whatever.It really ALL comes down to be able to pick winners, does it of does it not?

    Bookmakers love to see people make a deposit of 10k and start betting a 1-2% of that figure. The Bookmakers just laugh an say the VIG will get this guy sooner of laters, and it will too.
    Also if Bookmakers had their way about most things this is EXACTLY the kind of players that they want in thier shop. Just ask any of them that you know.


    As I have said before, I am in Insiders camp. One thing about experience is that you eventually just "KNOW" when to step out. Now that does not mean that that particular play is a "LOCK" You will NEVER, NEVER, EVER hear me say a selection is a lock. There are 3 things you cannot handicap. Those being penalties, tournovers, and injuries (or crooked officials such as the ACC thieves that STOLE the F$U- Florida game in 03) Just go with what has brought you success in the past. LT
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  4. #54  
    2006 People Magazine's Sexiest Handicapper Alive Christian's Avatar
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    you're right about "knowing when to step out" and even though i have a very conservative style (as i've said, 1% of bankroll per play), there are times throughout the year when i'll wager more on a play...

    the problem is, so few bettors really "know" when it's time to step it up. everyone wants to think that just because they win a little bit of money over a couple hundred plays, that it means they know what they're doing...

    it just doesn't work that way. you won't know you'rea actual "edge" until you're well into the THOUSANDS of plays made. that's the reality of this business. and with beginner gamblers, it is SUICIDE to risk anything more than 1 or 2%...they WILL go broke, simple as that.

    i just get upset when beginner/novice gamblers read what experienced gamblers wager (%-wise, i mean) and think that they can adopt the same approach.

    play it safe for a few THOUSAND plays (not hundred, that's not a typo, a few THOUSAND) and then once you know for certain what your skill level is, then you can wager a little more aggressively if you want to...

    or not, like me. nothing wrong with being conservative sometimes.
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  5. #55  
    "It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort olshan Coach LT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian
    you're right about "knowing when to step out" and even though i have a very conservative style (as i've said, 1% of bankroll per play), there are times throughout the year when i'll wager more on a play...

    the problem is, so few bettors really "know" when it's time to step it up. everyone wants to think that just because they win a little bit of money over a couple hundred plays, that it means they know what they're doing...

    it just doesn't work that way. you won't know you'rea actual "edge" until you're well into the THOUSANDS of plays made. that's the reality of this business. and with beginner gamblers, it is SUICIDE to risk anything more than 1 or 2%...they WILL go broke, simple as that.

    i just get upset when beginner/novice gamblers read what experienced gamblers wager (%-wise, i mean) and think that they can adopt the same approach.

    play it safe for a few THOUSAND plays (not hundred, that's not a typo, a few THOUSAND) and then once you know for certain what your skill level is, then you can wager a little more aggressively if you want to...

    or not, like me. nothing wrong with being conservative sometimes.




    GREAT point Christian ! Beginners should follow a conservative method until they have hundreds if not thousands of plays under their belt. Also there is tons of info out there due to the internet that old timers did not have. We have 2 young men here at the RX in their early 30s who already have "IT" I am speaking of Dawoofdaddy and Sharky 99. I met both of these gentlemen at last years Bash and within 5 minutes I knew they had "IT" They have already served their apprenticeship and have graduated Magna Come Loudly from Handicapper College. LT
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  6. #56  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Insiders
    Bookmakers love to see people make a deposit of 10k and start betting a 1-2% of that figure. The Bookmakers just laugh an say the VIG will get this guy sooner of laters, and it will too.
    Also if Bookmakers had their way about most things this is EXACTLY the kind of players that they want in thier shop. Just ask any of them that you know.
    I agree it would be stupid to deposit 10 k and play 1% per play but that isn't what I do.

    I am the 1%-2% sized bettor, but of my bankroll, each book never sees more than 5% of it. Right now, I have 65% of my bankroll in the bank, 20% in Neteller, 2%-3% in various books.

    So the book never gets a deposit of 10k. They see a $500 deposit and see me playing 10%-20% of that each play. Or they may see a $200 deposit and me wagering 100% on one play.

    Even if they see me wagering my whole deposit on one play, I could still be a 1% bettor. They have no idea what my bankroll is. All they see is what is deposited in their book and what is wagered in their book - and they never see a deposit of more than $500.
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  7. #57  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach LT
    GREAT point Christian ! Beginners should follow a conservative method until they have hundreds if not thousands of plays under their belt. Also there is tons of info out there due to the internet that old timers did not have. We have 2 young men here at the RX in their early 30s who already have "IT" I am speaking of Dawoofdaddy and Sharky 99. I met both of these gentlemen at last years Bash and within 5 minutes I knew they had "IT" They have already served their apprenticeship and have graduated Magna Come Loudly from Handicapper College. LT
    Coach LT and myself have discussed this many times in our conversations.

    Think us old guys sorta feel cheated in someway or another.

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  8. #58  
    "It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort olshan Coach LT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    Coach LT and myself have discussed this many times in our conversations.

    Think us old guys sorta feel cheated in someway or another.




    Fish, now that the Holy Grail is within reach after suffering all these years, the U.S. Holy Rollers are trying to thwart us. Beware of people who wrap themselves in the flag and hide behind the bible. They will take away your gambling while viewing kiddie porn. LT
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  9. #59  
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    [quote=Coach LT]Fish, now that the Holy Grail is within reach after suffering all these years, the U.S. Holy Rollers are trying to thwart us. Beware of people who wrap themselves in the flag and hide behind the bible. They will take away your gambling while viewing kiddie porn. LT [/qu


    You are probably correct sir.
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  10. #60  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach LT
    Fish, now that the Holy Grail is within reach after suffering all these years, the U.S. Holy Rollers are trying to thwart us. Beware of people who wrap themselves in the flag and hide behind the bible. They will take away your gambling while viewing kiddie porn. LT
    So damn true Coach!

    good thread Fish.
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  11. #61  
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    I would like to address the issue of variable bet size and win percentage. I have heard quite a few posters talk about "if you can win 58% or 60% you can be rich". Then we have ice man's excellent post about someone hitting 55% and only making a 5k profit. But how many of us bet the same amounts for each bet?

    CoachLT and Insiders both made good points about how when a person first starts out they should bet roughly the same amount per bet. Then, when they have a good feel of the particular sport they can vary bets.

    Let's say someone like CoachLT gets pretty damn good in a particular sport (or even a particular betting segment in that sport). That person has a good idea of how well they know certain aspects whether it be a particular team or perhaps totals or perhaps 2nd halfs. That person can vary their bets successfully.

    Let me use particular percentages here. Let's say CoachLT wins 45% of most of his bets that he bets outside of college football. Yet in college football he is winning 60% and his bets are increased. Overall the number of bets he wins may even be below 50% yet the actual amount he wins is for a good profit since he is winning a good majority of the larger bets.

    In summary, only when a person bets the same amount on each game can the percentage of games won really come into play. Otherwise, if you are betting varying amounts on games you know really well you can still make a profit.
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  12. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by quantumleap
    I would like to address the issue of variable bet size and win percentage.
    Well we get back to Kelly again. To maximize bankroll growth you should bet that fraction of bankroll that equals your advantage. (In blackjack you rarely get above a 2-3% advantage). In sports your advantage cannot be precisely calculated mathematically, as it can for blackjack in real time sitting at the table. I suspect that players who wager large fractions of bankroll (say 10%) successfully, have a good sense of what their mathematical advantage might be.

    I largely follow several cappers here at the Rx and am most comfortable playing less than 1% on most of my bets (my bankroll is low-mid 5 figures) as I view it as a profitable entertainment and am paranoid about bankroll preservation since it cannot be replenished. However I have placed bets in the 4-5% range on a progression system I am following.

    In summary it makes sense to vary your bets in relationship to your perceived advantage if you can successfully discriminate between moderate and large advantages.
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  13. #63  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Woody0
    (In blackjack you rarely get above a 2-3% advantage).
    Correct me if I'm wrong when I say that a typical person imagines a professional blackjack player playing at $10-$20 a hand until they get an advantage and then upping the bet amounts to $100+ per hand. This is simply not the case.
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  14. #64  
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    Quote Originally Posted by quantumleap
    Correct me if I'm wrong when I say that a typical person imagines a professional blackjack player playing at $10-$20 a hand until they get an advantage and then upping the bet amounts to $100+ per hand. This is simply not the case.
    A 5-1 spread provided you don't wear out your welcome is reasonable. A good double deck game is -0.25% of the top so a pro might play $100 and increase if warranted as (s)he gets an advantage going to $200 then $400 by pressing bets. One can also take advantage of playing multiple spots if you are alone or there are few players.

    Sadly the good games are mostly gone.
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  15. #65  
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    Bumping this thread in hopes that it will help a few sportsbettors this season as we enter the 2006 football campaign.
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  16. #66  
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    For those who know the theory and practice of Kelly betting, what are the fallacies in the "Debunking the Kelly Criterion" by Miller? I read others call the article crap but it's never spelled out explicitly where the inconsistencies are.

    http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html


    btw this is a thread that should be read by pretty much everyone.
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  17. #67  
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    JR Miller? Run. Run hard.
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  18. #68  
    Rx. Senior winbet's Avatar
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    Lots of over analysing, keep it simple. Make sure you have more on the Winners and less on the Losers.
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  19. #69  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    You betcha there are!!!

    Some of which have never produced a losing record in any year for 20+ years.

    When you find one, suggest you do not tell ANYBODY.
    Fish, how about dropping one of your secrets for your RX buddies since its your last day?
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  20. #70  
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    I have a question for the pros out there. If some of you are profitable sports bettors then wouldn't the books look down on you and want to close your account knowing you are making money off of them? I guess this is where you do price shopping and spread your bets around. My guess is that if you are making less than 10k / year over 1000+ plays then you don't show up on the radar screen unless you start betting larger amounts.

    Thanks and great thread.
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  21. #71  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bakinbaconwithMacon View Post
    I have a question for the pros out there. If some of you are profitable sports bettors then wouldn't the books look down on you and want to close your account knowing you are making money off of them? I guess this is where you do price shopping and spread your bets around. My guess is that if you are making less than 10k / year over 1000+ plays then you don't show up on the radar screen unless you start betting larger amounts.

    Thanks and great thread.

    wouldnt say I am a pro but I have made quite a bit the past 6 months. I rotate my money at 12 books or so anymore, keeping 6 funded at all times. I bet very small and try and spread it around everyday. Beleieve it or not I actually like and hope I lose at some, it that makes any sense.

    I have NEVER been booted at any book. Like you said in a perfect world beating each book for under 10k is ideal. I am still not up over 8k at any book but I think I am up over 3k at 7 books or so.
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  22. #72  
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  23. #73  
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    Bump for Mr. Jefferson

    On this subject, I recommend everyone on this forum read the book Fortune's Formula.

    Outstanding book detailing many of the facets of this subject since its inception.

    I'm currently in the process of reading it for the 2nd time.
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  24. #74  
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    good info
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