AL West Observations
(Ordered in predicted finish)
Oakland A’s (+127)
Pros:
Last year, the A’s made an impressive second half surge. However, the last few weeks, a lot of their players hit into a rookie wall, as they were not accustomed to such a long season. Expect this deficiency to change, as they gained a lot of experience from last year’s roller coaster season. The A’s seem to have the same intangible the White Sox have; an intangible of finding ways to win. They have a lot of clutch hitters that a lot of people don’t know about, and went out to the free agent market and signed two veteran power hitters to help supply the home runs the A’s were lacking last year. The addition of Bradley and Thomas will be a nice compliment to the handful of young contact hitters on the A’s. The addition of Loazia has now made the A’s become a top five starting pitching staff in baseball. It also allowed them to move Sarloos to the bullpen, also making the A’s possess one of the best bullpens in baseball. Its hard to find a weaknesses on this team, and the more I dissect this team, the more it reminds me of last years champs, the Chicago White Sox.
Cons:
This team is still young, and lack the experience their main competition the Angels have. Zito is coming off a disappointing season, Harden is coming off an injury plagued season, Loaiza is getting up in age, while Blanton and Haren have shown great potential, however have not yet proven they could repeat last years performance. Although this pitching staff could be dominant, it is has a lot of speculation involved. The loss of Rincon has left the A’s without a proven lefty specialist in the bullpen. Although their lineup is deep, and have a lot of role players, they lack a dominant All Star that could carry the team on his back.
Conclusion:
While the Angels appear to have taken a step back this year, the A’s seemed to have improved. Expect this off-season disparity to be enough for the A’s to take the title.
Investment Analysis:
In my opinion, the A’s have at least a 50% shot of winning the division. Therefore, a payout beyond even money appears to have value. However, a +127 payout is not the most compelling return for a season long proposition bet. Proceed with caution.
Las Angeles Angels (+118)
Pros:
The Angels might have the best bullpen in baseball. Their ability to hold on to late innings leads will prevent prolonged losing streaks, as well as keeping winnings streaks alive. They also improved their bullpen this year, by adding a southpaw Romero. They, much like the A’s, have an intangible of finding ways to win. Their experience will also be a late season asset that will allow them to potentially finish the season strong. They deepened their pitching staff by picking up to above average right handers in Corrasco and Weaver. Their lineup is not great, but slightly above average. With the pitching staff the Angels have, that’s all you need.
Cons:
I think the Angels might have gotten worse this year. They elected to get rid of their left handed pitcher who happens to be one of the best road pitchers in the game. The concerning part is the fact they failed to replace him with another southpaw, thus leaving the Angels pitching staff with all right handers. Colon is coming off an impressive year, but has been known to have on again, off again years. His volatile performances are not something you want out of an ace. Santana is still a raw talent, while Escobar and Corrasco are converted starters not accustomed to pitching an entire season. Their hitting went on a downward spiral the last two months of the season. Teams apparently have found more effective ways to pitch to Guerrerro. This is a huge concern, as he by far the most important player on the team. The Angels also got rid of their best clutch hitter and a solid signal caller in Molina. Their outfield is getting old and appears to be past their prime. Their infield is mediocre at best.
Conclusion:
Since this team has always played better than they appear on paper, its way too early to write the Angels off. However, they enter the season with many concerns that they didn’t enter the last couple of years with. I would be equally surprised to see them finish first as I would to see them finish third.
Investment Analysis:
At this price, in my opinion, the Angels are overvalued. The Angels have two solid teams to compete with, and in no way would I consider tying funds up with them if I am only getting slightly above even money in return.
Texas Rangers: +624
Pros:
The Rangers Achilles heal has always been their pitching staff. However, this year they appear to have greatly improved it by signing three free agent pitchers who will be their top three starters this year. Millwood is coming off his best season; Eaton is a solid and consistent supplement to have on a pitching staff, while Padilla has the ability to be downright dominant. These free agent additions will be combined with 2 young pitchers that showed some potential late last season. What was once an Achilles heal, appears to have improved to what is now a mediocre pitching staff. Their bullpen has also been a major problem in past years. However the off season addition of Otsuka has now made the Rangers posses a good set up man/ closer combination. Their hitting has always been a top 5 lineup in baseball. The loss of Soriano shouldn’t change that.
Cons:
All three starting pitcher signings come with risk. Don’t expect the same season out of Millwood, as last season was partially a product of overachieving. Padilla can look awful at times, and has been known to posses psychological problems. It’s hard to tell how he will handle pitching in the American League. Replacing the best hitting second baseman with an unproven rookie appears to be a huge drop off. The Rangers still have bullpen problems prior to the 8th inning. Their back two starters are unproven and very speculative. This is not something you want with 3 new pitchers filling your top 3.
Conclusion:
All in all, I like what the Rangers did in the off season. They appear to be a better rounded team, and now don’t have to score 7 plus run to win every game. Finishing over .500 appears to be a good possibility, and a division title is no longer a pipe dream.
Investment Analysis:
With a payout over 6 to 1, the Rangers might be worth the risk here. They give investors a completely different style of team their two main competitors have. As we know, pitching wins divisions. Therefore the Rangers now could be considered a division threat.
Mariners (+1488)
Pros:
Believe it or not, this team is not that much far off from the rest of the division. Their pitching staff is a decent one. They have the biggest pitching prospect in baseball with Hernandez, and also added a good southpaw in Washburn. Rounding out the rotation are two pitchers that underachieved last year, and should improve this year. Their bullpen is above average as well. Last year, their downfall was hitting. Last years blockbuster additions of Beltre and Sexon did not live up to all the hype, while Suzuki didn’t have the greatest of years as well. However, expect a better year out of all three players this year. The Mariners also went out in the free agent market and added two solid hitters in Lawton and Everett, and also have a handful of young hitting prospects to round out the lineup.
Cons:
Each team in this division possesses an asset that sets them apart from the rest of the division. However, the Mariners lack this asset. Their ace of the staff is over 40, and is the worst number one pitcher in baseball. If Hernandez is unable to live up to the hype, the Mariners pitching staff will be a big weakness. Guardado is injury prone and less durable than he once was. Their lineup lacks clutch hitting (aside from Ichiro), and is prone to go into prolong hitting droughts.
Conclusion:
Although the disparity between this team and the rest of the division isn’t terribly substantial, a last place spot is most likely in the cards for the Mariners this year. They simply did not do enough in the off season to realistically contend with the rest of the division.
Investment Analysis:
In my opinion, the Mariners are fairly valued with the odds book makers have given them. Therefore, even with a large payoff they come with, they are still not worth the risk. The Rangers appear to be a much better deal.
Divisions Best Bet: A’s +127
Divisions Best Value: Rangers +624
Divisions Best Fade: Angels -130 (to not win the division)
(Ordered in predicted finish)
Oakland A’s (+127)
Pros:
Last year, the A’s made an impressive second half surge. However, the last few weeks, a lot of their players hit into a rookie wall, as they were not accustomed to such a long season. Expect this deficiency to change, as they gained a lot of experience from last year’s roller coaster season. The A’s seem to have the same intangible the White Sox have; an intangible of finding ways to win. They have a lot of clutch hitters that a lot of people don’t know about, and went out to the free agent market and signed two veteran power hitters to help supply the home runs the A’s were lacking last year. The addition of Bradley and Thomas will be a nice compliment to the handful of young contact hitters on the A’s. The addition of Loazia has now made the A’s become a top five starting pitching staff in baseball. It also allowed them to move Sarloos to the bullpen, also making the A’s possess one of the best bullpens in baseball. Its hard to find a weaknesses on this team, and the more I dissect this team, the more it reminds me of last years champs, the Chicago White Sox.
Cons:
This team is still young, and lack the experience their main competition the Angels have. Zito is coming off a disappointing season, Harden is coming off an injury plagued season, Loaiza is getting up in age, while Blanton and Haren have shown great potential, however have not yet proven they could repeat last years performance. Although this pitching staff could be dominant, it is has a lot of speculation involved. The loss of Rincon has left the A’s without a proven lefty specialist in the bullpen. Although their lineup is deep, and have a lot of role players, they lack a dominant All Star that could carry the team on his back.
Conclusion:
While the Angels appear to have taken a step back this year, the A’s seemed to have improved. Expect this off-season disparity to be enough for the A’s to take the title.
Investment Analysis:
In my opinion, the A’s have at least a 50% shot of winning the division. Therefore, a payout beyond even money appears to have value. However, a +127 payout is not the most compelling return for a season long proposition bet. Proceed with caution.
Las Angeles Angels (+118)
Pros:
The Angels might have the best bullpen in baseball. Their ability to hold on to late innings leads will prevent prolonged losing streaks, as well as keeping winnings streaks alive. They also improved their bullpen this year, by adding a southpaw Romero. They, much like the A’s, have an intangible of finding ways to win. Their experience will also be a late season asset that will allow them to potentially finish the season strong. They deepened their pitching staff by picking up to above average right handers in Corrasco and Weaver. Their lineup is not great, but slightly above average. With the pitching staff the Angels have, that’s all you need.
Cons:
I think the Angels might have gotten worse this year. They elected to get rid of their left handed pitcher who happens to be one of the best road pitchers in the game. The concerning part is the fact they failed to replace him with another southpaw, thus leaving the Angels pitching staff with all right handers. Colon is coming off an impressive year, but has been known to have on again, off again years. His volatile performances are not something you want out of an ace. Santana is still a raw talent, while Escobar and Corrasco are converted starters not accustomed to pitching an entire season. Their hitting went on a downward spiral the last two months of the season. Teams apparently have found more effective ways to pitch to Guerrerro. This is a huge concern, as he by far the most important player on the team. The Angels also got rid of their best clutch hitter and a solid signal caller in Molina. Their outfield is getting old and appears to be past their prime. Their infield is mediocre at best.
Conclusion:
Since this team has always played better than they appear on paper, its way too early to write the Angels off. However, they enter the season with many concerns that they didn’t enter the last couple of years with. I would be equally surprised to see them finish first as I would to see them finish third.
Investment Analysis:
At this price, in my opinion, the Angels are overvalued. The Angels have two solid teams to compete with, and in no way would I consider tying funds up with them if I am only getting slightly above even money in return.
Texas Rangers: +624
Pros:
The Rangers Achilles heal has always been their pitching staff. However, this year they appear to have greatly improved it by signing three free agent pitchers who will be their top three starters this year. Millwood is coming off his best season; Eaton is a solid and consistent supplement to have on a pitching staff, while Padilla has the ability to be downright dominant. These free agent additions will be combined with 2 young pitchers that showed some potential late last season. What was once an Achilles heal, appears to have improved to what is now a mediocre pitching staff. Their bullpen has also been a major problem in past years. However the off season addition of Otsuka has now made the Rangers posses a good set up man/ closer combination. Their hitting has always been a top 5 lineup in baseball. The loss of Soriano shouldn’t change that.
Cons:
All three starting pitcher signings come with risk. Don’t expect the same season out of Millwood, as last season was partially a product of overachieving. Padilla can look awful at times, and has been known to posses psychological problems. It’s hard to tell how he will handle pitching in the American League. Replacing the best hitting second baseman with an unproven rookie appears to be a huge drop off. The Rangers still have bullpen problems prior to the 8th inning. Their back two starters are unproven and very speculative. This is not something you want with 3 new pitchers filling your top 3.
Conclusion:
All in all, I like what the Rangers did in the off season. They appear to be a better rounded team, and now don’t have to score 7 plus run to win every game. Finishing over .500 appears to be a good possibility, and a division title is no longer a pipe dream.
Investment Analysis:
With a payout over 6 to 1, the Rangers might be worth the risk here. They give investors a completely different style of team their two main competitors have. As we know, pitching wins divisions. Therefore the Rangers now could be considered a division threat.
Mariners (+1488)
Pros:
Believe it or not, this team is not that much far off from the rest of the division. Their pitching staff is a decent one. They have the biggest pitching prospect in baseball with Hernandez, and also added a good southpaw in Washburn. Rounding out the rotation are two pitchers that underachieved last year, and should improve this year. Their bullpen is above average as well. Last year, their downfall was hitting. Last years blockbuster additions of Beltre and Sexon did not live up to all the hype, while Suzuki didn’t have the greatest of years as well. However, expect a better year out of all three players this year. The Mariners also went out in the free agent market and added two solid hitters in Lawton and Everett, and also have a handful of young hitting prospects to round out the lineup.
Cons:
Each team in this division possesses an asset that sets them apart from the rest of the division. However, the Mariners lack this asset. Their ace of the staff is over 40, and is the worst number one pitcher in baseball. If Hernandez is unable to live up to the hype, the Mariners pitching staff will be a big weakness. Guardado is injury prone and less durable than he once was. Their lineup lacks clutch hitting (aside from Ichiro), and is prone to go into prolong hitting droughts.
Conclusion:
Although the disparity between this team and the rest of the division isn’t terribly substantial, a last place spot is most likely in the cards for the Mariners this year. They simply did not do enough in the off season to realistically contend with the rest of the division.
Investment Analysis:
In my opinion, the Mariners are fairly valued with the odds book makers have given them. Therefore, even with a large payoff they come with, they are still not worth the risk. The Rangers appear to be a much better deal.
Divisions Best Bet: A’s +127
Divisions Best Value: Rangers +624
Divisions Best Fade: Angels -130 (to not win the division)
