AL East Observations
(Ordered in predicted finish)
Yankees (-315)
Pros:
What was an aging, injured, inconsistent team that had several weaknesses last year, has now become a stacked team that seems to have no more weaknesses. Last year the Yankees bullpen struggled immensely prior to the ninth inning. By going out and getting Dotel, Villone, Myers and Farnsworth, the Yankees bullpen has now become one of the best in baseball when these additions are combined with the best closer in the history of the game. The Yankees starting rotation also underachieved and had their fair share of injuries last year. This caused them to lack depth and have to rely on journey men to fill their fourth and fifth spot. This year, the Yankees have arguably the deepest starting staff in baseball. When combined with their potent lineup, it’s going to be hard to beat the Yankees on any day. Mussina and Johnson provide the staff with veteran leadership, while Chacon and Wang provide them with youth and upside potential. Rounding out the rotation are two pitchers looking to regain form after disappointing seasons, Pavanno and Wright. The Yankees also fixed their main hitting weakness by getting a centerfield that will help offensively and defensively. Expect Damon to be a much welcomed addition, as the Yankees heart of the lineup will get many at bats from pitchers pitching out of the stretch. On paper, no other team comes close to the Yankees this year.
Cons:
The price. Its hard to recommend someone to lay -315 on a prop bet that ties up the bettors funds for nearly 9 months. This reason alone makes betting the Yankees not worth while. This combined with being in the best division in baseball should seal the deal on not betting this prop. The Yankees are also very old, and have several players in the twilight of their career. Expect Johnson, Mussina and Rivera to not have the years they have been accustomed to having. Sheffield and Pasoda’s best years are also behind them. The Yankees also have the tendency of putting it on cruise control, and don’t put forth their best effort until the last month or two of the season. This tendency might not prevent them from making the playoffs, but may prevent them from winning the division.
Conclusion:
It appears that the Yankees are once again the best team in baseball, and should win this division. They fixed all their holes from last year, and retained all their strengths as well. This roster looks more like an All Star team. It looks like Steinbrenner might have bought himself another ring.
Investment Analysis:
Although I would be surprised to not see the Yankees win this division with a comfortable margin, the price and time frame of the bet will make me shy away from investing in them. If the Yankees are just too good for you to pass up, instead, consider betting them to win the World Series (+275), or better yet, the AL Pennant (+225).
Red Sox (+392)
Pros:
This time last year, the Red Sox looked like the team to beat. However, the last 12 months have now made the Red Sox distant competitors to the Yankees. They, much like the Yankees, had severe bullpen problems that prevented them from being the threat they were two years ago. They, like the Yankees, tried to improve this deficiency by going after some key names in the free agent market. The additions of Riske, Saenz, and Taverez makes the Red Sox bullpen deeper and better than they were last year. However, it is the addition of Beckett which should have the most positive impact on the Red Sox pitching staff. Combined with Schilling, Clements, Wells, and Arroyo, the Red Sox have a pretty deep and experienced pitching staff if they all could stay healthy. The Red Sox still have one of the better lineups in baseball, which is a must when playing in the confines of Fenway. Ramirez and Ortiz might be the best one -two punch in the game. The Red Sox also went out and replaced Damon with a younger player with his best years ahead of him. Also expect the Red Sox to make some trades during the season in order to make a playoff push.
Cons:
As a whole, the Red Sox appear to be worse than last year. Their starting pitching staff is extremely vulnerable to injuries, age, and being worn down later in the season. Wells and Schilling should get progressively worse, while Beckett has struggled to remain healthy in the past. The Red Sox have also hinted on trading either Clement or Arroyo for a first baseman, which in my opinion may be a costly mistake. Although the Red Sox improved their bullpen, it still is mediocre at best. They still enter the season with closer concerns, as Foulke struggled with injuries, lack of confidence, and an inability to throw his change up with any effectiveness. Aside from Ortiz and Ramirez, I don’t see anything to get excited about with the Red Sox lineup. Although Loretta may prove to be an improvement, Lowell, Gonzalez, and Crisp are all downgrades from what the Red Sox had last year. Ramirez’s complaints might prove to be a distraction, and may mess up the team chemistry, and lead to an undervalued trade some time in the future.
Conclusion:
I would be more surprised to see the Red Sox finish first than I would to see them finish third. While the Blue Jays and Yankees both improved since last year, the Red Sox simply appear to be older and worse off. Although a wild card birth is still a good possibility, a division title might be wishful thinking.
Investment Analysis:
Rarely do you see a team as good as the Red Sox get such a high payout. This reason alone makes them something to consider. However, line makers have put this price on them for a reason- even after knowing they would get a lot of money from the public on them. The books are telling you something with this line. Proceed with caution, or better yet, don’t invest in them.
Blue Jays (+700)
Pros:
This is my American League sleeper team. During the off-season, they quietly went out in the free agent market and got some big name players, as well as some young players with upside potential. By adding Burnett to the rotation, the Blue Jays may have the most explosive top three pitchers in baseball, all whom have upside potential as well. Holliday, Burnett, and Chacin should provide the Blue Jays with many series sweeps, as all three will be hard to hit. The Blue Jays also improved their bullpen by getting the best closer in the free agent market. For years, the Blue Jays lacked an ideal closer, a variable that prevented them from getting out of mediocrity. Expect Ryan to be able to hold onto almost all the leads the Jays young staff will give him. Hitting was also an Achilles heal for the Blue Jays last year. They lacked power in front of the lineup, and also lacked hitters that could get on in the back of the lineup. The Blue Jays somewhat fixed both deficiencies by getting Glauss to provide them with more power, Overbay to provide them with bottom order depth, and Molina to provide them with clutch hitting and defense. Molina also is an excellent signal caller, an intangible that will provide a great asset to their young pitching staff. The Blue Jays also have depth with their backups (Hillenbrand and Koskie), and young hitters with a lot of upside (Rios, Johnson and Hill). All in all, the Blue Jays are much improved, and have a lot to be excited about.
Cons:
Although much improved, they are still not in the same league as the Yankees. Their lineup is still average, as their power hitters lack clutch hitting and the ability to hit for average. They lack speed, hitters that are known to draw walks, as well as hitters that could hit for average. Their fourth and fifth starters are average at best for being just that. Their bullpen lacks an ideal set up man, and still has some concerns. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, the Blue Jays lack the payroll to make in- season improvements via the trade to make a playoff push. Therefore, even if they are on top during the last six weeks of the season, expect both the Yankees and Red Sox to do something drastic to prevent the Blue Jays from winning the division title.
Conclusion:
Not yet. This team will surprise a lot of people this year, as most don’t realize how good their top 3 pitchers are. However, their lineup is not good enough to win this division. Although improved, they still have some way to go to take this division from the Evil Empire. With that said, I am looking forward them to providing me a positive return on investment by betting on them throughout the season.
Investment Analysis:
Again, like the Red Sox, you wont see a team as good as the Blue Jays get these kinds of odds (except for the Phillies). However, +700 is still not enough for me to take them to beat out both the Red Sox and Yankees.
Orioles (+5000)
Pros:
The Orioles were one of the biggest underachieving teams last year. Expect them to put forth a better effort this year, which in return should result in a better record. Although lacking any stars in their starting rotation, the Orioles have a deep staff which will provide consistency throughout the season. Benson and Lopez are two above average pitchers which will provide veteran leadership, while Chen and Bedard are two quality southpaws that any staff would want. Rounding out the rotation is Cabrera, a raw pitcher that could be downright dominant at times. Their lineup, much like their rotation, is slightly above average. There might not be a team in baseball with a better second baseman, third baseman, shortstop trio.
Cons:
Their bullpen is plain bad. Stuffing Ray in the closer roll may prove costly. Lacking an ideal setup man and other bullpen pitchers may even prove more costly. Although their starting rotation is deep, lacking an ace may make the Orioles once again vulnerable to prolonged losing streaks. Don’t expect Roberts to have the same year as last year. Tejada might also get traded. A team’s outfield and first baseman usually derives most of a team’s power. However, the Orioles outfield and first baseman lack just that. This will be their ultimate demise.
Conclusion:
The Orioles are not in the same league as the three teams mentioned above. Their hitting will be too reliant on Tejada, while their pitching cant be reliant on anyone. With that said, it’s their bullpen that will be their biggest weakness. A division title will be nowhere in sight, however, a .500 record might.
Investment Analysis:
Save your money.
Devil Rays (+9044)
Pros:
One of the most intriguing teams last year. If it weren’t for their horrible bullpen, the Devil Rays may have flirted with a .500 record last year. Their lineup is stockpiled with young stars in the making. Their lineup is also stockpiled with hybrid hitters that posses the rare asset of speed and power. Expect them to put some runs on the board this year. The addition of Young should provide this young team with an outspoken veteran leader who also can hit. Their pitching staff is very young and raw. For this reason, they might put forth better performances than one might originally think. Kazmir is a star in the making.
Cons:
Still too young, with many holes, weaknesses, and purpose for this team to compete each day. Aside from Kazmir, their starting rotation may be a nightmare. Fossum and Hendrickson are two veteran scrubs, while the back of the rotation should still be in the minors. Last year the Devil Rays had the worst bullpen in baseball. This year it got worse. Getting rid of their only reliable bullpen pitcher in a trade, which happened to be their closer, is something I just don’t understand. What a mess.
Conclusion:
They are young, exciting, and may turn a few heads. However, their bullpen and starting rotation looks more like a Triple A team than a professional ball club. The Devil Rays are worse this year than they were last year.
Investment Analysis:
Save your money.
Divisions Best Bet: Yankees +225 to win the AL Pennant
Divisions Best Value: Red Sox +392
Divisions Best Fade: Yankees +300 (to not win the division). (also a good hedge to the best bet prop).
(Ordered in predicted finish)
Yankees (-315)
Pros:
What was an aging, injured, inconsistent team that had several weaknesses last year, has now become a stacked team that seems to have no more weaknesses. Last year the Yankees bullpen struggled immensely prior to the ninth inning. By going out and getting Dotel, Villone, Myers and Farnsworth, the Yankees bullpen has now become one of the best in baseball when these additions are combined with the best closer in the history of the game. The Yankees starting rotation also underachieved and had their fair share of injuries last year. This caused them to lack depth and have to rely on journey men to fill their fourth and fifth spot. This year, the Yankees have arguably the deepest starting staff in baseball. When combined with their potent lineup, it’s going to be hard to beat the Yankees on any day. Mussina and Johnson provide the staff with veteran leadership, while Chacon and Wang provide them with youth and upside potential. Rounding out the rotation are two pitchers looking to regain form after disappointing seasons, Pavanno and Wright. The Yankees also fixed their main hitting weakness by getting a centerfield that will help offensively and defensively. Expect Damon to be a much welcomed addition, as the Yankees heart of the lineup will get many at bats from pitchers pitching out of the stretch. On paper, no other team comes close to the Yankees this year.
Cons:
The price. Its hard to recommend someone to lay -315 on a prop bet that ties up the bettors funds for nearly 9 months. This reason alone makes betting the Yankees not worth while. This combined with being in the best division in baseball should seal the deal on not betting this prop. The Yankees are also very old, and have several players in the twilight of their career. Expect Johnson, Mussina and Rivera to not have the years they have been accustomed to having. Sheffield and Pasoda’s best years are also behind them. The Yankees also have the tendency of putting it on cruise control, and don’t put forth their best effort until the last month or two of the season. This tendency might not prevent them from making the playoffs, but may prevent them from winning the division.
Conclusion:
It appears that the Yankees are once again the best team in baseball, and should win this division. They fixed all their holes from last year, and retained all their strengths as well. This roster looks more like an All Star team. It looks like Steinbrenner might have bought himself another ring.
Investment Analysis:
Although I would be surprised to not see the Yankees win this division with a comfortable margin, the price and time frame of the bet will make me shy away from investing in them. If the Yankees are just too good for you to pass up, instead, consider betting them to win the World Series (+275), or better yet, the AL Pennant (+225).
Red Sox (+392)
Pros:
This time last year, the Red Sox looked like the team to beat. However, the last 12 months have now made the Red Sox distant competitors to the Yankees. They, much like the Yankees, had severe bullpen problems that prevented them from being the threat they were two years ago. They, like the Yankees, tried to improve this deficiency by going after some key names in the free agent market. The additions of Riske, Saenz, and Taverez makes the Red Sox bullpen deeper and better than they were last year. However, it is the addition of Beckett which should have the most positive impact on the Red Sox pitching staff. Combined with Schilling, Clements, Wells, and Arroyo, the Red Sox have a pretty deep and experienced pitching staff if they all could stay healthy. The Red Sox still have one of the better lineups in baseball, which is a must when playing in the confines of Fenway. Ramirez and Ortiz might be the best one -two punch in the game. The Red Sox also went out and replaced Damon with a younger player with his best years ahead of him. Also expect the Red Sox to make some trades during the season in order to make a playoff push.
Cons:
As a whole, the Red Sox appear to be worse than last year. Their starting pitching staff is extremely vulnerable to injuries, age, and being worn down later in the season. Wells and Schilling should get progressively worse, while Beckett has struggled to remain healthy in the past. The Red Sox have also hinted on trading either Clement or Arroyo for a first baseman, which in my opinion may be a costly mistake. Although the Red Sox improved their bullpen, it still is mediocre at best. They still enter the season with closer concerns, as Foulke struggled with injuries, lack of confidence, and an inability to throw his change up with any effectiveness. Aside from Ortiz and Ramirez, I don’t see anything to get excited about with the Red Sox lineup. Although Loretta may prove to be an improvement, Lowell, Gonzalez, and Crisp are all downgrades from what the Red Sox had last year. Ramirez’s complaints might prove to be a distraction, and may mess up the team chemistry, and lead to an undervalued trade some time in the future.
Conclusion:
I would be more surprised to see the Red Sox finish first than I would to see them finish third. While the Blue Jays and Yankees both improved since last year, the Red Sox simply appear to be older and worse off. Although a wild card birth is still a good possibility, a division title might be wishful thinking.
Investment Analysis:
Rarely do you see a team as good as the Red Sox get such a high payout. This reason alone makes them something to consider. However, line makers have put this price on them for a reason- even after knowing they would get a lot of money from the public on them. The books are telling you something with this line. Proceed with caution, or better yet, don’t invest in them.
Blue Jays (+700)
Pros:
This is my American League sleeper team. During the off-season, they quietly went out in the free agent market and got some big name players, as well as some young players with upside potential. By adding Burnett to the rotation, the Blue Jays may have the most explosive top three pitchers in baseball, all whom have upside potential as well. Holliday, Burnett, and Chacin should provide the Blue Jays with many series sweeps, as all three will be hard to hit. The Blue Jays also improved their bullpen by getting the best closer in the free agent market. For years, the Blue Jays lacked an ideal closer, a variable that prevented them from getting out of mediocrity. Expect Ryan to be able to hold onto almost all the leads the Jays young staff will give him. Hitting was also an Achilles heal for the Blue Jays last year. They lacked power in front of the lineup, and also lacked hitters that could get on in the back of the lineup. The Blue Jays somewhat fixed both deficiencies by getting Glauss to provide them with more power, Overbay to provide them with bottom order depth, and Molina to provide them with clutch hitting and defense. Molina also is an excellent signal caller, an intangible that will provide a great asset to their young pitching staff. The Blue Jays also have depth with their backups (Hillenbrand and Koskie), and young hitters with a lot of upside (Rios, Johnson and Hill). All in all, the Blue Jays are much improved, and have a lot to be excited about.
Cons:
Although much improved, they are still not in the same league as the Yankees. Their lineup is still average, as their power hitters lack clutch hitting and the ability to hit for average. They lack speed, hitters that are known to draw walks, as well as hitters that could hit for average. Their fourth and fifth starters are average at best for being just that. Their bullpen lacks an ideal set up man, and still has some concerns. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, the Blue Jays lack the payroll to make in- season improvements via the trade to make a playoff push. Therefore, even if they are on top during the last six weeks of the season, expect both the Yankees and Red Sox to do something drastic to prevent the Blue Jays from winning the division title.
Conclusion:
Not yet. This team will surprise a lot of people this year, as most don’t realize how good their top 3 pitchers are. However, their lineup is not good enough to win this division. Although improved, they still have some way to go to take this division from the Evil Empire. With that said, I am looking forward them to providing me a positive return on investment by betting on them throughout the season.
Investment Analysis:
Again, like the Red Sox, you wont see a team as good as the Blue Jays get these kinds of odds (except for the Phillies). However, +700 is still not enough for me to take them to beat out both the Red Sox and Yankees.
Orioles (+5000)
Pros:
The Orioles were one of the biggest underachieving teams last year. Expect them to put forth a better effort this year, which in return should result in a better record. Although lacking any stars in their starting rotation, the Orioles have a deep staff which will provide consistency throughout the season. Benson and Lopez are two above average pitchers which will provide veteran leadership, while Chen and Bedard are two quality southpaws that any staff would want. Rounding out the rotation is Cabrera, a raw pitcher that could be downright dominant at times. Their lineup, much like their rotation, is slightly above average. There might not be a team in baseball with a better second baseman, third baseman, shortstop trio.
Cons:
Their bullpen is plain bad. Stuffing Ray in the closer roll may prove costly. Lacking an ideal setup man and other bullpen pitchers may even prove more costly. Although their starting rotation is deep, lacking an ace may make the Orioles once again vulnerable to prolonged losing streaks. Don’t expect Roberts to have the same year as last year. Tejada might also get traded. A team’s outfield and first baseman usually derives most of a team’s power. However, the Orioles outfield and first baseman lack just that. This will be their ultimate demise.
Conclusion:
The Orioles are not in the same league as the three teams mentioned above. Their hitting will be too reliant on Tejada, while their pitching cant be reliant on anyone. With that said, it’s their bullpen that will be their biggest weakness. A division title will be nowhere in sight, however, a .500 record might.
Investment Analysis:
Save your money.
Devil Rays (+9044)
Pros:
One of the most intriguing teams last year. If it weren’t for their horrible bullpen, the Devil Rays may have flirted with a .500 record last year. Their lineup is stockpiled with young stars in the making. Their lineup is also stockpiled with hybrid hitters that posses the rare asset of speed and power. Expect them to put some runs on the board this year. The addition of Young should provide this young team with an outspoken veteran leader who also can hit. Their pitching staff is very young and raw. For this reason, they might put forth better performances than one might originally think. Kazmir is a star in the making.
Cons:
Still too young, with many holes, weaknesses, and purpose for this team to compete each day. Aside from Kazmir, their starting rotation may be a nightmare. Fossum and Hendrickson are two veteran scrubs, while the back of the rotation should still be in the minors. Last year the Devil Rays had the worst bullpen in baseball. This year it got worse. Getting rid of their only reliable bullpen pitcher in a trade, which happened to be their closer, is something I just don’t understand. What a mess.
Conclusion:
They are young, exciting, and may turn a few heads. However, their bullpen and starting rotation looks more like a Triple A team than a professional ball club. The Devil Rays are worse this year than they were last year.
Investment Analysis:
Save your money.
Divisions Best Bet: Yankees +225 to win the AL Pennant
Divisions Best Value: Red Sox +392
Divisions Best Fade: Yankees +300 (to not win the division). (also a good hedge to the best bet prop).
