I don't think it will pass. Its an election year, and you've got less then 8 months until election day. It isn't even scheduled for a floor vote yet, let alone getting through the Senate, and all the congressional holidays. I think more then likely this bill dies with the new congress.
The figure quote is $10-12 billion worldwide, maybe $6 bil in the US, but its a number Jay Cohen and I have debated as possibly being somewhat higher than actual. No matter, next year there will be more money bet offshore than ever before. That is my friends a stone cold LOCK! The only thing that could make offshore betting revenues go down is some major major scandal, say Party Poker is proven to be seriously rigged with very clear proof. Short of something like that people will bet more next year and the year after than they did this year. And Goodlatte/Kyl/Leach and the others can't do shit about it.
I too don't have confidence in the number, but I think that it's WAY HIGHER. By my estimates, Betfair's turnover is probably more than that amount on it's own(will check exactly tomorrow...). Even if much of it is the same money, it should still make a lot more than the projected 12 billion net stake.
I was obviously wrong then. AFAIK, the biggest bookies in the world(Laddies, Willhill, Coral etc) have a hard time breaking the 200 million pounds bareer on an year's net revenue and that is including Casino games and FOBT's. Betfair is @ 210 USD from what I last heard, so your assumtion was more than correct, in which case a 12 billion digit sounds not only wrong but flatout ridiculous. If the big 5 can hardly make for 1 billion(and let's assume Party Poker ads for another billion...), there is no way in hell the rest of the industry sums up to 10 more. I'd agree with you, the number is ridiculous in that case.
Edit: Going to bed, will check some numbers and come back tomorrow...
Edit: Going to bed, will check some numbers and come back tomorrow...
It will never pass, any pole they have ever done has come out at least 80-20 against it, the congress will never pass a bill that is impossible to enforce. No one will ever spend a day behind bars for placing a bet, stop worrying. There are far greater issues in hand right now than some anti-gambling bill, and lets not forget, it already is illegal to bet online .
The problem won't be placing bets....it will be in funding and collecting from your account. The Leach bill will make it illegal for a bank to receive eft's, cash checks, etc from offshore sites, including the Netellers and Firepays of the world. So, the bank lobby is our best chance....
