The area to watch for is the 5th through 12th seeds is the land of upsets. 6 out of every 7 occasions an upset comes from properly seeded matchups comes from an Automatic Bid rising to the occasion and upsetting an At Large bid. The notion that "it doesn't matter how you got here" is nonsense. Character teams who were good enough to win their conference tournaments are ALWAYS more dangerous than those invited through the good ol' boys network. In every sense of the word, astute handicappers know that the Conference Tournaments are an "audition" for the main event.
There is a very high percentage of "upsets" when 2 "At Large" bids face each other. The underdog will pull the upset near 50% of the time when two top ranked (top 32) "at large" teams face each other, so when we are looking for upsets, look for them when 2 at large bids meet and when teams who are seeded 9th through 12th are teams who are earned bids facing favored teams who are "At Large" bids.
There is a very high percentage of "upsets" when 2 "At Large" bids face each other. The underdog will pull the upset near 50% of the time when two top ranked (top 32) "at large" teams face each other, so when we are looking for upsets, look for them when 2 at large bids meet and when teams who are seeded 9th through 12th are teams who are earned bids facing favored teams who are "At Large" bids.
