What is the maximum % of bankroll one should put on a bet?

quantumleap · Mar 20, 2006

My bankroll has been on a rollercoaster since the first of the year. At least it's come back from being down but it's been higher. I realize I've been betting amounts that are too large during the times I'm winning. I figure if I'm winning then if I bet more I'll win more. Obviously that's not the correct betting situation.

I'm interested in what works for the rest of you.

Iceman · Mar 20, 2006

I think there are more than one way to skin a cat but I have learned (the hard way) that flat betting is WAY WAY less stressfull and to me that means everything. Been there done that with feeling like games are E-Z winners and than BAM, you know the rest.

oldmanTED · Mar 20, 2006

If you are finding your bankroll acting like a rollercoaster, you should reduce the maximum wager to no more then 2% of your bankroll to maintain a more even keel.

If your bankroll is relatively steady with no major swings, a maximum of 3-5% should be the ceiling.

Christian · Mar 20, 2006

you're going to get a million answers on this one...

for me, i bet 1% of my BR on EACH and EVERY play with almost no exceptions.

sure, every now and then i'll have a play that is so strong i'll just have to bet a little more...but even then it's only 1.5%. but those 1.5% plays are few and far between each year.

so, the easy answer for me, probably 99% of all my plays each year are risking 1% of my bankroll.

i would NEVER recommend anyone else risk any more than 2% of their bankroll on any play. anything between 1-2% is fine, but more than 2% is way too risky.

Insiders · Mar 20, 2006

Naturally it ALL comes down to Pickin Winners first off.
Next use the 1-5 units, by 1 being 1% and 5 being 5%. Some will say this is too much, and just like ALL things you have to win those larger bets!

The bigger the bet, the bigger the sweat!

Again its ALL about pickin Winners !!

nimue77 · Mar 20, 2006

Put into play or risk?

quantumleap said:
My bankroll has been on a rollercoaster since the first of the year. At least it's come back from being down but it's been higher. I realize I've been betting amounts that are too large during the times I'm winning. I figure if I'm winning then if I bet more I'll win more. Obviously that's not the correct betting situation.

I'm interested in what works for the rest of you.

quantumleap · Mar 20, 2006

I think I will limit myself to 2% for most of my bets. I feel that if I have a better understanding of a team then I may go up to 5%.

Thanks for the input.

quantumleap · Mar 20, 2006

nimue77 said:
Put into play or risk?

Risk.

viking611 · Mar 20, 2006

MrJ · Mar 20, 2006

viking611 said:
100%

This is the correct answer in theory providing it isn't overbetting (eg the event is rigged 100%). Of course there is no one true correct answer, since it really depends on the tolerance of variance and risk of the individual.

oldmanTed, why suggest 3-5% max if his BR is stready? 3-5% will produce very large fluctuations so it doesn't really matter if he's been 'steady' or not.

christian, I don't disagree with your conservative approach and agree about recommending a conservative amount, but saying 2%+ is too risky is a bit silly. It's fine if the bettor knows what they are doing.

insiders, 1-5% spread? Are you saying your 5% bets are 5x better than your 1% bet?

Christian · Mar 20, 2006

Mr J said:
christian, I don't disagree with your conservative approach and agree about recommending a conservative amount, but saying 2%+ is too risky is a bit silly. It's fine if the bettor knows what they are doing.

quote]

the problem is, of all the bettors who think they "know what they're doing"....

99% of them DO NOT.

that's why i will NEVER recommend to ANYONE to risk more than 2% of their BR on any given play.

it's a recipe for disaster probably 99% of the time. but everyone wants to believe that they are the 1%....but it just ain't so!

quantumleap · Mar 20, 2006

Christian said:
Mr J said:

christian, I don't disagree with your conservative approach and agree about recommending a conservative amount, but saying 2%+ is too risky is a bit silly. It's fine if the bettor knows what they are doing.

quote]

the problem is, of all the bettors who think they "know what they're doing"....

99% of them DO NOT.

that's why i will NEVER recommend to ANYONE to risk more than 2% of their BR on any given play.

it's a recipe for disaster probably 99% of the time. but everyone wants to believe that they are the 1%....but it just ain't so!

Click to expand...

Christian:

I guess I'm looking for a general guideline in betting games I think will have a good chance of winning. However, I have not been doing well at those bets. I do have a few system plays that have been doing rather well and I've been following cappers that are doing well. So as far as my "hunch" bets I'll limit them to 2%. On the bets that I've been doing rather well I will limit them to 5%. I think that will prevent the wild swings.

oldmanTED · Mar 20, 2006

Mr.J:

When a player is having a rollercoaster ride, it is best to cut back on both the number of plays and the ceiling of the maximum percentage for a top play. In most cases, in this situation, I would recommend mostly 1% on your plays with a ceiling of 2% on a play if so warranted.

When a player is having a long steady run, not too streaky either up or down, then he/she can be a bit more aggressive by having the base remain at 1%, but raise the maximum ceiling to 3% to 5%, if he/she has the experience to differentiate between what warrants a play to be increased. The player must be able to have a better read on the stronger plays before attempting to use this variable method. It isn't meant for most, but for those that use a variable method the risk/reward has a significant compounding affect on the bankroll and thereby the dollar amount of future plays.

Christian · Mar 20, 2006

quantumleap said:
Christian said:

Christian:

I guess I'm looking for a general guideline in betting games I think will have a good chance of winning. However, I have not been doing well at those bets. I do have a few system plays that have been doing rather well and I've been following cappers that are doing well. So as far as my "hunch" bets I'll limit them to 2%. On the bets that I've been doing rather well I will limit them to 5%. I think that will prevent the wild swings.

Click to expand...

i hate to be the bearer of bad news...but if you're betting 2% on "hunch" bets and 5% on ANY bets....

YOU WILL GO BROKE...IT WILL HAPPEN. it may take awhile, hell, it may take a few years, but exposing yourself that much (2-5%) WILL bankrupt you eventually.

why don't you play it safe...stick with 1% for the next couple hundred bets (500-1,000 bets would be much better, but most people are impatient and would never have the discipline to take this business seriously)...

anyway, after a couple hundred bets (at 1%) reassess yourself and your abilities (and the people you've been following and betting)

if you're doing well, maybe resize to 2% and try again for a couple hundred more bets (again, 500-1,000 bets would be much, much better)

once you see the wild swings in bankroll that occur even at 1 and 2%, i really doubt you'll want to resize any larger.

the problem is, NO ONE IN THIS BUSINESS HAS ANY FREAKING PATIENCE.

everyone wants to dive in the pool with looking...that is GAMBLING. i don't gamble. i apply a small edge in my favor, over and over again.

unless you have a couple THOUSAND plays under you belt, YOU DO NOT KNOW IF YOU CAN PICK WINNERS...SIMPLE AS THAT.

it takes THOUSANDS of plays to prove a long-term win advantage, NOT HUNDREDS. so why risk it in the meantime???? play it safe until you know for sure what your abilities are (and the abilites of those you follow and bet after)

ThePig+ · Mar 20, 2006

QL, 2% of your BR should be your ceiling.

CoachLT · Mar 20, 2006

My NORMAL unit plays will fall into the 1% to 5% range. The Rubberband Games are between 8 % to 12% with the total wagered NO MORE than 33% of entire BR. This applies to College Football ONLY! I play less than 1%on NFL and 2% on CBB. I know I will win on CFB and I know I will lose on NFL. I guess you could say I am a one trick pony. Gosh, I LOVE College Football! LT:money: :103631605

oldmanTED · Mar 20, 2006

Coach LT said:
My NORMAL unit plays will fall into the 1% to 5% range. The Rubberband Games are between 8 % to 12% with the total wagered NO MORE than 33% of entire BR. This applies to College Football ONLY! I play less than 1%on NFL and 2% on CBB. I know I will win on CFB and I know I will lose on NFL. I guess you could say I am a one trick pony. Gosh, I LOVE College Football! LT:money:

Coach:

How long has your range been 1% to 5%? For me, started out flat betting in my 20's then began variable at 1% to 5% in my 30's. Nearly 30 years now using this method. Hope I don't go bankrupt. BTW, always important to know which is your stronger sport and make your plays accordingly. Wise man, my kindred brother.

MrJ · Mar 20, 2006

oldmanTED said:
Mr.J:

When a player is having a rollercoaster ride, it is best to cut back on both the number of plays and the ceiling of the maximum percentage for a top play.

If they can't handle the variance I agree.

if he/she has the experience to differentiate between what warrants a play to be increased.

Ok that is fine then, as long as they can handle the variance. I thought you were saying betting 3-5% (increasing variance) is fine if your results have been steady.

Christian, I didn't suggest that you should recommend people bet >2%, because as you said most people don't know what they are doing. Just wanted to point out that betting more is ok IF you know what you are doing, because you seemed to suggest that it is too risky in any case (ie even if say they know they will hit 55% on that bet).

Most people should really be betting nothing anyway. 1% is a good recommendation simply because it lowers their turnover, therefore reducing their losses

I'd recommend people flat bet too.

TIGERGUY · Mar 20, 2006

christian, that 1% of BR, is it adjusted daily?

CHOPTALK · Mar 20, 2006

Christian said:
you're going to get a million answers on this one...

for me, i bet 1% of my BR on EACH and EVERY play with almost no exceptions.

sure, every now and then i'll have a play that is so strong i'll just have to bet a little more...but even then it's only 1.5%. but those 1.5% plays are few and far between each year.

so, the easy answer for me, probably 99% of all my plays each year are risking 1% of my bankroll.

i would NEVER recommend anyone else risk any more than 2% of their bankroll on any play. anything between 1-2% is fine, but more than 2% is way too risky.

very solid advice right there.

What is the maximum % of bankroll one should put on a bet?

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