It doesn't really matter.
If the way he caps each game it's still the same, and there is value on his play, the play still has a positive expectation. Also each game it's an individual event. It has no correlation with anybodys "trends" or anything. So in theory for every of his game you don't follow, you are throwing money away.
If the way he caps each game it's still the same, and there is value on his play, the play still has a positive expectation. Also each game it's an individual event. It has no correlation with anybodys "trends" or anything. So in theory for every of his game you don't follow, you are throwing money away.
Heres my opinion.
Tonight I went into the college basketball forum and looked for a capper that was slumping. All the people that went 6-1 in there last seven or 3-0 last night I bypassed.
Now I also only checked the threads of the proven cappers that know what they are doing. Some people just flat out suck. I did not even look at those.
I picked the most respected capper I could find that has been slumping.
I found what I was looking for and made a play on SOUTH CAROLINA.:money8: :money8: :money8:
I believe in law of averages. Id rather play a good capper that has just lost 10 in a row than a good capper thats just won 10 in a row.
The one that has lost 10 straight has a better shot than the guy whos won 10 straight IMO.
Tonight I went into the college basketball forum and looked for a capper that was slumping. All the people that went 6-1 in there last seven or 3-0 last night I bypassed.
Now I also only checked the threads of the proven cappers that know what they are doing. Some people just flat out suck. I did not even look at those.
I picked the most respected capper I could find that has been slumping.
I found what I was looking for and made a play on SOUTH CAROLINA.:money8: :money8: :money8:
I believe in law of averages. Id rather play a good capper that has just lost 10 in a row than a good capper thats just won 10 in a row.
The one that has lost 10 straight has a better shot than the guy whos won 10 straight IMO.
CHOPTALK said:
good strategy...but at the same time you miss out on some awesome runs people can go on. Like Ace Ace's during the end of the NFL season extending to the playoffs. True it was probably a once in a lifetime run...but IMO there is no telling when a streak, winning or losing, is gonna end. So i'd always choose to ride the winning streak then following someone on a losing streak thinking this is gonna be the day they turn it around.
Same thing goes for following streaks in baseball.
CHOPTALK said:
Come on, Chop! I expected something like this from some of the newbies but honestly not from a respected poster/capper like you. The law of averages doesn't care about your 10 previous picks! Anything else being equal, the one that has lost 10 straight has the same shot as the guy who's won 10 straight IMO.
Sorry, I don't want the capper who has lost ten in a row, and it has nothing to do with how "cold" or "due" he may be and everything to do with his mental state.
I know how I feel during a ten-game losing streak. It is REALLY tough for anybody, even the best, to stay level-headed under those conditions.
Too much risk that the quality of the next pick is going to suffer because of the crushing weight of a losing streak.
I know how I feel during a ten-game losing streak. It is REALLY tough for anybody, even the best, to stay level-headed under those conditions.
Too much risk that the quality of the next pick is going to suffer because of the crushing weight of a losing streak.
I like to follow good cappers, no matter their current streak, the small losing streaks are ok with me, as it usually turns around somewhat in the short term, the small winning streaks are ok with me too, as it can go on to make a long winning run, i find myself hard put to bet on a guy that's 11-1 last 12, or 1-11 last 12.
For example i rode the great streak of chop to the 11-2 mark, then downgraded my bets and followed bailey adding chops pick as a regular size bet, now that bailey's lost 3 in a row i am ready to tail him today, and also chop that's gotten the due factor somewhat out of the way.
In the end everyone has its way of choosing when to tail, it's just a way to FEEL safer, it probably hurts as much as it helps, but in the meantime, you feel safer while losing or making money, and that's a bonus.
For example i rode the great streak of chop to the 11-2 mark, then downgraded my bets and followed bailey adding chops pick as a regular size bet, now that bailey's lost 3 in a row i am ready to tail him today, and also chop that's gotten the due factor somewhat out of the way.
In the end everyone has its way of choosing when to tail, it's just a way to FEEL safer, it probably hurts as much as it helps, but in the meantime, you feel safer while losing or making money, and that's a bonus.
There is always the option of managing your bankroll so that slumps are not as sore...
say 0.5% = 1 unit, in a slump your bet size decreases as your roll decreases, but obviously increases as your roll increases. You may not think that this saves much $$ in a slump but it ay be the equivalent of saving 1-2 units in a bad run...
just my thoughts...
Kenny
say 0.5% = 1 unit, in a slump your bet size decreases as your roll decreases, but obviously increases as your roll increases. You may not think that this saves much $$ in a slump but it ay be the equivalent of saving 1-2 units in a bad run...
just my thoughts...
Kenny
giorg0s said:
Everyone who has responded in this thread so far needs to reread this post by giorg0s, because this is the correct answer. And what I mean by "this is the correct answer" is that this is how winning gambler's think. I'm constantly amazed that with all the excellent hanicapping minds around here, there is such a drastic lack of understanding of fundamental gambling and prob/stat logic.
The key, of course, is that the hanicapper is still doing the same things he/she always does and not letting the losing streak interfere with his/her handicapping abilities. Bill Gray makes some good points in his post about this.
For a better understanding of some of the basic principles I'm talking about, people here should read some of David Sklansky's or Mason Malmuth's books. "Gambling Theory and Other Topics" would be a good place to start. You can thank me later.
And, before I get flamed, if this post comes off as condescending, I apologize, as that was not my intent. I will concede that almost every poster on this forum knows more about handicapping sports than me.
I'd need more data on the cappers involved. 10 plays is not indicative of anything in the long run. ktvegas makes a good point, many cappers cannot handle 10 losses in a row, especially if they are lower volume players. So they might be quicker to modify what would normally be a winning strategy in the hopes that they could break out of their "slump". A more experienced, or higher volume player who has good money management should be able to weather a 10 play losing streak without it effecting the way they make selections. You'd have to know what kind of cappers you were dealing with. Even then, given one play, I don't think it really matters who you follow, and the results are pretty meaningless.
