Scalping by Dummies

Labeeb · Mar 21, 2006

I normally don't seek out these situations, but I found an 8 cent scalp on a line that was +178/-170. I threw together a quick spreadsheet to help me attempt to maximize the scalp (I could only get $200 down on the +178 before the line moved). Here's what I came up with:

$350 @ -170 = 555.888
$200 @ +178 = 556.00

Grade my first scalping attempt.

trytrytry · Mar 21, 2006

nice nice nice.
does not look like much but do that 10 times and see how many transaction fees that pays for....

viking611 · Mar 21, 2006

:toast:

actually not bad

SportSavant · Mar 21, 2006

200/356

356/209.41

Here is how I would have set it up, if the dog wins I break even, if the favorite wins, I win 9.41$....

obviously the likelehood is that the favorite will win so this is my favorite way of setting it up.....

Labeeb · Mar 21, 2006

SS,
That certainly makes sense. I didn't know how long it would be around so in my rushed effort that's what I came up with. I'd be curious to see if weighing the scalp to the favorite is the preferred method.

Woody0 · Mar 21, 2006

I prefer to do it like you did Labeeb to guarantee a win but will weight to the favourite at high chalk. Scalped a -260 chalk yesterday which lost, didn't make a penny and the money went into a book I rarely use.

SportSavant · Mar 21, 2006

Labeeb said:
SS,
That certainly makes sense. I didn't know how long it would be around so in my rushed effort that's what I came up with. I'd be curious to see if weighing the scalp to the favorite is the preferred method.

the math works easier if you 'weigh' the scalp to the dog of course.....

sometimes in the interest of time, that is what I would do, because you know those odds are gonna change soon.....

if you can find 1 of these that profits per day, that is an extra 300$ a month for your bankroll....

:modemman:

nimue77 · Mar 21, 2006

Your better offf weighing towards the side that is more off market.

Labeeb said:
SS,
That certainly makes sense. I didn't know how long it would be around so in my rushed effort that's what I came up with. I'd be curious to see if weighing the scalp to the favorite is the preferred method.

nimue77 · Mar 21, 2006

Yes, the favorite is more likely to win....but you also in more total if you do it the opposite way...especially with a high moneyline.

SportSavant said:
200/356

356/209.41

Here is how I would have set it up, if the dog wins I break even, if the favorite wins, I win 9.41$....

obviously the likelehood is that the favorite will win so this is my favorite way of setting it up.....

Labeeb · Mar 22, 2006

nimue77 said:
Your better offf weighing towards the side that is more off market.

This is something that I'm very weak in, line movements. I've tried working on it a bit, but I can't seem to get a good grasp on them. BTW, this was a horse matchup where the market tends to be very volatile given the amount and type of action received. It's not uncommon to see +150 dogs turn into -120 favorites by post time.

peskypup · Mar 22, 2006

if in doubt

here is a simple rule which has stood me in good stead for scalping over the past 4 years and $60k profit in scalps:

IF IN DOUBT WEIGHT THE DOG

I monitor the results of each and every scalp and rest assured that it works. Note the words "if in doubt" - I would say 70-80% of my scalps weight the dog the rest weight the fave.

Weight the fav when:

1. if its an opening line and the fav line clearly out.
2. if its a big line move and the fav line stands out.
3. you are capping the sport and the fav line is the value play.
4. you know the book on the fav line is weak in this sport.

In most sports at most times, books shade the lines to offer slightly better dog prices than fav prices. In order to make extra profit from mug punters who mostly back faves. Hence there is value in the dog most of the time, even more so when the fav is a big public player or team.

winbet · Mar 22, 2006

For me it all depends on how much I get. If its an insignificant amount then I weigh it in the Favs favour on the M/L, in any other circumstance other than a strong opinion, I even the bet.:drink:

Stickie · Mar 22, 2006

I have a question about scalps.
I have hit a munber of 7 and 8 cent scalps lately, but have been noticing another opportunity. If a book allows you to buy points and you end up with a 1/2 point middle at a cost of 1 cent is it better to take the 7 cent scalp or keep buying the 1/2 point and wait for it to fall on the number so you push one and cash the other entirely.

peskypup · Mar 22, 2006

stickie

Stickie

The answer to this is a huge thread all on its own. It depends on the sport, the event, the particular number involved to name but 3 factors.

In NFL 3 and perhaps 7 and 10 are worth it, but nothing much else. In NBA numbers 4 through 8 are probably worth it and nothing much else.

Personally on marginal calls I middle / side more when I am generally winning and prepared to take more risk on my bets.

cincy_ · Mar 22, 2006

Stickie said:
I have a question about scalps.
I have hit a munber of 7 and 8 cent scalps lately, but have been noticing another opportunity. If a book allows you to buy points and you end up with a 1/2 point middle at a cost of 1 cent is it better to take the 7 cent scalp or keep buying the 1/2 point and wait for it to fall on the number so you push one and cash the other entirely.

My advice is not for this question specifically, but for ANY question like this ...

You don't have to do one or the other. You can do BOTH. You can do 70% of one and 30% of the other, or 20% and 80% or just go 50-50.

Yesterday, for South Carolina in the 2nd half I was uncomfortable with my original FSU wager so I wanted to hedge.

I took a little of the moneyline at +118
I took a little bit of SC +1 at +100

I didn't have to choose one over the other - just decide how much I was going to place on each wager..

Labeeb · Mar 22, 2006

This same exact scalp came back up again for 6 cents this time. Decided to weigh it towards the favorite this time.

Stocks · Mar 22, 2006

I was thinking about scapling the other day I'd just do this

use your what ever unit you want $100 $1000 whatever and use the same unit for both just go risk amount for the dog and win amount for the fav

$100 to win $178
$170 to win $100

Less math involved this way

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