Forum: Classic Threads From The Past - Visit here for a great "blast from the past" and view some terrific, informative and interesting "Classic Threads" posted by thousands of savvy sportsbettors over the years here at The Rx.com.....

Thread: Which Is Better - Following Or Fading A Handicapper?

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
  1. #26  
    Triple digit silver kook Dawoofdaddy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Macau
    Posts
    13,697
    Insiders,

    Do you apply your thoughts about streaks in reference to individual cappers?

    If a rx proven winning capper is on a winning streak, would you press bets higher if you agreed or was neutral about the picks?

    Similarly, if a person was losing daily, would you press while fading?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #27  
    RX Wizard Insiders's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Phoenix
    Posts
    7,267
    dawoofdaddy

    I myself Dont apply this to any one person or capper. I myself Only look at the streak as it will continue, no matter who is pitching, or who is on the other side.
    This system gets lots of Plus money when a team is on the road and it also gets lots of chalks that i Cant have at home as they will certainly be inflated. I now stop playing if the chalk is too high for the risk. But way back when i didnt stop playing as i would lay the -200 and think nothing of it. But after i lost a few of those i stopped that, right there.

    About the press, after you win the 4th game naturally it will be for a standard unit of 1, and so will the 5th one. Now here on the 6th game i press to a "double" unit play. If the 5th game wins, i press .5 from there until the streak breaks.

    Caught a Streak agsinst KC once that i got to the limit and got several collections before it broke. Dureing that streak sometimes i had to lay -200 which is a NO NO to begin with. After the First limit collection i was still at risk until the second game of the limit bet. Cant remember how many 5k collections i got there but it was several before the rope broke.
    Biggest week i have ever had in the baseball, by far !!

    You watch this over the course of time and it will "probably" be a winner!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #28  
    RX Local oldmanTED's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    SF Bay Area
    Posts
    42,492
    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    Would it be correct to say that there are more 40% cappers than 60% cappers...............I would.
    Fish:

    I believe that would be a correct assumption. Look at it this way. Imagine you are the bookmaker and always taking the action of a known 40% player and thus collecting approximately 60% of the time. Fading is essentially the same without the vig as you, the fader, are still paying the juice which a bookmaker normally receives. Compare that to trying to maintain your own plus percentage doing your own handicapping.

    My sense is the reason most of us may not do this is due to the challenge, ego, pride to be successful on our own. Notice how the successful handicappers will earn the respect of many while the one that struggles will receive little or no attention, yet could be as valuable to the bankroll as the winner. If earning money is the main goal, then why not embrace the poster who can barely achieve 40% and shares his losing plays openly with the forums as well. The essence of this is not about the poster, but perhaps another alternative to earn.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #29  
    RX Wizard mj 23's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    PA.
    Posts
    5,103
    Quote Originally Posted by oldmanTED
    Fish:

    I believe that would be a correct assumption. Look at it this way. Imagine you are the bookmaker and always taking the action of a known 40% player and thus collecting approximately 60% of the time. Fading is essentially the same without the vig as you, the fader, are still paying the juice which a bookmaker normally receives. Compare that to trying to maintain your own plus percentage doing your own handicapping.

    My sense is the reason most of us may not do this is due to the challenge, ego, pride to be successful on our own. Notice how the successful handicappers will earn the respect of many while the one that struggles will receive little or no attention, yet could be as valuable to the bankroll as the winner. If earning money is the main goal, then why not embrace the poster who can barely achieve 40% and shares his losing plays openly with the forums as well. The essence of this is not about the poster, but perhaps another alternative to earn.
    OMT it is amazing that alot of peope cant figure this out and for me i follow more 40% than the 60% because more than not you will get more plays out of the 40%er. Speaking of plays how do you feel about THURS and FRI??l
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #30  
    RX Senior RobFunk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Internet
    Posts
    47,442
    Completely worthless to fade a guy that posts. Cappers doing bad are too unpredictable. They could change their methods at any time.

    Only good fades are touts, becuase they don't care and they are'nt doing anything different. I still only play a tout fade if it's backed up by a decent/good capper on a hot streak that's on the other side.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #31  
    RX Local oldmanTED's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    SF Bay Area
    Posts
    42,492
    Quote Originally Posted by mj 23
    OMT it is amazing that alot of peope cant figure this out and for me i follow more 40% than the 60% because more than not you will get more plays out of the 40%er. Speaking of plays how do you feel about THURS and FRI??l
    Tough, tough and tough. I may have a play or two, not certain yet as lines still moving.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #32  
    RX Local oldmanTED's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    SF Bay Area
    Posts
    42,492
    Quote Originally Posted by RobFunk
    Completely worthless to fade a guy that posts. Cappers doing bad are too unpredictable. They could change their methods at any time.

    Only good fades are touts, becuase they don't care and they are'nt doing anything different. I still only play a tout fade if it's backed up by a decent/good capper on a hot streak that's on the other side.
    Rob:

    I have to disagree. There are certain very well known posters that quietly post every day and get little attention nor seek it and yet lose on a consistent basis and even show their record and losses daily. They are very steady in what you can expect from them. They do no harm but one can earn from being on the opposite side of these posters.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #33  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    unknown
    Posts
    5,523
    Those same certain posters could just as likely go on a blind winning streak, getting closer to 50% just at the time you decide to fade. Like they say, even the blind hog finds the acorn occaisionally. How much would this posters opinion be counted towards a wager decision, and what percentage would be used from your own handicapping? What if your handicapping agreed with the poster you fade? Most posters stagger around 10% points of each other, and randomly work above and below the mean of 48%. No capper is as good as his last hot streak, or bad as his last losing streak. I believe following or fading are just not long term successful methods. The 3 consecutive game angle has a lot more upside, especially in football as there is normally a large adjustment after 3 straight. I would look for advantages in the number vs current form before I started considering fading/following.

    Best Wishes...OF
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #34  
    Triple digit silver kook Dawoofdaddy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Macau
    Posts
    13,697
    The main problem with fading losing posters is that most of us after losing too often will stop or reduce posting games.

    :suomi:
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #35  
    RX Local oldmanTED's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    SF Bay Area
    Posts
    42,492
    Quote Originally Posted by OMNIVOROUS FROG
    Those same certain posters could just as likely go on a blind winning streak, getting closer to 50% just at the time you decide to fade. Like they say, even the blind hog finds the acorn occaisionally. How much would this posters opinion be counted towards a wager decision, and what percentage would be used from your own handicapping? What if your handicapping agreed with the poster you fade? Most posters stagger around 10% points of each other, and randomly work above and below the mean of 48%. No capper is as good as his last hot streak, or bad as his last losing streak. I believe following or fading are just not long term successful methods. The 3 consecutive game angle has a lot more upside, especially in football as there is normally a large adjustment after 3 straight. I would look for advantages in the number vs current form before I started considering fading/following.

    Best Wishes...OF
    Frog:

    First let me say it's great to see you back. You bring an enormous amount of knowledge to the forums and your words to Illini were both thoughtful and wise.

    Now, to the subject at hand. We must keep in mind that there is a large portion of our membership that do not or cannot handicap there own games successfully in certain, if not all, sports and would rather follow someone. You know how difficult it is to be successful in this business as you are a professional and do this for a living which very few others can acclaim. It is to the followers that must make a decision whom to follow that are in a quandry. I have scanned the forums over the few years I have been a member and there are many more posters that hover around 40% then 60% to be sure. A follower could start each season fading one of these posters and do quite well. The follower needs to have no opinion on sports, but just play the opposite side. Other then the vig, is that not where the successful bookmaker makes his money?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #36  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    unknown
    Posts
    5,523
    The successful book makes his money on the vig. Not on winners vs. losers. The ones that rely on that are in for some rude awakenings. Sometimes players win. I have a local aquaintance, a local book for 20+ years. He finally tapped out this year during NFL. Right after Thanksgiving. In fact, he became a deadbeat book. If you want to see what happens to a fading book look no furthur than the Dunes saga. It all gets real hazy when you start jumping sports, some may excel at football, and stink at hoops. Then they might just be bad in spots. By the time you figure all of that out you are still at the mercy of their choice. I prefer having control of my own destiny, and deciding where to bet with my judgements applied. At best you could take another posters play, break it down and see where they are in regards to your thinking. To me the most important angle is not what another poster likes but why. Or if everyone likes the same side. Some people like you and sb have nice writeups to explain why. Sometimes additional info can be gleaned here. Again, I think time by a novice would be better spent learning how to cap, becoming self sufficient, and watching line movement and results, vs. studying another posters plays and results. The more time you look at other people the less benefit for improving your game. Just my 2 cents.


    Best Wishes...OF
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #37  
    RX Wizard Woody0's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Richmond, British Columbia
    Posts
    6,480
    Quote Originally Posted by winbet
    Bucsfan in Baseball is a perfect example. There is no doubting his record over a season but the chances of duplicating his plays are minimal. You cannot be on here 100% of the time so between postings you can lose not only the vig but the number itself, you may not have the right out for the bet and worse still, completely miss a play, which we all know, always wins. Add all that up and you end up with a totally different result to Bucsfan, and bear in mind he is one of the best %.
    Generally a good point that you won't get the number the capper gets but the worst example. Bucsfan posts at a single consistent time of day using the lines at one book. Line shopping enables one to get at least as good and often better numbers overall.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #38  
    NBA and Miami Heat Guru spreadbeater's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    South Florida
    Posts
    8,605
    FROG-

    I thought you were gone from the RX....good to see you back! Just wondering what made you come back? Also, you headed to the Bash in August?????????????/
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #39  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    unknown
    Posts
    5,523
    Nothing makes me do anything, just needed to reboot and refresh. When I start slippin into overall negativity posts and going after innocent members I know a break is needed. Those who know me know I vanish for a month to many months sometimes. I am undecided on the bash, but much higher probability than last year with brand new polliwog. Uncommitted.

    Best Wishes...OF
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #40  
    NBA and Miami Heat Guru spreadbeater's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    South Florida
    Posts
    8,605
    Quote Originally Posted by OMNIVOROUS FROG
    Nothing makes me do anything, just needed to reboot and refresh. When I start slippin into overall negativity posts and going after innocent members I know a break is needed. Those who know me know I vanish for a month to many months sometimes. I am undecided on the bash, but much higher probability than last year with brand new polliwog. Uncommitted.

    Best Wishes...OF
    Sounds good FROG....good to see you back.

    Just out of curiousity, what are your thoughts on these upcoming NCAA games? Any games or teams you really like?

    Hope to see you at the bash!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #41  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    unknown
    Posts
    5,523
    Not much left as far as value. Opening numbers moved nowhere, biggest 1 pt on Gonz, and that could be injury related. Been going for NIT dogs, Hofstra Monday, South Carolina yesterday and Miami today. I just about shit bricks with that incompetent or Seminole clock operator last night. But this is OMT's thread, so back to his topic out of respect.


    Best Wishes...OF
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #42  
    RX Senior RobFunk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Internet
    Posts
    47,442
    Bottom line for all you guys going OT etc.

    Will you not agree that:

    It is better to follow a winning player rather than fading a losing one. Why is that? It is because both are trying to win. The winning player has already found a way to win, the losing one is still searching for a way to win.

    The winning player keeps winning, the losing one is still searching for ways to win.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #43  
    NBA and Miami Heat Guru spreadbeater's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    South Florida
    Posts
    8,605
    Quote Originally Posted by OMNIVOROUS FROG
    Not much left as far as value. Opening numbers moved nowhere, biggest 1 pt on Gonz, and that could be injury related. Been going for NIT dogs, Hofstra Monday, South Carolina yesterday and Miami today. I just about shit bricks with that incompetent or Seminole clock operator last night. But this is OMT's thread, so back to his topic out of respect.


    Best Wishes...OF
    Had the over last night in the SC game....so I was shitting bricks as well, but for different reasons.

    Respect for OMT....wow FROG, looks like you may have turned the corner.

    We may have a new, improved FROG!


    SB
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #44  
    Official Rx music critic and beer snob FairWarning's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    The Taxpaying side of Michigan
    Posts
    24,345
    Quote Originally Posted by OMNIVOROUS FROG
    The successful book makes his money on the vig. Not on winners vs. losers. The ones that rely on that are in for some rude awakenings. Sometimes players win. I have a local aquaintance, a local book for 20+ years. He finally tapped out this year during NFL. Right after Thanksgiving. In fact, he became a deadbeat book. If you want to see what happens to a fading book look no furthur than the Dunes saga. It all gets real hazy when you start jumping sports, some may excel at football, and stink at hoops. Then they might just be bad in spots. By the time you figure all of that out you are still at the mercy of their choice. I prefer having control of my own destiny, and deciding where to bet with my judgements applied. At best you could take another posters play, break it down and see where they are in regards to your thinking. To me the most important angle is not what another poster likes but why. Or if everyone likes the same side. Some people like you and sb have nice writeups to explain why. Sometimes additional info can be gleaned here. Again, I think time by a novice would be better spent learning how to cap, becoming self sufficient, and watching line movement and results, vs. studying another posters plays and results. The more time you look at other people the less benefit for improving your game. Just my 2 cents.


    Best Wishes...OF
    A lot of good info here. I like to see also WHY someone likes a side. I do cap the games but hard to see all angles. Probably better to follow successful cappers over time than to fade the worst. You can fade the worst but you still have to pay the vig on losses. This is the book's biggest advantage.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #45  
    Official Rx music critic and beer snob FairWarning's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    The Taxpaying side of Michigan
    Posts
    24,345
    Quote Originally Posted by RobFunk
    Bottom line for all you guys going OT etc.

    Will you not agree that:

    It is better to follow a winning player rather than fading a losing one. Why is that? It is because both are trying to win. The winning player has already found a way to win, the losing one is still searching for a way to win.

    The winning player keeps winning, the losing one is still searching for ways to win.
    I totally agree. If a person like Action goes in a slump, they pull back. They know the value of the lines and money best.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #46  
    RX Senior NickPappagiorgio's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Connecticut
    Posts
    2,945
    In all honesty, there are a couple posters here that I fade, and Im sure there are some people here that fade my plays. Theres nothing wrong with that at all. Its all about winning money here. Back in Feb there was an ongoing post regarding what a certain "square" was betting for a week. I made some money going against his picks. Posters that usually post losers are just as good as posters that post mostly winners.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #47  
    RX Local wilheim's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Where Needed
    Posts
    75,155
    ....
    Reply With Quote  
     

  23. #48  
    The Great Govenor of California Railbird's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Posts
    15,245
    dont follow or fade, just gather info.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  24. #49  
    RX Senior Bluemyboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    NW
    Posts
    3,966
    not sure what would actually help you more, as I think with experience you hopefully get better and would not stay consistently bad 3-4 seasons in a row. However, I thought about this and looked at this in respects to the ESPN spread pickem during NFL season. the thread is around somewhere, but ultimately about 3/4 through the season about 5% I think were winning gamblers (hit above 52%). another 7% hit above 50%. And I think it was about 75% who it would actually be profitable to fade (i.e. below 47% winning percent) . This is taking a spread on every single NFL game for the first 3/4 of the season. It was also my understanding that in weeks where you did not make picks that you were given the underdog, which should have actually boosted peoples records based on last years "year of the dog".
    Reply With Quote  
     

  25. #50  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    413
    fading
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •