The Start Of Trying To Make A Spreadsheet On A Formula In Baseball

Search

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,188
Tokens
AS YOU KNOW I DID THIS IN NFL =IT WORKS GREAT
I DID THIS IN NBA (1ST YEAR) AND ITS 49-35 NOW = OK

I WOULD LIKE FEED BACK

WHAT THE MOST IMPORTANT STAT?

WHERE CAN I FIND THEM SO THEY CAN BE UPLOADED?

I CANT FIND WHIP STATS...COULD IT BE NAME/DIFF?





Bat stats
> ---------
>
> We are helped a lot by the enormous amount of statistical
> information freely available on every player and on every
> game. No matter what you want to know, you will find it clearly
> laid out on the Major League Baseball site.
>
> The simple question is - which team is going to win the ball
> game?
>
> Many novice, and not-so-novice, backers weigh up which side
> has got the best batting line-up, and assume that they are the
> most likely winners - but they are making a fundamental
> mistake.
>
> An exceptional guy with the bat is an asset to his side, of
> course. But in the vast majority of MLB games the most
> important men in both line-ups are the starting pitchers. As the
> name implies, he begins the game and usually pitches most of
> the 9 innings, though he is usually relieved toward the end of
> the game by a fresher pitcher.
>
> -------------
> Pitch perfect
> -------------
>
> A good pitcher can put the ball just where the batter can't hit
> it, and that means the batter can't score - and if he can't score,
> his side can't win.
>
> Therefore, the side with the best pitcher is far more likely to
> win than their big-hitting opponents.
>
> Here is our assessment of how important the various baseball
> skills are in deciding which team wins the game:
>
> Starting Pitcher - 60 percent
> Batting Strength - 15 percent
> Bullpen (the relief Pitchers) 15 percent
> Current Form - 10 percent.
>
> So what we need to know in order to identify a betting
> opportunity is which team is going to have the best starting
> pitcher. Even if you have never seen an MLB game in your life,
> you will be able to work this out quickly and simply, thanks to
> those wonderful stats available on the MLB site.
>
> ------------------
> The margin for ERA
> ------------------
>
> The statistic that most people head for is the pitcher's ERA,
> which stands for Earned Run Average. This tells you the
> average number of runs that batters earn against a pitcher for
> every 9 innings he pitches.
>
> It's a good statistic, and will show you straight away those
> pitchers who are most economical and give up fewest runs. For
> instance, a top pitcher might have an ERA of 2.22, giving up
> just about 2 and a quarter runs every 9 innings.
>
> A lesser pitcher might have an ERA of 5.20, conceding almost 3
> runs more in every 9 innings. In this game, that's a huge
> difference.
>
> But there is a better pitching statistic, one that will give us an
> even clearer picture of a pitcher's ability. It's called WHIP -
> 'Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched.'
>
> ------------------
> WHIPs from the top
> ------------------
>
> WHIP tells you how many runners on bases a pitcher allows per
> innings pitched, which is a much more comprehensive stat.
> Anything under or around 1.4 is respectable, but anything over
> that figure and the pitcher's team are going to struggle. WHIP
> takes more account of the opposition than ERA, and therefore
> gives you a more reliable yardstick.
>
> Another good thing about being WHIP oriented is that this
> statistic is rather under-used by bettors in comparison to the
> ERA, so you won't always find yourself one of the crowd,
> rushing to get on a team whose pitcher has a good-looking ERA
> before the bookies cut their prices.
>
> When it comes to batting, we can assume nearly all teams
> have similar batting strengths - you don't play for a Major
> League team if you don't bat well. The weaker teams that
> appear to have poor batting line ups are often facing better
> pitching than their own club has to offer, so a 10-3 defeat to a
> strong starting pitcher could be a 6-4 victory over a weaker
> starter. Think Pitcher!
>
> -------
> No Bull
> -------
>
> You will see the term Bullpen often used, this is the name given
> to the group of pitchers available to relieve the starter when his
> pitching begins to weaken. 'Closer' is another word you will see
> a lot of. The 'closer' is simply the pitcher who specialises in
> relieving the starter or his relief and closing out the game.
>
> Of course, a good Bullpen and good Closers are a big help on
> occasions, but the Bullpen and the Closer are of lesser
> importance than the starter. It's no good having the Closer in
> baseball if your starter lands you in trouble, giving up half a
> dozen runs game after game.
>
> So how do you know who is going to 'start?'
>
> The teams must declare their starters well before the game,
> and when you go onto the bookmakers' Internet sites, the
> starting pitcher is always shown in brackets next to the name
> of his team. If you are betting on the phone, the bookmaker's
> operator will be able to tell you who the two team's starters
> are.
>
> In this sport, teams often play each other 3 times in quick
> succession over a period of a few days. Never take any notice
> of the previous day's result. Just because a team won 11-0 in
> the first game, it doesn't follow that they are going to find it a
> cakewalk in the second. It's all down to those starting pitchers
> again, both sides will use different starters in each of the 3
> games - so judge each game on the merits of the individual
> starters each day.
>
> --------------------------------
> Home in on Home Run profits
> ---------------------------------
>
> Baseball is a very competitive sport, even the 'worst' teams are
> useful. That's why you will never see a side huge odds-on, say
> 1/20, as you do in other sports. In fact, if you look at the
> WHIPS carefully, you will very often be backing the starter with
> the best stats at odds against.
>
> A good idea is to concentrate your betting around some of the
> less glamorous sides. Every one knows that the New York
> Yankees are a great team - including the bookies - and you
> aren't going to get the tastiest of odds for them.
>
> So don't worry if the side you favour are 'unfashionable,' just
> keep focused on those starting pitchers and their WHIPS, and
> the profits will follow.

WHERE CAN YOU GET STATS ON "WHIPS"?

THIS WILL TAKE MORE THAN ME TO PULL OFF

ANYONE THAT WANTS TO HELP CAN!!!

THIS CAN ONLY HELP US ALL

ACE-ACE
 

New member
Joined
Oct 10, 2004
Messages
1,627
Tokens
you can find whip, just about anywhere. i was looking at espn earlier tonight for a fantasy draft, they had that stat all over.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 18, 2005
Messages
426
Tokens
i would love to help you out if i can ace ace. whip ratio is the major thing i look at when handicapping games. You can find this stat on statfox. other important stats to look at would be strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), home runs per inning pitched, and innings per start. instead of using era it is best to use expected era as it takes some of the noise (support or defense from bullpen) away from the stat. to calculate xera you do the following:
(.575 * Hits allowed per 9 innings) + (.94 * Home runs allowed per 9 innings) + (.28 * walks allowed per 9 innings) - (.01 * strikeouts per 9 innings) + 2.68
 

30 point quarters
Joined
Feb 28, 2006
Messages
1,240
Tokens
great idea ace.. im sure if we all work together we could achieve results similar to your nba system although there would be a lot more plays for MLB
 

Banned
Joined
Jan 28, 2006
Messages
3,355
Tokens
Look at ACE trying to take over the world, he will leave no sport untouched. Gotta love ACE.
 

Waz

New member
Joined
Jan 22, 2006
Messages
550
Tokens
AceAce-
You've got quite a challenge on your hands with about a week left before baseball season begins. There are many stats out there that affect the game of baseball, and the more than you incorporate into your formula the better obviously. I've been developing my model for nearly 8 years, and am still making tweaks to it right now. I call it the "Black Box", as I throw a multitude of data in this box, and it just spits out winners!

Good luck in all of your efforts!
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,188
Tokens
Waz said:
AceAce-
You've got quite a challenge on your hands with about a week left before baseball season begins. There are many stats out there that affect the game of baseball, and the more than you incorporate into your formula the better obviously. I've been developing my model for nearly 8 years, and am still making tweaks to it right now. I call it the "Black Box", as I throw a multitude of data in this box, and it just spits out winners!

Good luck in all of your efforts!

AS IN THE NFL "MYLINE"....IT TAKES 4 WEEK OF STATS TO START SO WE GOT A LOT OF TIME.....FOR NOW I JUST WANT FEED BACK....I HAVE 2-3 PERSONS THAT DO SPREADSHEET(THAT NOT MY CUP OF TEA!!!)...BUT I WILL HAVE TO COME UP WITH THE CALCULATING FOR THE FORMULA

THANKS FOR THE FEED BACK IT HELPS :thumbsup2:

ACE-ACE
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,188
Tokens
Waz said:
AceAce-
You've got quite a challenge on your hands with about a week left before baseball season begins. There are many stats out there that affect the game of baseball, and the more than you incorporate into your formula the better obviously. I've been developing my model for nearly 8 years, and am still making tweaks to it right now. I call it the "Black Box", as I throw a multitude of data in this box, and it just spits out winners!

Good luck in all of your efforts!

ALSO HOW DOES YOUR BLACK BOX WORK...BASE ON A SPREADSHEET?
 

drB

New member
Joined
Jun 18, 2005
Messages
48
Tokens
Good Luck Ace!

I watched your excellent handicapping in football and
want to wish you the best in baseball.

drB

:thumbsup2:
 

2006 People Magazine's Sexiest Handicapper Alive
Joined
Oct 29, 2005
Messages
1,201
Tokens
ace, usatoday.com has excellent stats on their "game matchups" page...well, actually it's the same format covers.com uses. either site works.

be sure to combine a starting pitchers EXPECTED era over his PROBABLE # of innings pitched with the EXPECTED era of the bullpen over their PROBABLE # of innings pitch WITH the team's average unearned runs allowed per 9 innings. this is the best formula for handicapping a team's "defensive" worth (starting pitcher, bullpen + unearned runs)

ex: if a starting pitcher has an era of 4.50 but has only averaged pitching 6 innings over his last 5 starts or so...

then it's reasonable to assume, he'll pitch 6 innings in the upcoming game and give up 3 runs (6 innings pitched is 2/3 of 9 innings....and 3 runs is 2/3 of his 4.50 era)

so now figure out what the bullpen "should" give up for those 3 innings they'll probably have to pitch.

if the bullpen has a recent road era of 3.00 then they can be given a value of 1 run (3.00 era over 9 innings...divided by 3 since the starting pitcher will probably pitch the first 6 innings, the bullpen pitching the last 3 innings)

so now you have 3 runs for the starting pitcher + 1 run for the bullpen...

finally, add up the team's average unearned runs per game...let's say it's .43 per game. add that to the estimated earned runs and you now have a team's defense value of:

4.43 runs allowed for the upcoming game...

ha ha, now you're halfway home. then assess the team's offense and formulate the two together...adding/subtracting subjective values accordingly, etc. etc.

oh, but be careful to with 65/15/15/10 formula...

10% current form should be ommitted....because you should ONLY use current stats. never year to date. so by ONLY using current form to begin with, you don't have to add it a second time (such as your "10%" formula) it's already factored in for you.

use a pitcher's last 3-5 games when assessing his upcoming value. use a team's last 10 or so home or away games in assssing offesnsive stats, etc. always use current form.

team's will get hot post all-star break (or go cold) remember the indians late last year? all of us who caught on to them early made a killing with those guys...teams like that are out there every year.

anyway, so you won't need to assess 10% of any formula for "current value" it's already factored in.

but i'd also be careful with the 75% pitching 15% batting. most people assume this, but the two are much closer in importance than, say 75/15.

good luck whatever method you use! have a good season!
 

New member
Joined
Jan 27, 2005
Messages
138
Tokens
first time post: Here is a web-site that offers analysis of baseball stats. If you surf the site your questions may be answered. It all depends on what you decide is significant. It explains how they come up factors for total pitching productivity, total offensive productivity, defense, and probability.
It may or may not fit how you want to go about your system but it will give you info to develop your system. I do not have enough time to learn excel and develop this for this season. It should take you less time to figure out a winning system. GL

http://highboskage.com/baseball-analysis.shtml
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 31, 2004
Messages
44,299
Tokens
I think the biggest adjustment you are going to have to make betting baseball vs football,basketball etc......... Is you are going to be betting the moneylines and not point spreads. There is a huge difference.

Your system seems to be focusing on which team is better, team A or team B. Thats only half the battle.

Its not very hard to figure out which team is better in baseball. The hard part is figuring out which team has value vs the moneyline.
 

2006 People Magazine's Sexiest Handicapper Alive
Joined
Oct 29, 2005
Messages
1,201
Tokens
CHOPTALK said:
Its not very hard to figure out which team is better in baseball. The hard part is figuring out which team has value vs the moneyline.

true, true...

but you still have to have a RELEVANT formula to assess each team's CURRENT batting and pitching values for the upcoming game.

so many people use IRRELEVANT stats, such as year-to-date stats, instead of, say, L5 for a pitcher, L10 home/away for a team's batting stats...

or, they use a team's overall batting stats, instead of how that team fares against either a L or R handed starting pitcher (depending on who their opposing pitcher is, whether a lefty or righty) etc. etc.

you still need to use a RELEVANT formula to assess the two teams.

then, as you said, comes the evaluation of moneyline value.
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,188
Tokens
CHOPTALK said:
I think the biggest adjustment you are going to have to make betting baseball vs football,basketball etc......... Is you are going to be betting the moneylines and not point spreads. There is a huge difference.

Your system seems to be focusing on which team is better, team A or team B. Thats only half the battle.

Its not very hard to figure out which team is better in baseball. The hard part is figuring out which team has value vs the moneyline.

I KNEW YOU WOULD HAVE A GOOD ONE:thumbsup2:

THANKS.....TAKING A LOT OF NOTES!!!

ACE-ACE
 

Waz

New member
Joined
Jan 22, 2006
Messages
550
Tokens
ACE-ACE said:
ALSO HOW DOES YOUR BLACK BOX WORK...BASE ON A SPREADSHEET?

To be completely honest, it would take me writing a short book to explain the whole thing. I will be posting my plays starting Opening Day, with some tidbits of how I come up with certain plays. A lot of what Christian wrote is built into my Black Box, but I also like to take into account other factors such as how pitchers pitch against certain teams, in ballparks, etc. Stay tuned in this forum and learn from everyone. Baseball is definitely the most number-intensive sport out there.
 

2006 People Magazine's Sexiest Handicapper Alive
Joined
Oct 29, 2005
Messages
1,201
Tokens
Waz said:
A lot of what Christian wrote is built into my Black Box, but I also like to take into account other factors such as how pitchers pitch against certain teams, in ballparks, etc..

waz, don't think for a second that what i wrote is all that's required for handicapping a game...

i was just putting out there a quick overview of the pitching side of the game.

you're right, there are subjective factors that must be considered, like you mentioned ballpark dynamics, pitcher's past performance vs. upcoming lineups, even umpire tendencies.

ha ha, it took me about 15 paragraphs just to summarize the pitching formula i use...

it would have taken me another 15 paragraphs to summarize the rest of my formulas!!! :lolBIG:
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2005
Messages
5,021
Tokens
Waz said:
AceAce-
You've got quite a challenge on your hands with about a week left before baseball season begins. There are many stats out there that affect the game of baseball, and the more than you incorporate into your formula the better obviously. I've been developing my model for nearly 8 years, and am still making tweaks to it right now. I call it the "Black Box", as I throw a multitude of data in this box, and it just spits out winners!

Good luck in all of your efforts!


Waz.. Don't remember seeing your name going through the archives. How do you do year to year?
 

Waz

New member
Joined
Jan 22, 2006
Messages
550
Tokens
I've been very successful over the years betting the bases. I've never been much of a poster on these forums (obviously only 34 posts), but this year I plan on contributing big time. Every year I improve my model, and this year I finally have the bankroll to make some serious cash!

Christian - I understand you were just covering one aspect of the whole process. I just wanted to point out that there is a ton of data involved in capping these games. Let's put a hurtin' on the books this year!
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2005
Messages
5,021
Tokens
Waz said:
I've been very successful over the years betting the bases. I've never been much of a poster on these forums (obviously only 34 posts), but this year I plan on contributing big time. Every year I improve my model, and this year I finally have the bankroll to make some serious cash!

Christian - I understand you were just covering one aspect of the whole process. I just wanted to point out that there is a ton of data involved in capping these games. Let's put a hurtin' on the books this year!


How many units did you finish up last season?
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,476
Messages
13,451,871
Members
99,417
Latest member
go789click
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com