~ Reduce Juice Book & Why Everyone Needs One ~

I look at so many threads started about what book should I use and who is the best and why? I know everyone always disagrees and has their opinion as to why they use who they use, but I would like to have a little discussion and education especially for the uninformed.

Reduced Juice is a must

First off, let us state how important reduced betting is:
-Any person that understands the basics of money management uses reduced juice betting.
-Any player that makes a living at sports betting uses reduced juice betting.
-Any player planning on making a living at sports betting should use reduced juice betting.

It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice, and simply breakeven. Reduced juice betting drastically effects your win %, bring this number down, -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.

It is tough enough to win so why make it harder and use a -110 book? It just makes no sense to me. How many bettors strive for the 52-55% margin just to come out on top? Well imagine if you hit that same percentage and paid (-102)? How much more profit would you have at the end of the season? I always practice money management as it is crucial to being successful. From units per bet to getting the right line/price. Several times have I made numerous bets and received (+100) or better and even though some wagers won and others lost, I was able to maximize my profits and minimize my losses, which I believe to be key. There are several reduced juice books available that you do not need to stick with your (-110) books. In fact it would be great if those regular juice books would dissappear, but some may have loyal customers. As for myself, I am in this to make a profit and the more of an edge I have to maximize my profits the better. For any who are looking for some reduced juice books, I would highly recommend:

1) Pinnacle
2) Matchbook
3) Mansion

Pinnacle is on most peoples list, but the odd thing is that many people who use Pinnacle will have a book like CRIS or Olympic on their list. I have been educated myself on Mansion & Matchbook's exchanges and I couldn't be more pleased than what I have experienced. Both offer great lines and (-104) or better prices, but the exchange has allowed me to get even better prices as the highest I have paid to date is (-103). Pinnacle does not always have the line that I want, but the price is always there. By adding 2 other reduced juice books into my "arsenal" it has helped drastically as getting the best line with the best price is always a struggle, but it has become a little easier since not relying solely on Pinnacle. Some may take some insight in this thread and others may stick with their books that they have always been with. OK. No problem. I would just like to throw this out there for those who are looking for a different book and are wanting to be educated as to why it is important. Once again, I get no referral money or anything like that, so this benefits me none whatsoever. When I first started sportsbetting I used the (-110) books and very often those would be the best prices, ie BoDog, CRIS to name a few. Not trying to insult those who use those currently, but there are better out there. Hopefully this will help those in their search.



Many people believe professional sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. This is understandable with all the books and movies featuring Vegas high rollers, but it’s just not true. The fact is the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively small.
Let's take a minute to examine the numbers. For clarity sake, we'll focus on bets where the player risks $11 to make $10. (point spread and over/under bets) Against this type of bet, anyone can expect to win 50% of their bets. All you'll need to do is flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9% of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked), consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.

Based on 11 to 10 odds, you would need to win 52.38% of your bets just to break even and cover the "juice" you pay to the sportsbook. Let's take a look to see how the 52.38% is derived:Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57-58%, and often as low as 55-56%. Most people find that hard to believe, and they get even more skeptical when told that for successful professional sports bettors, a winning percentage of 60% or more is actually too high. This is because a professional sports bettor will bet on any game that they feel they have and edge. The logic being at the end of the day it’s all about how much money you make. An example will help clarify this important point.
If a bettor has 5 bets on a given day, risking $110 to win $100 on each bet, and wins 3 or them, that's a great winning percentage of 60%, and net profit of $80. (The bettor wins $300 and loses $220) If another bettor has 14 bets on that same day, risking $110 to win $100 on each one, and wins eight of them, resulting in lower winning percentage of 57%, but almost twice as much profit, $140. The second bettor wasn't necessarily less skilled at picking winners, they may have just choose to apply all their advantages, (including bets that had an expected winning percent less than 60%). If the goal is make money, there is no doubt which sports bettor is achieving their objective.


Ok, the latter half of this thread is compliments of SportsInsights.com. But I believe this is very informative and having a reduced juice book is just as important as getting that extra 1/2 point. I have had several 1-1 days, but so many times I have had (+100) or better odds that I actually end up a little on the plus side, whereas if I was paying (-110), I would just eat the juice.

I would just like to have a discussion amongst everyone here on this topic. This is my 1st year capping sports and so far it has been profitable. I play 3 sports: football, basketball & baseball. I have learned a lot and I do know that there is plenty to come as well. Hopefully this thread will help others in their decisions if they are contemplating a new book to use. I mean why would you pay (-110) when you could get the same exact line @ (-102)?

Hopefully we can keep this thread intelligent and learn form each others experience's and insight!

:toast:

Very informative post, but make sure these low juice stores pay. I know
Pinnacle is gold, but some others may not. You make alot of good points
and I wish you the best of luck, but remember..you must get paid.

Oh definately. You must check the credibility of the book you choose.

Mansion & Matchbook have outstanding customer service. I have actually had to wait longer from Pinnacle by email than the other 2. As far as payouts are concerned, I use Neteller exclusively and have never had a problem. I really believe exchanges are our future. Not sure if anyone knows this but,

Mansion will be sponsoring Manchester United which means a lot more customers which will lead to more liquidity on their exchange, which means the tightest lines anywhere.

The future looks very bright.

austin, though you may be new here i think you will add much to the forum, the desire to help others in all aspects of profitable gambling is something few possess. I think you will find there to be a core group of guys that always try and help others with suggestions on how to be more profitable at the end of the day, remember, sometimes it's not how much you win but how little you lose.

Didn't read it all, just bold, but yes Pinny, Mansion, and any exchange you can use like Matchbook, Betbug,Betfair is good.

Bonuses at others are useful, and traditional books with stuff like props, action points, good dog lines... whatever fits the way you bet.

Many ways to do it, but reduced vig is a strong foundation.

Thanks guys...all good responses. Hopefully I can contribute here and earn a few buck$ as well. Lets keep the discussion rollin.

austintx05 said:

Thanks guys...all good responses. Hopefully I can contribute here and earn a few buck$ as well. Lets keep the discussion rollin.

Click to expand...

Austin: Nothing ground-breaking new here, I now read the first 75% of your essay, no need to read the rest.

52.38 % breaks even at -110, simple algebra... you can't win 60 % against WA lines, reduced juice lowers the B/ E number.

You re-hash stuff that's well known and been presented here many times over.

Give us something better than it's more cost-effecient to buy the equivelant of a gallon of gas at $2.29 instead of $2.49.

I didn't learn a thing from your post.

Doug said:

Austin: Nothing ground-breaking new here, I now read the first 75% of your essay, no need to read the rest.

52.38 % breaks even at -110, simple algebra... you can't win 60 % against WA lines, reduced juice lowers the B/ E number.

You re-hash stuff that's well known and been presented here many times over.

Give us something better than it's more cost-effecient to buy the equivelant of a gallon of gas at $2.29 instead of $2.49.

I didn't learn a thing from your post.

Click to expand...

Give the guy a break Doug. There are thousands of newbies at this site. Im sure there are many people who dont understand this very basic concept. If you dont believe me, check out some of the threads from the well known cappers at this site and read some of the questions that some of the newbies ask the thread starters.

Doug, I never claimed this to be ground breaking. Some bettors really never stop to think about how important having a reduced juice book can be. I never did until someone showed me with numbers how effective it can be. I am glad to know that you are aware of this. I think thats great. This is my 1st day here, so forgive me for not re-reading every thread here. I notice here and so many forums do not advertise for reduced juice shops. I wanted to write the thread up and try to contribute here. Not trying to be redundant. Unfortunately you will not get anything out of this thread because you are aware of what I am talking about, but hopefully there are some here that will benefit.

What is better? Reduced juice on a bad number or -110 on a good number. Sometimes the best number is the opening one. Which is why, IMO, CRIS and OLY are important books to have accounts with.

austintx05 said:

Doug, I never claimed this to be ground breaking. Some bettors really never stop to think about how important having a reduced juice book can be. I never did until someone showed me with numbers how effective it can be. I am glad to know that you are aware of this. I think thats great. This is my 1st day here, so forgive me for not re-reading every thread here. I notice here and so many forums do not advertise for reduced juice shops. I wanted to write the thread up and try to contribute here. Not trying to be redundant. Unfortunately you will not get anything out of this thread because you are aware of what I am talking about, but hopefully there are some here that will benefit.

Click to expand...

No problem, Austin, but it really is a staple on any forum related to sports betting, and certainly has been covered before. Y'all best budget some time to read the million threads here.

I'll disagree about forums not taking ads from reduced vig shops, I don't get that slant... are forums full juice books ? RX has Pinny and HW right off the top off my head, probably some others as well.

No forum/ watchdog place like Rx, SBR, TOW, EOG, etc would refuse advertising from a book because said offers lower vig, that's crazy !

Isn't some of this from the tout J.R. Miller's site?

http://professionalgambler.com/Winperct.html

I never understood the part how a winning percentage of 60% or more is actually too high.

Austin, good stuff...good to see you posting over here...

Original post here is partial cut and paste from JR Miller's site

WINNING PERCENTAGES
Once and for all, - when laying 11 to win 10, what percentage of bets do professional gamblers win?

There's always an awkward pause when a non-gambler or a beginner asks me, "What percentage of bets do professional bettors win?"

It's a less-than-simple question to answer because it can't be answered simply. That, of course, sounds like a cop-out, but the answer to that question really does demand an explanation.

Many people believe professional-level sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. It's understandable t people think that, but it's just not true. The fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively very small.
We'll ignore money line bets here for the sake of clarity, and address only those bets wherein the player must risk as much as 11 to win 10; - pointspreads and over/under bets. Against this type of bet, anyone at all can expect to win 50 percent. After all, the only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers' profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9 percent of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked). Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.

Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it's often as low as 54 or 55 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional-level sports bettor, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high.

That last paragraph sounds crazy at first, but as crazy as it may seem there is a simple explanation: If a bettor has five bets on a given day, risking $110 to win $100 on each bet, and wins three of them, that's a great winning ratio of 60% and a net profit for the day of 80 dollars. (The bettor wins $300 and loses 220 dollars.) If another bettor has fourteen bets on that same day, risking $110 to win $100 on each one, and wins eight of them, that's a much poorer winning percentage of only 57%, - but almost twice as much profit for the day of 140 dollars. (The bettor wins $800 and loses 660 dollars.)


The second bettor was not necessarily less skilled at picking winners than the first bettor; the second bettor may simply have chosen to apply all his advantages - including those which had less than a 60% chance of winning in the first place. If the ultimate goal is to make money, it is obvious which of those two bettors was more successful. The real goal is, of course, to make money. The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets, but the relative amount of profit he made over any given period of time.


Although there are, indeed, propositions that offer more than a 60% expectation of winning, such propositions are relatively few and far between, and are only a very small part of the overall picture. With the break-even point at about 53%, genuine professional bettors know there is no tenable excuse to pass up propositions offering expectations of higher than, say, 55 percent. A small advantage applied over and over is awesomely effective. Mathematicians will confirm that a profit is more assured from a group of 200 bets with a 55% expectation-per-bet than from a group of 50 bets with a 60% expectation-per-bet. In other words, the more bets placed, the more predictable the outcome. (See our article, Binomial Distribution.)

"The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets, but the relative amount of profit he made over any given period of time."

That, too, is one of the facts of life of which successful bettors must be familiar. It's a basic principle of math: The more bets you are able to place, the more likely it is that your winning percentage will be close to your expectations. A pro bettor must be more concerned with profit than with establishing a great winning percentage, and those two conditions are not always compatible. A real pro applies all his advantages as often as possible, not only the best of his advantages when they occasionally arise.

To illustrate the point, consider casino craps. The house has less than a 51% winning expectation against a passline bet at craps, yet casinos advertise their craps games on signs 100 feet tall. Casino executives know that if they can get enough players to make enough bets they will end the day with approximately the percentage of profit expected. They also know that the fewer bets placed, the less predictable the percentage of winning bets. Can you imagine a casino wanting to limit the number of times you throw the dice?

The accompanying illustration (below) shows the results of different winning percentages over different numbers of bets when risking 11 to win ten. Standard vigorish charges of 4.55 percent are figured into the numbers. (The bookies' net commission is 4.55 percent of all monies risked when bettos risk 11 to win ten. See our article, A Crash Course in Vigorish.) Notice in the illustration that winning 55% of 250 bets is more profitable than winning 65% of only 50 bets, - and remember that a profit is more assured - that is, more dependable - because of the higher number of trials.

Doug said:

Austin: Nothing ground-breaking new here, I now read the first 75% of your essay, no need to read the rest.

52.38 % breaks even at -110, simple algebra... you can't win 60 % against WA lines, reduced juice lowers the B/ E number.

You re-hash stuff that's well known and been presented here many times over.

Give us something better than it's more cost-effecient to buy the equivelant of a gallon of gas at $2.29 instead of $2.49.

I didn't learn a thing from your post.

Click to expand...

Come on Doug, not everyone here is born a genius. I was terrified to post when I first found this place. This stuff is fairly well known by veteran posters. I have been a staunch proponent of reduced juice books. The ONLY reason I have accts at Cris and Olympic is to play the opening #s in college football. Almost never anything after that. Long live Pinny, Cascade, Hollywood and Mansion! LT:money:

wil, are you saying this is someone else's work & the author has not been given credit?

are you saying this is someone else's work & the author has not been given credit?<!-- / message -->

Click to expand...

Yes.. Tout J.R. Miller's website TheProfessionalGambler.com is where the article appears.



wil..

While I was looking at Miller 's site I noticed an ad for a book I have always used. "Education of a Sports Bettor" by Bob McCune..Unfortunately Bob is no longer with us but his book remains one of the defining works on sports handicapping ever written. You can find it online at The Gamblersbookshop.com in Las vegas... Highly recommended...


SECTION I

A COMPENDIUM OF BOB’S LORE

The Evolution of a Sports Bettor 1
The Professional Sports Bettor 3
An Indictment 6
This and That 8
It’s a Three-Way Street 10
About the Market 11
Indecision 14
The Pavlov Syndrome 15
What About Teasers 17
Prepare Before You Execute 19
Paper – Rock - Scissors 20
I Resolve 22
Points In Line 23

SECTION II

A CLOSER LOOK

The Other Guy 1
The Gambler’s Mythology 2
Some Monkey Business 5
Experiment In Probability 6
Winning and Losing ATS 8
The Spread Myth 10
Can’t Win for Winning 12
Observations 13
Rifle vs. Shotgun 15
Interrogations & Responses 18
Happy New Year 20
The Illusion Sports 21
Sports Betting & the Stock Market 26
The Las Vegas Zoo in the 1980’s 28
Rappin’ With Reizner 29
Patience, My Friend, Patience 33
Cliches & Proverbs 34

SECTION III

HANDICAPPING HANDICAPPERS

The Handicappers 1
Many Ways to Skin a Cat 2
The Diversity of Handicapping 4
The Elusive (ILLusive?) Edge 6
For the Record 7
Evaluating the Handicappers 9
Hot or Not (?) 11
The Opinionated Handicapper 12
A Player’s Dilemma 14
Why Use a Sports Service? 15
Revelations and Advice 16
Roses Have Thorns 18
Sports Service Marketing 19
New Math 21
The Rating Game 24
Integrity and Rationalizatio 26

SECTION IV

BOOKIES & BETTING LINES

Bookie Business 1
My Bleeding Heart 3
Opinion or Fact 4
Betting the Betting Lines 6
A Line on the Line 8
My ‘Buy’ Line 11
Playing the Line 12
SECTION V
MONEY MANAGEMENT & MORE
Getting Your Money’s Worth 1
Sopping Up the Juice 3
Illustration 5-1 4
3 M’s to Profit – Part 1 6
Illustration 5-2 7
Illustration 5-3 7
3 M’s to Profit – Part 2 8
Illustration 5-4 8
Illustration 5-5 9
Illustration 5-6 9
3 M’s to Profit – Part 3 10
Illustration 5-7 11
Illustration 5-8 11
Illustration 5-9 12
Illustration 5-10 13
Illustration 5-11 13
The Loser…A Short Story 14
Part 1 – The Loser 14
Part 2 – The Winner 16

SECTION VI

FOOTBALL

The Mystique of Football 1
The Pro Game 2
Around the Corner 3
Styles in Handicapping Football 4
Season Thus Far, Etc. 6
The Big Double EE 7
The Grand Finale 9

SECTION VII

BASKETBALL

Come Play with Me 1
A Piece of Cake? 2
Factoring the NBA 5
The Deviation Factor 9

SECTION VIII

BASEBALL

April 1
Odds and Ends ‘Bout Baseball 3
Illustration 8-1 5
The Two-Headed Monster 5
‘Bout Baseball Bettin’ 7
Bantering Baseball Banker & Me 9
The Streak Myth 10
Thoughts on Angles and Theories 12
Thinkers and Likers 14
How I Make a Baseball Line 16
Questions for Answers 18

Actually, I did not take credit for all of my post. I said the latter half of my post was form an article on sportsinsights.com. This is where I got it from. If they got it from the site you are talking about then so be it. To the comment on having CRIS & Olympic. I do think that it can be beneficial to have a book like them where the lines come out earlier than others? And yes what does a low juice matter if it loses? What if the higher priced better line wins? Well these are all things you try to balance out. I have always tried to get the best line @ the best price. It can be very hard and time consuming, but when accomplished very rewarding. Just considering the 3 books that I mentioned beforehand has helped me to get a good line/price. I still would not rule out having a book such as CRIS, it just wouldn't be my main book.

austintex 05 great post!!!!

While it is true "everyone" is aware of the necessity for reduced juice many of us donot always use Pinny,etc.....Sometimes I find myself using other books..and I am the "genius".....so I think it is a great reminder for everyone...Thanks for the excellent post..!!!!