looking for some suggestions on a hedge for villanova future

blueedwards · Mar 25, 2006

here is what i have going:

<TABLE id=dgPending style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 rules=all border=1><TBODY><TR class=table_events_data_tr2 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>16876596</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">1/26/2006 8:30:39 PM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[88] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>100.00</TD><TD align=right>1200.00</TD></TR><TR class=table_events_data_tr1 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>17133548</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">2/10/2006 12:09:30 PM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[82] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>154.00</TD><TD align=right>1848.00</TD></TR><TR class=table_events_data_tr2 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>17135208</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">2/10/2006 2:08:52 PM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[82] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>10.00</TD><TD align=right>120.00</TD></TR><TR class=table_events_data_tr1 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>17142491</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">2/10/2006 7:52:29 PM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[82] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>100.00</TD><TD align=right>1200.00</TD></TR><TR class=table_events_data_tr2 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>17150053</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">2/11/2006 6:52:10 AM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[82] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>200.00</TD><TD align=right>2400.00</TD></TR><TR class=table_events_data_tr1 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>17220537</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">2/13/2006 9:54:11 PM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[88] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>200.00</TD><TD align=right>2400.00</TD></TR><TR class=table_events_data_tr2 nowrap="nowrap"><TD>17227855</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80px">2/14/2006 4:04:56 PM</TD><TD noWrap>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>

[88] VILLANOVA +1200

</TD><TD align=right>200.00</TD><TD align=right>2400.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

1) do i hedge it at all?

2) if so, how?

thanks for your input

GreenDoberman · Mar 25, 2006

I was in similar situation last year with an Arizona future. Said I'd ride it out until the final four, then they absolutely gave the game away to Illinois.
No advice either way, just something to think about.

Dubpoet · Mar 25, 2006

Let that sucker ride tommorrow! then hedge as Uconn and Lsu both could beat them, not Ucla

blueedwards · Mar 25, 2006

my inclination is not to hedge it...especially since i had $600 on boston college +2.5 last night.

Dubpoet · Mar 25, 2006

In fact Uconn is really the only team that will beat them.

blueedwards · Mar 25, 2006

GreenDoberman said:
I was in similar situation last year with an Arizona future. Said I'd ride it out until the final four, then they absolutely gave the game away to Illinois.
No advice either way, just something to think about.

wow...that had to hurt like the clap. that was the most unbelievable comeback i have ever seen. until, of course, ucla beating gonzaga on thursday

Ego74 · Mar 25, 2006

I'd lay a modest amount on Florida tomorrow ( preferrbly ML if the line goes up at all), but that's just me. I'd be too chickenshit to let that kind of payoff ride on a game that is basically a pick 'em.

It's not like Nova is laying points like Texas and memphis (oops, bad comparison)

cincy_ · Mar 25, 2006

Post up a little at WSEX, and hedge with live-betting if you get nervous.

WSEX will either make the line a pick or Nova -1.5 in their live-betting - just stay off the game at the beginning, but if it gets to be a toss-up late, hedge.

Ego74 · Mar 25, 2006

cincy_ said:
Post up a little at WSEX, and hedge with live-betting if you get nervous.

WSEX will either make the line a pick or Nova -1.5 in their live-betting - just stay off the game at the beginning, but if it gets to be a toss-up late, hedge.

Good thinking Cincy, I actually like that suggestion better than my own. Nic eway to bail yourself out if you need to. Haven't looked real close at the game, but I do like Nova unless I see something that changes my mind.

Should be pretty close though, as most of these games have been this weekend

TheFalls · Mar 25, 2006

I have that same bet.
Played FL money line earlier for half the amount played on the money line.
Nova should win-but if Fl wins-barely lose anything.
Can hedge the same amount agst UCONN next game although you will be laying more on the moneyline.

cincy_ · Mar 25, 2006

blue edwards said:
wow...that had to hurt like the clap. that was the most unbelievable comeback i have ever seen. until, of course, ucla beating gonzaga on thursday

I would have been in first place (and probably would have won) the RX NCAA contest if Gonzaga had won that game. $1,000 prize goes down the drain because the Zags choked.

PublicsMoney · Mar 25, 2006

Florida wins this game tomorrow.

TTinCO · Mar 26, 2006

Damn Blue, you're all over that baby. Makes pocket change out of my 2 bones at +942.

GO NOVA!

JayC · Mar 26, 2006

Looks like if you convert it to contracts, your price is just under $8 per contract. I would think WSEX would be about $15 bid in the morning if you want to sell some of your position. You have 115 contracts to play with.

GreenDoberman · Mar 26, 2006

jay c,
email me at work at poker@imperialpalace.com if you plan on attending the bash.
thank you,
gd

blueedwards · Mar 26, 2006

not that anyone really cares but, here is what i have decided to do:

$500 on florida +2 (sia)

if nova wins today, i will buy the "villanova will not win the championship" at pinnacle. i would guess i will have to lay around -450 or -500. i will lay enough to get back my $1,000 investment and the $550 i lose today on florida.

of course, i would gladly welcome another 1 point winner by nova today ala boston college... :suomi: