2006 ML Dogs Question

edpit · Mar 29, 2006

I was asked this question. If one were to play every underdog, everyday this year for the whole year, would it be profitable?

I honestly never thought of doing such a thing. I would have a hard time seeing me going 2-13 daily! I figure the break even point would be around 5 or 6 wins a day, depending on how big of a dog you are. (Please correct me if I am wrong)

I just wanted some insight on this.

Thanks in advance.

totalguy · Mar 29, 2006

In short, no. Over the last 4 seasons making 1 unit wagers, you would lose between 60 and 80 units a season.

edpit · Mar 29, 2006

What do you think the break-even point would be for the year?

Can the dogs win 30% of the games? Would that break you even? Or is it closer to 40% or even 50%?

Thanks for any and all input in this matter.

heart222 · Mar 29, 2006

If you toss out K.C. betting a.l. road dogs game 1 of a series was profitable. additionally if the road dog had won its last game the win % goes up.
I coudnt find the same results in the n.l. think the reason may be you can always get a big price when teams play yanks and r.sox when they are home.
if dog lost game 1 there was no statistical advantage trying to win game 2 or 3 in same series.

SSI · Mar 29, 2006

a better way to look at this, may be in the (plus juice) term, instead of dog.

by that i mean, playing some road favorites and laying the -1.5 runs on the R/L, this turns a favorite into a dog..

i dont like to do this with a home favorite but there are advantages with the road favorites..

CHOPTALK · Mar 29, 2006

Not a good system. Thats why they inflate the juice after -180 to such an extreme level. They dont do this just for the fav, they do it for the dog as well. You would have to hit an enormous % to win with just dogs. Over 40%.

To make matters worse, April and May contrary to popular belief are chalk months. The sportsbooks dont start taking huge stands on games till around june. Im not talking about betting -180s or anything like that but in the first 2 months of the season you can get some good values on some -135 to -140s that would be -180 and -190 in June and July.

edpit · Mar 29, 2006

Thanks for all the input all... Very much appreciated!!!!

Back to the rigors :modemman: of finding the perfect game to .... you know!!!

Let this forum make some real :money8:!!!!!!!

Good Luck this season!!!