This will be a year long thread. My first post of the day will include have the date and day in the title, so that you will only need to go back a few posts to see anything new for the day.
Any Rx members are welcome to post info in this thread, and i kind of use it as a Las Vegas daily blog as well. Feel free to ask any questions you might have recarding capping MLB, if i dont know the answer, i sure know someone that does.
One of the key aspects of this thread will be to collect and gather home plate umpire data on overs/unders. for me it's always been one of the easiest ways to win betting MLB without have to spend hours and hours staying on top of each and every team. every year you will find a couple of umps that over 60% of the games go over or under. these will be the one we will try to key on in our collection process.
To make this job easier, i would like to get at least 17 people that are interested in putting this information together. I have created a simple excel spreadsheet that will take less that 10 min per day from each one of these people. If successful, we will be able to determine the best possible options for o/u betting without having to lay out more that 110 to get the most bang for our bucks.
I thought that it would be a good idea to first start out with some information that would be useful with respect to how the odds makers generate the opening lines, which is posted below.
SETTING THE LINES
1. In setting game odds no mathematical models are used, they are set
strictly from his internal knowledge and databases.
The factors uses is setting the opening lines are:
Pitching 70%
Teams 20%
Home Ballpark 5%
Current streaks 5%.
So if you feel that you know specific data or info that does better than these
your one step aheadof the odds makers
2. In setting totals they develop characteristics for every ballpark, i dont know the exact break down
or percentage factors each, but below are a few that i do know.
a. Wrigley totals aren't released until the morning of the game; a key person that lives a block from
the park who goes and checks the flags, and calls in the wind conditions. This is the only park looked
at for current daily wind forecasts.
b. Washington - It's believed that they lied about the ballpark dimensions last year
and it was a great field for unders; of course, there will be some adjustment made this year.
c. California parks - The general strategy of higher totals for afternoon games and lower for night games.
d. Philadelphia - no wind factor at all.
e. St. Louis (new park) - still under study but if ever a NE wind it will make totals go up.
f. Early season totals will be lower in colder temps because the ball does not carry as well.
The one key item which is not considered when setting over/under is the umpires. They have more influence
in the outcomes of the game than the pitchers. A small strike zone, more walks, and more runs. A large
strike zone, more K, less men on base and less runs.
So this brings us to the purpose of the thread is to track the umps and come up with an additional factor that will help
us a greater edge and produce a better w/l ratio as well
i posted some info today in my cbb thread and already have a few people that have signed up to do umpire collection. If you are interested, just post in this thread and let me know. I'll assign you one of the opening games, and you will follow that umpire crew for the entire year.
everthing you are going to need will be available on the net or newspapers. you will need a copy of excel or other spreadsheet program to keep the data. It's a very simple process so feel free to ask any questions, or vol to be one of the ump crew followers.
link to ump spreadsheet
http://s35.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=2OZMTMBNYJ1GW1O8OL2HGNR9N2
1st game starts sunday, i'm taking the 1st game, and will post it as an example of how to collect the data
this is not my thread, but all of your threads, so hope we can all learn something and make some money as well.
p.s. johnnie detroit let it ride did have umpire data, but not sure if they or any other site will have it. the key will be the other factors that are in the spreadsheet to give us more potential game to bet on
tks and good luck to al
Any Rx members are welcome to post info in this thread, and i kind of use it as a Las Vegas daily blog as well. Feel free to ask any questions you might have recarding capping MLB, if i dont know the answer, i sure know someone that does.
One of the key aspects of this thread will be to collect and gather home plate umpire data on overs/unders. for me it's always been one of the easiest ways to win betting MLB without have to spend hours and hours staying on top of each and every team. every year you will find a couple of umps that over 60% of the games go over or under. these will be the one we will try to key on in our collection process.
To make this job easier, i would like to get at least 17 people that are interested in putting this information together. I have created a simple excel spreadsheet that will take less that 10 min per day from each one of these people. If successful, we will be able to determine the best possible options for o/u betting without having to lay out more that 110 to get the most bang for our bucks.
I thought that it would be a good idea to first start out with some information that would be useful with respect to how the odds makers generate the opening lines, which is posted below.
SETTING THE LINES
1. In setting game odds no mathematical models are used, they are set
strictly from his internal knowledge and databases.
The factors uses is setting the opening lines are:
Pitching 70%
Teams 20%
Home Ballpark 5%
Current streaks 5%.
So if you feel that you know specific data or info that does better than these
your one step aheadof the odds makers
2. In setting totals they develop characteristics for every ballpark, i dont know the exact break down
or percentage factors each, but below are a few that i do know.
a. Wrigley totals aren't released until the morning of the game; a key person that lives a block from
the park who goes and checks the flags, and calls in the wind conditions. This is the only park looked
at for current daily wind forecasts.
b. Washington - It's believed that they lied about the ballpark dimensions last year
and it was a great field for unders; of course, there will be some adjustment made this year.
c. California parks - The general strategy of higher totals for afternoon games and lower for night games.
d. Philadelphia - no wind factor at all.
e. St. Louis (new park) - still under study but if ever a NE wind it will make totals go up.
f. Early season totals will be lower in colder temps because the ball does not carry as well.
The one key item which is not considered when setting over/under is the umpires. They have more influence
in the outcomes of the game than the pitchers. A small strike zone, more walks, and more runs. A large
strike zone, more K, less men on base and less runs.
So this brings us to the purpose of the thread is to track the umps and come up with an additional factor that will help
us a greater edge and produce a better w/l ratio as well
i posted some info today in my cbb thread and already have a few people that have signed up to do umpire collection. If you are interested, just post in this thread and let me know. I'll assign you one of the opening games, and you will follow that umpire crew for the entire year.
everthing you are going to need will be available on the net or newspapers. you will need a copy of excel or other spreadsheet program to keep the data. It's a very simple process so feel free to ask any questions, or vol to be one of the ump crew followers.
link to ump spreadsheet
http://s35.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=2OZMTMBNYJ1GW1O8OL2HGNR9N2
1st game starts sunday, i'm taking the 1st game, and will post it as an example of how to collect the data
this is not my thread, but all of your threads, so hope we can all learn something and make some money as well.
p.s. johnnie detroit let it ride did have umpire data, but not sure if they or any other site will have it. the key will be the other factors that are in the spreadsheet to give us more potential game to bet on
tks and good luck to al
