What are something that you consider when handicapping a game?

PublicsMoney · Mar 29, 2006

I know that during the course of a season alot of teams go through losing and of course winning streaks. Was wondering if you ride a team that is hot, or do you stay away? Is anyone set on playing underdogs? For example> I had a friend that was convinced that he would never play a dog if it were 160 or more......told me that 160's will come in on the favorites side 3-1 in the long run. Just curious about all the strategies that come into play from all you cappers. Has anyone tracked opening lines all year long? I think when playing baseball all season long there has to be a system. Thanks for the input. Cant wait until the season gets started. Ill be posting my plays here throughout the season when possible. Batter Up!

Pubs:money8:

TheAce · Mar 30, 2006

i watch pitcing matchups

Insiders · Mar 30, 2006

I try to keep a lookout for teams that have won or lost 3 games in a row. I try to play streaks of Winners and Losers, if they praice is not to high!

Christian · Mar 30, 2006

don't follow streaks (either winning or losing)...

handicap each individual game, regardless of how many games that team has won or lost coming into the game.

a team may have won (or lost) quite a few games in a row just due to just pure dumb luck...maybe some unearned runs or blown saves by their opponents, etc.

look at each team's CURRENT performance, their CURRENT batting stats and CURRENT pitching stats. just because they're winning or losing doesn't mean they're doing any BETTER or WORSE recently.

check out a team's, say, last 8-10 games played. check out their recent stats broken down by both home/away (depending on where the upcoming game is being played) and also vs. L or R handed pitching (depending on who their opposing pitcher is in the upcoming game...

these are the stats that are important in handicapping a game, as far as batting stats are concerned.

as for pitching, add up the pitcher's expected innings pitched (based on his previous 3-5 starts, you can estimate his current longevity in games) and formulate how many runs he should give up (again, based in his CURRENT ERA, not season-to-date ERA)...

then, add that with the expected bullpen's ERA over their expected # of innings pitched for the upcoming game you're handicapping....

and finally add the average UNEARNED runs per game that team is giving up...this is how you can formulate the expected pitching/defensive stats.

streaks in baseball mean nothing. until a team's actual batting or pitching stats change (for the better or worse) don't bet a team just because they're suddenly winning or losing.

you have to handicap how they're batting and pitching, not if they're winning or losing...

then after determining how they're batting and pitching, you can formulate their chances of winning, compare it to the moneyline prices and look for value. i hope this helps.

ButI'mTedBell · Mar 30, 2006

Christian said:
don't follow streaks (either winning or losing)...

handicap each individual game, regardless of how many games that team has won or lost coming into the game.

a team may have won (or lost) quite a few games in a row just due to just pure dumb luck...maybe some unearned runs or blown saves by their opponents, etc.

look at each team's CURRENT performance, their CURRENT batting stats and CURRENT pitching stats. just because they're winning or losing doesn't mean they're doing any BETTER or WORSE recently.

check out a team's, say, last 8-10 games played. check out their recent stats broken down by both home/away (depending on where the upcoming game is being played) and also vs. L or R handed pitching (depending on who their opposing pitcher is in the upcoming game...

these are the stats that are important in handicapping a game, as far as batting stats are concerned.

as for pitching, add up the pitcher's expected innings pitched (based on his previous 3-5 starts, you can estimate his current longevity in games) and formulate how many runs he should give up (again, based in his CURRENT ERA, not season-to-date ERA)...

then, add that with the expected bullpen's ERA over their expected # of innings pitched for the upcoming game you're handicapping....

and finally add the average UNEARNED runs per game that team is giving up...this is how you can formulate the expected pitching/defensive stats.

streaks in baseball mean nothing. until a team's actual batting or pitching stats change (for the better or worse) don't bet a team just because they're suddenly winning or losing.

you have to handicap how they're batting and pitching, not if they're winning or losing...

then after determining how they're batting and pitching, you can formulate their chances of winning, compare it to the moneyline prices and look for value. i hope this helps.

Although I've never handicapped or wagered on a baseball game, this looks like sound advice. I love baseball, and follow it pretty closely, more so the last 2 or 3 years. Use to follow it very closely until they decided not to play the WS. Slowly, I've come back. I love wagering on NFL and college football games, with a mix of college b-ball throw in. Never ventured into baseball, mainly because of bankroll discipline. Fortunately, I had some success this past season, so I'm looking at giving baseball a try.

I especially agree with looking at each game individually. Never been a trend player. In regards to your system with current stats, on an 8-10 game window, how do you approach the beginning of the season? How much value do you put into spring games leading up to season as far as stats are concerned?

Thanks for the advice. And go D-Rays :drink:

heelman · Mar 30, 2006

I have made a living off baseball for a long time because I played top line sports for a long time and parylayed that into a nice living. That does not mean I havnt lost before but overall, very productive. A few major keys are pitching match-ups. Pitcher against the hitting line-up where numerous mis matches appear are major. 2 what is going on now, meaning who is hot now and who is cold. Every player, regardless how good goes through 4 to 6 game slumps and when combined with 2 or 3 other players joining him it spells diasaster.3 The bullpen gets wore out due to shoddy pitching pitching. The team may still be winning but that losing streak is coming because the manager will have to sacfrice a few games for thr best interest of the team. Final conclusion money to be made, but you must follow every night and do not be afraid of high lines!! HOPE YOU HAVE LOTS OF LUCK!!!!!!!