I wonder if its pyschological that when the word Pyschology is used in the title, people assume they are going to read something smart?
Anyhow, with Baseball just around the corner it seems the same posts that were made before NBA and NFL have surfaced over the last month, how Dogs are the bet, going against the public etc, etc. When reading these posts, a common thread appears time and time again, all of which is psycholgical, a clear line is drawn between The Fav and The Dog as if they were Two different Animals instead of Two ends of the same Beast, its OK to lose on a Dog but losing on a Fav is tantamount to being mugged, and nobody owns up to be on the public play, even if it wins it will be for some other obscure reason.
One of the reasons for this is Humans have a herd mentality and an individual doesnt want to be seen as a loner, but the bigger reason is the majority havent a clue how to quantify value. Putting aside the obvious, Line shopping is another misconception where nobody actually says that paying the cheapest price for something is a waste of time if the product is useless. Without having some sort of system for differentiating between a +125 and a +150 Dog, getting the best price is the same as buying old meat from a Butcher cheap, do it enough times and your going to be sick.
Although there is countless ways of h'capping games and statistics, all can be used on a sliding scale within itself. Find the parameters of your stats, the worth of scores, then compare it to the books prices, have a staking table that takes in what appears to be any extra value and your half way to getting the most out of betting. Of course all this is on the basis that the stats or method you are working from is fundamentally sound.
Anyhow, with Baseball just around the corner it seems the same posts that were made before NBA and NFL have surfaced over the last month, how Dogs are the bet, going against the public etc, etc. When reading these posts, a common thread appears time and time again, all of which is psycholgical, a clear line is drawn between The Fav and The Dog as if they were Two different Animals instead of Two ends of the same Beast, its OK to lose on a Dog but losing on a Fav is tantamount to being mugged, and nobody owns up to be on the public play, even if it wins it will be for some other obscure reason.
One of the reasons for this is Humans have a herd mentality and an individual doesnt want to be seen as a loner, but the bigger reason is the majority havent a clue how to quantify value. Putting aside the obvious, Line shopping is another misconception where nobody actually says that paying the cheapest price for something is a waste of time if the product is useless. Without having some sort of system for differentiating between a +125 and a +150 Dog, getting the best price is the same as buying old meat from a Butcher cheap, do it enough times and your going to be sick.
Although there is countless ways of h'capping games and statistics, all can be used on a sliding scale within itself. Find the parameters of your stats, the worth of scores, then compare it to the books prices, have a staking table that takes in what appears to be any extra value and your half way to getting the most out of betting. Of course all this is on the basis that the stats or method you are working from is fundamentally sound.
