I haven’t handicapped a sporting event since the Super Bowl so I am eager to get back into the swing of things. Keep in mind when handicapping the first month of baseball, it is different from any other month. Some things that have been consistent over time (for the most part) during the month of April are the following:
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- Pitchers are on a smaller pitch count during the first couple of starts, as they try to build up their arm. This especially holds true for pitchers who predominantly rely on the fastballs, and pitchers who are backed by a solid and deep bullpen. Assuming this holds true for all pitchers is a misconception. Changeup pitchers and workhorses when pitching well will go deep into ballgames during the first week of the season.
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- Shy away from betting on the best teams (for the most part) during the first couple of weeks. Teams usually don’t reach their potential until the second or third month of the season, yet line makers have the tendency of pricing them to their potential during the first weeks. This often creates value for underdogs and less popular teams that have the ability to upset the better teams during the first couple of weeks.
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-Since bullpens usually are forced to eat up more innings than usual, they have the tendency of being overworked early. Shy away from teams with overworked bullpens, especially when combined with hard throwing starters that have the tendency of not being able to eat up innings.
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-Hitters are usually behind pitchers during the first couple of weeks. Therefore betting on teams with a quality lineup but lack pitching can lead to a diminished bankroll. These teams are usually public favorites and come with a lofty price tag. However, they are also vulnerable to underachievement during the first couple of weeks. This tendency also leads one to believe that unders make for a better bet early on as well.
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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> Indians @ <st1:City><st1lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> White Sox
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Play: Under 8
Comment:
Pros:
If there is any pitcher in baseball that can eat up innings and will not be on a small pitch count during his first game of the season, it is Mark Buehrle. He his ability to heavily rely on his change and get hitters out early in the counts allows him to go deep into games without over working his arm. Last year he opened up against the same Indians team, and was able to pitch 8 innings, and only allowed 2 hits, one walk and no runs. He followed that up by pitching 16 innings in his next two starts. Buehrle was downright dominant at home last year, finishing the season with an ERA nearly 1.5 lower than on the road. He also put forth solid outing in every start against the Indians last year except one, where he was mostly roughed up by Crisp, a player no longer on the team. Last year, the Indians were one of the worst teams against left handed pitchers; hitting 23 points lower than they did against right handed pitchers. Last year Hafner (the Indians best hitter) only managed 1 hit against Buerhle in 11 at bats, while Perralta and <st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City> (there second and third best hitters) managed only 4 hits combined in 23 at bats. Blake and Belliard also struggled against the lefty, getting 4 hits in a combined 27 tries. In their career, Hafner, Brousard, <st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City>, and Perralta are all hitting below .200 against Buerhle. In their career, the 3, 4, 5 hitters on the Indians have managed only one homer combined against Buerhle in 52 at bats. Buerhle is also being backed by three solid bullpen pitchers that could close out the game without allowing many runs.
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Sabathia is also a good pitcher for an under better in this spot. Last April, Sabathia allowed only 2 runs in nearly 20 innings. April has always been one of his better months. During the second half of the season last year, Sabathia changed his pitching style, by not throwing his fastballs as hard. This actually added velocity to his fastball, while allowing him to increase his pitch count and have more control over his pitchers. This change in styles allowed him to finish the last 2 months of the season as one of the top 5 most dominant pitchers in the game. Last year, Sabathia pitched two games against the White Sox, one being a solid outing, while the other being sub par. However, in the latter game, he was roughed up by Ozuna and Widger, two players not expected to be in the lineup on Sunday. Sabathia has always been an equally as good of a pitcher on the road as he has at home. More importantly, US Cellular has been Sabathia’s best ballpark, as he comes into Sunday’s game with a 2.28 career ERA there. Konerko and Thome are the White Sox two most dangerous hitters. However, Thome has always struggled against left handed pitchers in his career, and has been getting progressively worse against them. Although Konerko prefers left handed pitching, he is 5 for 36 against Sabathia (.136 BA), and has only one home run against him. Other hitters on the White Sox that Sabathia has dominated includes Crede (2 for 15), Uribe (5 for 24), and Pierzinski (1 for 6). He two is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league that have also faired well against the White Sox. The White Sox more than any other team, rely on aggressive base running and stealing to score runs. However, their best base running threat, Podsednik, is fighting a groin injury that should hinder his running ability. Sabathia also does a solid job holding runners on, while the first couple of weeks, managers are less reluctant to be aggressive on the base paths.
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Cons:
Anything can happen during the first week of the season, and this week, more than any lacks the tendency of playing to fundamental form. There is a lack of value on the under as well, as I expected it to open at 8.5. Betting unders this low in one of the best hitters’ ballparks is not terribly appealing. There is also heavy forecasted wind that could play a factor in this game. The Indians are a much improved hitting team when compared to last April when Buerhle dominated them. They also are one of the better hitting road teams, and their style is suited for this ball park. Sabathia is a very streaky pitcher, and he could single handedly kill this under in a matter of a few innings if he comes in with the lack of control he is vulnerable too. The White Sox bullpen is not nearly as dangerous as it was last year, and their closer has been experiencing problems this Spring Training. He also struggled against the Indians last year.
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Conclusion:
There are just too many indicators favoring the under in this game to not take a chance with it. Both pitchers have owned their respected opponents lineup and best hitters. Both bullpens are above average, while hitters have the tendency to be behind pitchers this early in the season. These factors allow me to feel comfortable taking the under even when it lacks value. I am on the under in this game.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>- Pitchers are on a smaller pitch count during the first couple of starts, as they try to build up their arm. This especially holds true for pitchers who predominantly rely on the fastballs, and pitchers who are backed by a solid and deep bullpen. Assuming this holds true for all pitchers is a misconception. Changeup pitchers and workhorses when pitching well will go deep into ballgames during the first week of the season.
<o
> </o>- Shy away from betting on the best teams (for the most part) during the first couple of weeks. Teams usually don’t reach their potential until the second or third month of the season, yet line makers have the tendency of pricing them to their potential during the first weeks. This often creates value for underdogs and less popular teams that have the ability to upset the better teams during the first couple of weeks.
<o
> </o>-Since bullpens usually are forced to eat up more innings than usual, they have the tendency of being overworked early. Shy away from teams with overworked bullpens, especially when combined with hard throwing starters that have the tendency of not being able to eat up innings.
<o
> </o>-Hitters are usually behind pitchers during the first couple of weeks. Therefore betting on teams with a quality lineup but lack pitching can lead to a diminished bankroll. These teams are usually public favorites and come with a lofty price tag. However, they are also vulnerable to underachievement during the first couple of weeks. This tendency also leads one to believe that unders make for a better bet early on as well.
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></o><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> Indians @ <st1:City><st1lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> White Sox<o
></o>Play: Under 8
Comment:
Pros:
If there is any pitcher in baseball that can eat up innings and will not be on a small pitch count during his first game of the season, it is Mark Buehrle. He his ability to heavily rely on his change and get hitters out early in the counts allows him to go deep into games without over working his arm. Last year he opened up against the same Indians team, and was able to pitch 8 innings, and only allowed 2 hits, one walk and no runs. He followed that up by pitching 16 innings in his next two starts. Buehrle was downright dominant at home last year, finishing the season with an ERA nearly 1.5 lower than on the road. He also put forth solid outing in every start against the Indians last year except one, where he was mostly roughed up by Crisp, a player no longer on the team. Last year, the Indians were one of the worst teams against left handed pitchers; hitting 23 points lower than they did against right handed pitchers. Last year Hafner (the Indians best hitter) only managed 1 hit against Buerhle in 11 at bats, while Perralta and <st1:City><st1
lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City> (there second and third best hitters) managed only 4 hits combined in 23 at bats. Blake and Belliard also struggled against the lefty, getting 4 hits in a combined 27 tries. In their career, Hafner, Brousard, <st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City>, and Perralta are all hitting below .200 against Buerhle. In their career, the 3, 4, 5 hitters on the Indians have managed only one homer combined against Buerhle in 52 at bats. Buerhle is also being backed by three solid bullpen pitchers that could close out the game without allowing many runs.<o
> </o>Sabathia is also a good pitcher for an under better in this spot. Last April, Sabathia allowed only 2 runs in nearly 20 innings. April has always been one of his better months. During the second half of the season last year, Sabathia changed his pitching style, by not throwing his fastballs as hard. This actually added velocity to his fastball, while allowing him to increase his pitch count and have more control over his pitchers. This change in styles allowed him to finish the last 2 months of the season as one of the top 5 most dominant pitchers in the game. Last year, Sabathia pitched two games against the White Sox, one being a solid outing, while the other being sub par. However, in the latter game, he was roughed up by Ozuna and Widger, two players not expected to be in the lineup on Sunday. Sabathia has always been an equally as good of a pitcher on the road as he has at home. More importantly, US Cellular has been Sabathia’s best ballpark, as he comes into Sunday’s game with a 2.28 career ERA there. Konerko and Thome are the White Sox two most dangerous hitters. However, Thome has always struggled against left handed pitchers in his career, and has been getting progressively worse against them. Although Konerko prefers left handed pitching, he is 5 for 36 against Sabathia (.136 BA), and has only one home run against him. Other hitters on the White Sox that Sabathia has dominated includes Crede (2 for 15), Uribe (5 for 24), and Pierzinski (1 for 6). He two is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league that have also faired well against the White Sox. The White Sox more than any other team, rely on aggressive base running and stealing to score runs. However, their best base running threat, Podsednik, is fighting a groin injury that should hinder his running ability. Sabathia also does a solid job holding runners on, while the first couple of weeks, managers are less reluctant to be aggressive on the base paths.
<o
> </o>Cons:
Anything can happen during the first week of the season, and this week, more than any lacks the tendency of playing to fundamental form. There is a lack of value on the under as well, as I expected it to open at 8.5. Betting unders this low in one of the best hitters’ ballparks is not terribly appealing. There is also heavy forecasted wind that could play a factor in this game. The Indians are a much improved hitting team when compared to last April when Buerhle dominated them. They also are one of the better hitting road teams, and their style is suited for this ball park. Sabathia is a very streaky pitcher, and he could single handedly kill this under in a matter of a few innings if he comes in with the lack of control he is vulnerable too. The White Sox bullpen is not nearly as dangerous as it was last year, and their closer has been experiencing problems this Spring Training. He also struggled against the Indians last year.
<o
> </o>Conclusion:
There are just too many indicators favoring the under in this game to not take a chance with it. Both pitchers have owned their respected opponents lineup and best hitters. Both bullpens are above average, while hitters have the tendency to be behind pitchers this early in the season. These factors allow me to feel comfortable taking the under even when it lacks value. I am on the under in this game.
