Last Minute Baseball Questions

winbet · Mar 31, 2006

Without going too deep, Baseball seems to have all the same situations as a great original game, Cricket. While I am quiet learned on that game, Baseball is completely new. As in Cricket, Baseball is awash with stats but, in the last over when a team needs 8 runs, it doesnt matter how many stats you look at, the geezer has to hit the ball.:drink:

Firstly, the question of home advantage, maybe like Cricket, its confrontational or unusal surroundings but otherwise, the best will prevail. From a betting angle I would say -15, what do you think? batting second must give you a tatical advantage.

Weather: In Cricket, the ball moves better with overcast skies, so the advantage is with the bowler, is it the same in baseball?

All-rounder: In Cricket there are players who are just great at everything they do and betting their team is basically betting them, is there one horse teams out there, because its only a matter of pricing it up.

Lastly, good luck to all this season.:thumbsup2:

JakeT. · Mar 31, 2006

Home field in MLB is worth 15-30 cents. Depends on the team and the home field though.

I am pretty sure cold weather causes the ball to not carry as far but I wouldn't look too hard into weather when capping MLB. Wind should be checked but don't bother with anything less than a 15 MPH wind because it doesn't matter much. One thing to check out it the humidity when a knuckleballer is on the mound. Knuckleballs (and junk pitches in general) do better with a high humidity.

Not many "one-horse" teams in baseball. One guy can only carry a team so far and injuries to key players are usually over-compensated for by most people. If the Royals lose Mike Sweeney or the Marlins lose Miguel Cabrera the offense will suffer because they are the primary hitters, but don't look too hard into it. One guy can only do so much for run-production.

winbet · Mar 31, 2006

Thanks Jake,
I was only trying to confirm a few things. :103631605

Insiders · Mar 31, 2006

Winbet

Wind is the main thing at Wrigley where the Cubbies play, and alot of daytime action as well. Wind is HUGE advantage there, either way, in or out. I like it when its blowing out with 2 so so pitchers with tried bull pens for the late innings. Book have wised up to this in the last few years. It was Sweet while it lasted. You will see very very few overnight totals here in day action. They will wait as long as possible before hanging up anykind of a number here also. Usually one of the Big shops throws something up and after it settles the rest stick their heads out with that one.
#1 Pitchers
#2 Bull Pens
#3 Pray !! lol

You will notice that ALOT of MLB games are deceided in the 8th and 9th innings.
AL with the DH totals are most always above 10.
NL without DH much lower 6.5 - 9

winbet · Mar 31, 2006

Insiders,
Thanks for replying to this and other posts I have made, there is no doubting you enthusiasm for Basball and I hope you have a great season.

By the way, dont feel pressured in any way of giving picks or making comments that come unstuck later, the smart geezers on here know the score. All that matters is people give opinions.:drink:

zee · Mar 31, 2006

I completely disagree with Insiders. Analyzing wind is way more difficult than looking at the pitchers & the direction, betting overnight lines on weather is crazy, and there are at least 5 ballparks(of the top of my head, there are probably more) where wind plays WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY bigger role than @ Wrigley. The fact that books hold on lines for Wrigley simply means that there is a very nice almost "urban legend" that they'd like to keep going on. I'm not saying wind @ Wrigley is not a factor, but it's nowhere near the thing people try to make it out.
So so pitchers + wind out = overs, I'd gladly take 1.1 on you getting broke within 3 months.

Insiders · Mar 31, 2006

zee said:
I completely disagree with Insiders. Analyzing wind is way more difficult than looking at the pitchers & the direction, betting overnight lines on weather is crazy, and there are at least 5 ballparks(of the top of my head, there are probably more) where wind plays WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY bigger role than @ Wrigley. The fact that books hold on lines for Wrigley simply means that there is a very nice almost "urban legend" that they'd like to keep going on. I'm not saying wind @ Wrigley is not a factor, but it's nowhere near the thing people try to make it out.
So so pitchers + wind out = overs, I'd gladly take 1.1 on you getting broke within 3 months.

ROTFLMAO !! Was winning cub totals before offshore was offshore.
If you have doubts ask the "used" to be main man at Cris!
obtw Just watch an see if the makers dont hold those totals off the board Longer than ANY other.
A Great Metoroligist used to reside in Chicago, he now is retired an lives in the desert from $$ that were made on Cub Totals. But that was then an this is now, there ALL awake to it now!

But take my advice, and do as you damn well please.

ThePig+ · Apr 1, 2006

Insiders, that guy is a freakin' idiot.

winbet · Apr 1, 2006

Steady on now lads, the season hasnt even started. My opinion is it doesnt matter what the sport is, all these things are taken into consideration. They dont pay some geezer to knock up prices who hasnt a clue, thats why you have to work on things he might know but cannot incorperate into the spread.:drink:

FairWarning · Apr 1, 2006

Winbet - the pitcher is the most important person in baseball. He has a bigger effect on the price than Barry Bonds.

For people capping the weather at Wrigley-be careful as they have exanded the bleachers 1700 seats. This will knock down some of the north winds that blow in at the beginning of the season. Very hard to cap early until we can see the effect of this.

FairWarning · Apr 1, 2006

zee said:
I completely disagree with Insiders. Analyzing wind is way more difficult than looking at the pitchers & the direction, betting overnight lines on weather is crazy, and there are at least 5 ballparks(of the top of my head, there are probably more) where wind plays WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY bigger role than @ Wrigley. The fact that books hold on lines for Wrigley simply means that there is a very nice almost "urban legend" that they'd like to keep going on. I'm not saying wind @ Wrigley is not a factor, but it's nowhere near the thing people try to make it out.
So so pitchers + wind out = overs, I'd gladly take 1.1 on you getting broke within 3 months.

I cannot think of one.

FYI - If you see an 11+ on a Wrigley total, pound the over.

JimmyHoffa · Apr 1, 2006

FairWarning said:
the pitcher is the most important person in baseball. He has a bigger effect on the price than Barry Bonds.

This is the stone-cold fact of baseball betting in a nutshell. And, I disagree with Jake on 15-30 cent home field advantage. Maybe the bookmakers build that much into a home team, but I don't.

zee · Apr 1, 2006

I don't see any need for the personal comments. I was stating an opinion. I've never said that my way to bet baseball totals is the best(although I believe it to be, because of my huuuuge ego), but oversimplifying the totals betting to pitchers & wind even @ Wrigley is not serious. I'm sure that you don't simply look @ say "He has 4.80 ERA, the other guy has 5.20 ERA, and it's 13mph out to CF. That 9.5 line is gonna get smoked.". I have trouble believing that anybody who does something similar will be a winner long term. It's not your method I question, it's how you explained it.

About the ballparks, I was refering to All American, Busch(RIP), Baltimore, Dodger & San Fran. In all those stadiums I have wind situations that could influence a totals bet more than @ Wrigley.

FYI - If you see an 11+ on a Wrigley total, pound the over.

There have been 2 double digit totals @ Wrigley for last year and it split 1-1.
Have a great start of the baseball season guys and I'm sure we'll get the chance to debate totals at some point.

aceduecetrey · Apr 1, 2006

zee said:
I don't see any need for the personal comments. I was stating an opinion. I've never said that my way to bet baseball totals is the best(although I believe it to be, because of my huuuuge ego), but oversimplifying the totals betting to pitchers & wind even @ Wrigley is not serious. I'm sure that you don't simply look @ say "He has 4.80 ERA, the other guy has 5.20 ERA, and it's 13mph out to CF. That 9.5 line is gonna get smoked.". I have trouble believing that anybody who does something similar will be a winner long term. It's not your method I question, it's how you explained it.

About the ballparks, I was refering to All American, Busch(RIP), Baltimore, Dodger & San Fran. In all those stadiums I have wind situations that could influence a totals bet more than @ Wrigley.

There have been 2 double digit totals @ Wrigley for last year and it split 1-1.
Have a great start of the baseball season guys and I'm sure we'll get the chance to debate totals at some point.

there were only 2 double digit total at wrigley?

NO WAY!

Christian · Apr 1, 2006

Jimmy Hoffa said:
And, I disagree with Jake on 15-30 cent home field advantage. Maybe the bookmakers build that much into a home team, but I don't.

exactly. no different than it's wrong to automatically give an NFL team a 3-point edge for home field advantage, it's wrong to automatically assign ANY edge for an MLB team just because they're playing at home...

each team (in EVERY sport) must be assigned their "home field advantage" based on THEIR home/away stats. and EACH team is DIFFERENT.

some teams (again, in ALL sports) have HUGE home field advantages, some have moderate advantages, some have NONE! in fact, some teams play better on the road than at home.

NEVER assign an arbitrary value to home field advantage in any sport. handicap EACH team and THEIR home/away stats individually.

aceduecetrey · Apr 1, 2006

Christian said:
exactly. no different than it's wrong to automatically give an NFL team a 3-point edge for home field advantage, it's wrong to automatically assign ANY edge for an MLB team just because they're playing at home...

each team (in EVERY sport) must be assigned their "home field advantage" based on THEIR home/away stats. and EACH team is DIFFERENT.

some teams (again, in ALL sports) have HUGE home field advantages, some have moderate advantages, some have NONE! in fact, some teams play better on the road than at home.

NEVER assign an arbitrary value to home field advantage in any sport. handicap EACH team and THEIR home/away stats individually.

How much is the advantage of batting last though?

winbet · Apr 1, 2006

I dont know about Baseball but in any other sport your wind can wreak havoc with your betting. :drink:

Seriously though, I accept what people are saying about the Pitcher but where's the edge, surely thats where the books spend their time. All I know is, after dipping my toe in the baseball water last year it seemed very much like cricket, where its all about whether the geezer hits the ball or not. Thats why I think Home-runs can be exploited, its all a matter of pricing it up in your favour. I must admit to being a bit uncomfortable about how to price home advantage, what worth I put on it could be the difference between a bet or not.

This is a completely new game for me but I have put some time in and based my operations around my usual train of thought which is, its no good going down the same road as the odds-makers to price up a game. The HR average per game is easily priced as it ranged from .72 to 1.6 last year, compare that to last years best/worse run differential of 1.7 and there has to be an edge. :drink:

Santo · Apr 1, 2006

There were 5 games lined at 10 (Over 1-4), 6 at 10.5 (Over 2-4), 1 at 11 (Over 0-1), 2 at 11.5 (Over 1-1), 2 at 12 (Over 1-1), 1 at 12.5 (Over 0-1) and 1 at 14.5 (Over 1-0 -- 11-10) at Wrigley in 05

So 18 games in double digits, and the over was 7-11

gak555 · Apr 1, 2006

Zee,
Which other ball parks in your opinion does the wind have a greater effect than Wrigley ?

Thanks

FairWarning · Apr 1, 2006

I personally don't put much value in home vs road in baseball. I look into bullpens more. Think of the starting pitcher as a hockey goalie. They are the ones who control the game most. A hot/unhittable pitcher stops good hitting more often than not. I look at extra inning games. If Team A uses 3-4 pitchers 2-3 games in a row, and don't have their ace pitcher starting - they are a good go-against team. Also a better possibility for an over with a tired bullpen. The Cubs are good fades the first home game after long road trips because of the day games.

A solid book like Olympic is great for betting team O/U.

Good luck.