After a nice 20 unit bump into my account after taking the Gators + Over

Do I head on and continue back with the NBA or go right to MLB??

Started the MLB late in the season last year to mess around in the final 2 months of the season and post season. turned out very profitable too. The only thing is i'm still learning playing MLB (e.g. runlines, bio rhythms, umps, pitchers history, etc)

The problem as we all know is the NBA is such an unpredictable sport night in night out. The NBA makes my pinny account do dips and dives, skyrockets then hangs around even after one month of action. WTF?!

Layed alot of money on tonights game, 1/4 of my bankroll. I know money management and all, yea, yea. It's just sometimes...you get one of those feelings whereby fading the hype feels right. (e.g. the bruins defense and their dynasty story, etc)

Anyhow, would like to take the nice bump in my account and use it smartly. as for making money in MLB, while I'm still learning to cap the sport i just followed the good cappers. thinking of doing it now, since i'm so sick of the swings in the NBA.

thoughts welcome.

i like your plan

3peet said:

thoughts welcome.

Click to expand...

wow, where do i even begin?

first, if you wagered 1/4 of your bankroll on ANY two plays...you obviously like playing financial russian roulette. that type of behavior is going to bankrupt you sooner or later.

anyway, there are swings in EVERY sport. if you really think you can win money every day or every week OR EVEN every month in this business, you're fooling yourself. it just doesn't work like that.

betting on each and every sport will produce swings in bankroll. granted, if you know what you're doing and have a true winning expectation then you will come out profitable in the long-run. but it won't be a steady, even climb to profits. no different than a stock price going up over the year. it WILL be a bumpy ride. there is NO avoiding that, in ANY sport.

and about MLB handicapping, forget about biorhythms...that's all nonsense. just stick with analyzing each team's current stats (broken down by home and away stats and vs. L or R-handed pitching) and each pitcher's current stats coupled with bullpen's current stats, etc etc...

obviously, those aren't the only things that are important in handicapping an MLB game, that's just a very quick overview...we could be here all night discussing all the important factors that need to be analyzed, but you get the idea.

baseball is the easiest sport to bet for statistical handicappers since subjectives factors come into play far less than, say, the NFL (i.e. motivation)

if you're still learning to handicap the MLB, i wouldn't risk any of your own money (unless you're following someone elses picks) but do your own handicapping and track yourself, but only on paper. don't risk money on your own picks cause you're only going to lose...hey, it happened to all of us at the beginning.

oh, and one more thing. you should really tighten up your money management. i wouldn't risk any more than 1% of your bankroll on all your MLB plays....or 2% at the very maximum!

but from the way you described yourself in your post, i'm sure you'll bet way over your head. but hey, at least i tried to warn you.

good luck to you, whatever you end up doing!

thanks for the advice guys. As far as my betting schemes. Yea it can definitely be worked on. To be honest this year is the first year I've actually tried a money management system. Primarily flat betting 90% of the time with marginal increases say 3-5% bumps depending on winning streak.

Tonight was one of those "crazy" things I do 3-4 times a year.

I realize making money in this hobby is definitely a grind. Yes swings do happen I realize that as well. Had I bet like I used to I'm sure Id'a reloaded my account for a 5th time since the beginning of the NFL. Actually proud that I"m still working off of my opening balance from my start in the MLB last season.

Money management is definitely a disipline I'm continuously working on. But I guess thats a different topic all together.


thanks for the advice on capping the MLB. I think I'll stay away from the NBA unless i perhaps jump in a few times a month on it. It would be great to learn more on bases so now's a good time as any. For now i'll stay with piggybacking. I know it's talentless but hey were all here to make money right?


thanks for the suggestions.

if you want to learn how to handicap MLB, i'd definitely suggest reading anything by Bob McCune. he wrote some great books and his formulas for handicapping MLB were excellent! much of it is still relevent today. i still use his pitcher/defense formula to factor in the pitching side of the matchup.

it will be the BEST money you EVER invest towards your MLB handicapping education. i promise you.

anyway, aside from that, check out the stats on usatoday.com. they have great breakdowns of all the relevants stats in a game matchup (they use covers.com format). you can find current stats for each (batting avg., runs scored, etc. vs both L and R-handed pitching)...

you'll find each pitcher and bullpens current stats as well. along with league averages to index your formulas off of.

it's a lot of work, but it can be well worth it. besides, the only way to gamble and win easy money is through the lottery. sports betting is no different than any other investment. your pay-off is dependent on how much work you put into it.

and i'm glad you realize the potential danger in "betting over your head" and risking too much of your bankroll. i hope you're able to keep your discipline.

trust me, there's no bettor in the world that looks back on their younger years and says "i'm glad i was NOT disciplined in my money management" you will NEVER find a bettor who says those words. that should be all you need to know. good luck!