Boxslayer32's Wednesday Baseball

Boxslayer · Apr 5, 2006

Record update shortly.

3* Detroit Tigers -146 (Pinny) Bonderman
1* Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+105) (Pinny) Bonderman

This year Bonderman will really blossom. Look for him to have a nice opening day start against a poor Royals team.

Back later

Good Luck...

Boxslayer · Apr 5, 2006

YTD: (3-4, -2.39 units)

Yesterday: (1-3, -3.27) Bad loss with the Angels yesterday. Seattle's 5 run inning early was a killer, and the Angels bats didnt wake up until the final innings. Toronto was a nice winner, playing on Halladay and the Jays and fading Johan's early season changeup.

SkinsRaj28 · Apr 5, 2006

Snap, I'm on the Tigers as well...GL.

Bennyshoe · Apr 5, 2006

Looks like you're going to sweep your DET picks. 10-0 so far!

Boxslayer · Apr 5, 2006

YTD: (5-4, +1.66 units)

Today: (2-0, +4.05 units)

Nice hit with the Tigers, first 3* play of the season in the day game.

Tonight:

2* Twins/BlueJays over 9 (-108)
1* Baltimore Orioles -1 (-107) Bedard
1* St. Louis Cardinals (-111) Mulder
1* Marlins/Astros under 9 (-115)

2* play tonight is another fade off soft-tossing pitchers early in the season. Towers is crafty for the Jays, but the Twins should have that slider bat speed. Radke is probably in his final year, and both pitchers face a couple of lineups that got off to a solid start on opening day.

Good Luck...

Boxslayer · Apr 5, 2006

YTD: (8-5, +4.51)

Today: (5-1, +6.90)

1* LA Dodgers -1 (+134) Perez
1* Giants/Padres over 8 (-108)

Odalis Perez is another pitcher I look to really do well in 2006. Dodgers have come out and played the Braves tough first two games, getting the split. Dodgers have shown some resiliency coming from behind against Atlanta, and I like their pitching matchup in this game. Both games have been relatively high scoring and I count on the left handed Perez to give the Braves a different look tonight out in LA.

I liked the Giants last night with that pitching matchup, and I like over tonight with this matchup. Soft tossing Lowry should have a rough time tonight, as have all other soft tossers or changeup dominant pitchers such as Johan and Towers.

Good Luck...
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Boxslayer · Apr 5, 2006

Terrific, was expecting Lowry to pitch according to everything I looked at. And Morris is out there. Terrific for my over. :nohead:

SkinsRaj28 · Apr 5, 2006

Lowry vs Sosa tomorrow...the over might be a good play for that game. GL on this one, though. I thought Morris had always been the listed pitcher for tonight?

Boxslayer · Apr 5, 2006

I'll most likely be on that over in that one.

No, he was yesterday and I was scratching my head why he wouldnt start after a rain out. But I looked on cbssportsline and I think they listed Lowry and it screwed me up.

SizzleChest · Apr 5, 2006

Not that it may make much difference to you, but last year there was a stint where the Braves were having a very difficult run manufacturiong runs versus lefties. They did manage to finish nicely to balance their level versus lefties. Also Sosa performed well for the Braves last season. I would be more inclined for the under for this matchup. Good luck with your play.

Boxslayer · Apr 6, 2006

SizzleChest said:
Not that it may make much difference to you, but last year there was a stint where the Braves were having a very difficult run manufacturiong runs versus lefties. They did manage to finish nicely to balance their level versus lefties. Also Sosa performed well for the Braves last season. I would be more inclined for the under for this matchup. Good luck with your play.

Thanks for the input. Extra information always helps. Havn't looked at the game yet, but I am strictly fading soft tossing pitchers early in the year, and betting on harder throwers.

As a great baseball mentor of mine once said, "A hitter's bat will catch up with a 747 airplane if you give him enough looks at it, but it takes time."

Hitters will hit hard throwers, but they need to get looks and adjust. As the season progresses, the hard throwers will get hit.

Early in the season, hitters have that "slider bat speed", until they get back into mid-season form, their bat speed speeds up, and the crafty soft tossers get you out of your rythm. Early in the year, soft tossers or pitchers that rely on changeups get hit hard.

My play would be strictly a fade on Noah. I've had two plays similiar so far this year. Faded Johan Santana and his out pitch, his changeup. And I faded Towers today for the BlueJays. Both got hit.

Just sticking with what has been working, but I'll definitely give this one a 2nd look thanks to your comments. However, I usually don't put much weight into past trends. Last year's Braves, have nothing to do with this year's Braves.

Just like Freddy Garcia was the ultimate day game pitcher for the White Sox last year. He got shelled in his 1st day game. I try to leave past trends from other year's teams in the past.

Once again, thanks for your input.