Sekrah - Friday 4/7 Picks!

Yesterday: 8-3-1 (+5.90 units)
Season: 8-3-1 (+5.90 units)

Let's hope the hot start continues!

St. Louis vs Chicago .. RHP Jeff Suppon vs RHP Greg Maddux

Greg Maddux turns 40 next week! His ERA, WHIP, and BAA have been climbing steadily since the mid/late 90s. His velocity is tumbling and last year he had his first losing season lsince his full first year in 1987. Maddux is also a chronic slow starter. He's averaging well over 5.00+ ERA and around 1.50 WHIP the last four April's!

At 31, Jeff Suppon is pitching the best ball of his career. His last three seasons have been very solid and is shaping up to have another good one. He had tremendous success against the Cubs last season with 1.71 ERA, 1.22 WHP, and .238 BAA in 4 starts, including an 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 K gem in Wrigley.

The Cardinals are swinging the bats too well right now.

Cardinals ML -111 (1.11 unit to win 1 unit).
Cardinals 1stH pk -113 (1.13 unit to win 1 unit).

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Minnesota vs Cleveland .. RHP Kyle Lohse vs Paul Byrd

Interesting matchup. Both batting lineups (especially Minnesota's) hit right handed pitching very solidly. The Twins beat up Josh Towers badly in the 2nd game of the season for 10 H, 4 ER in 4 2/3 inning. They hit 2 HRs off Roy Halladay in the opener.

Cleveland are swinging the bats well, coming off 5.33 runs/G on the road vs a very good White Sox pitching staff. Kyle Lohse is not a great pitcher, he had a 1.43 WHIP and .299 BAA last season. After seeing some world class pitching, these pitches might look like softballs to the Cleveland hitters.

Paul Byrd is a fantastic pitcher but struggles against left handed hitting he also had problems early in the season last year finding his groove. The Twins hit Byrd up for a 4.43 ERA last year.

Twins/Indians Over 9.5 +103 (1 unit to win 1.03 units)
Twins/Indians 1stH Over 5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1 unit)


I'll post selections for the evening games sometime tomorrow afternoon.


Good Luck!
Sek

Adding:

Los Angeles vs Philadelphia .. RHP Brett Tomko vs RHP Gavin Floyd

Tomko has been a completely different pitcher away from home throughout his career. He had a 5.26 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .277 BAA last season on the road, and he posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.50 WHIP vs the Phillies last season. His struggles vs left-handed batters (1.45 WHIP, .282 BAA) sets up perfectly for the brunt of Philadelphia's lineup (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Abreu).

Youngster and top prospect Floyd had a tremendous spring after a very difficult season in 2005. Floyd was 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA this preseason. He's quoted yesterday that he feels very confident and he's cleared the cobwebs out of his head that were plaguing him last year. Gotta like the Phillies to avoid going 0-4.

Phillies ML -118 (1.18 units to win 1 unit)

Not that anybody should put too much stock in spring training results, but Kyle Lohse was awesome this March!

The thing with Lohse, to me as a scrutinizing Twins fan, is that he's got great stuff, but just has seemed immature to this point in his career, not quite able to string together the solid starts like we as fans felt he should.

He did that this spring, and Gardenhire and Anderson (pitching coach) were saying in papers up here that he finally looked like he was pitching, instead of throwing to batters. At +141 on pinnacle, I'm putting a nice little lump down on them, good value.

As I said, spring training means nothing if he gets his ass kicked tomorrow, but at least for this day I'm gonna try to cash in on what some in the baseball world aren't yet aware of (I hope so any way, as a TC fan).

I agree with your Phillies play!!

GL today!!

Adding:

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati .. LHP Paul Maholm v LHP Eric Milton

Line doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Eric Milton favored here? Sure he had a decent spring, but he's coming off a horrible season, and quite honestly, he was never that great when he was at his best 4-5 years ago in Minnesota. He absolutely got rocked by the Pirates last season for 9.18 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, .338 BAA (26 H, 17 ER in 16.2 IP).

Pirate send up Paul Maholm who had a stellar 6 starts in his MLB debut season in 06. 2.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .209 BAA. Small sample yes, but signs of a bright promising career. He faced 23 left handed batters, allowing just 2 hits to them (0.26 WHIP, .087 BAA). This really neutralizes Reds strength in left handed batting (Womack, Hatteberg, Griffey, Dunn), and both switch hitters in the Reds lineup, Felipe Lopez and Javier Valentine are not very strong vs lefties.

Meanwhile, looking at Pirates lineup, they were made to hit left handed pitchers. Bay hit .347, 1.064 OPS last year vs lefties. Other numbers vs lefties: Randa .306/.820, Casey .335/.820, Cota .294/.797.

Big play on the Pirates here.

Pirates ML +105 (2.00 units to win 2.10 units)
Pirates RL -1.5 +152 (1.00 unit to win 1.52 units)
Pirates 1stH -0.5 +127 (1.00 unit to win 1.27 units)

Adding:

Arizona vs Milwaukee .. RHP Russ Ortiz vs RHP Darren Bush

Ortiz had a terrible season last year going 5-11 with a 6.89 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, .313 BAA vs his career numbers of 4.23/1.45/.251. I would guess that he's lost it for whatever reason (steroids impact?). Ortiz got rocked in spring training, 0-3, 8.46 ERA. It looks like it's going to be another long year (or short if he keeps putting up those kind of numbers).

Brewers have a promising young pitcher in Bush, but Diamondbacks hit right handed pitching very well and they have been swinging the bats very nicely in the early part of the season. I think we're going to see some runs in this game.

D'Backs/Brewers Over 9 +103 (1.00 unit to win 1.03 unit).
D'Backs/Brewers 1stH Over 4.5 -114 (1.14 unit to win 1 unit)

Adding:

Detroit vs Texas .. LHP Mike Maroth vs LHP John Koronka

Quick writeup.. Both teams putting two weak LHP up and both teams crush LHP.. Steep line on the over, but it's there for a reason. Should see tons of runs in this one.


Tigers/Rangers Over 11 -120 (1.2 units to win 1 unit)
Tigers/Rangers 1stH Over 6 -109 (1.09 units to win 1 unit)