Mlb Road System

tony1 · Apr 7, 2006

MLB ROAD SYSTEM
I have mentioned on other posts concerning a mlb road system that I was considering. This system is similar to my nba road system but with a different slant. The idea is to bet against a tired road team on a 6 game or more road trip. We will bet only up to the last 3 games of a series. The series ends with a cover. I am experimenting with this idea on this basis: my success with the NBA road system (halves). I would like to use this forum to document this idea. You can just follow along or play it ... the decision is yours because I can not recommend it at this time due to no research data. We are using the effect of a long road series plus the below criteria to give an extra edge. The main difference with the MLB road system is that we are making an attempt to avoid the top starting pitchers for road teams in each league.

RULES:
1. Bet against the road team on a 6 game road trip or more.
2. Bet only the last three games of the road trip. Also, the last 3 games of the road trip must be against the same road team.
3. Use the moneyline when the odds are -125 or better. If not available, use the run line with the same criteria.
4. The first bet is to win one unit, if it does not cover, double bet plus juice for 2nd bet and the same for the 3rd bet. If this fails ... we will use a limited progression plan as illustrated below.
5. Eliminate the road series when the road team's pitcher is among the top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA for at least two of the three games but preferring three of three(see mlb website for proabable pitchers and usa today/sagarin for ERA stats).
6. Usually we will not start more than 3 new series per day. If we have more than 3 new series, we will continue to eliminate series with the following criteria. Eliminate road series when the road team pitchers are among the top 30 in ERA for at least two of the three games but preferring three of three.
7. At this point, we will play all new series even if we have more than 3 new series.
8. Rain-outs: If one of the games is a rain-out, we will make it a two game series. 1st and 2nd games are a rain-out, the series is cancelled. 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd games are a rain-outs, series is considered a one unit loss.

LIMITED PROGRESSION: Goes into effect after 3 losses in a series. You are moving from one series to the next when a cover is made until you show a profit for the series. This is OPTIONAL if you prefer not to use limited progression.

LIMITED PROGRESSION ... UNITS TO WIN:

2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4
6 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 6
8 - 8 - 8 - 8
10 - 10 -10

You have a total of 5 tiers with this block series. Soon as you make a profit in any tier, start the tier over again. If you lose a tier ... go to the next tier. Example: If you are on tier 3 and your profit on this tier covers the losses on tier 2 ... then go back to tier 2 and make enough profit to cover losses from tier 1. So you are moving up and down tiers if needed until the series shows a profit. Don't worry if you don't understand it at this time. You will understand it after a few plays.

I am using the limited progression for a couple of reasons: it reduces total risk in a series plus it will give some data on limited progression for possible use with other systems.

START DATE: May 1 ... this will give us some time to establish ERA stats for this season.

RicardoDaVinci · Apr 8, 2006

tony1 said:
MLB ROAD SYSTEM
I have mentioned on other posts concerning a mlb road system that I was considering. This system is similar to my nba road system but with a different slant. The idea is to bet against a tired road team on a 6 game or more road trip. We will bet only up to the last 3 games of a series. The series ends with a cover. I am experimenting with this idea on this basis: my success with the NBA road system (halves). I would like to use this forum to document this idea. You can just follow along or play it ... the decision is yours because I can not recommend it at this time due to no research data. We are using the effect of a long road series plus the below criteria to give an extra edge. The main difference with the MLB road system is that we are making an attempt to avoid the top starting pitchers for road teams in each league.

RULES:
1. Bet against the road team on a 6 game road trip or more.
2. Bet only the last three games of the road trip. Also, the last 3 games of the road trip must be against the same road team.
3. Use the moneyline when the odds are -125 or better. If not available, use the run line with the same criteria.
4. The first bet is to win one unit, if it does not cover, double bet plus juice for 2nd bet and the same for the 3rd bet. If this fails ... we will use a limited progression plan as illustrated below.
5. Eliminate the road series when the road team's pitcher is among the top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA for at least two of the three games but preferring three of three(see mlb website for proabable pitchers and usa today/sagarin for ERA stats).
6. Usually we will not start more than 3 new series per day. If we have more than 3 new series, we will continue to eliminate series with the following criteria. Eliminate road series when the road team pitchers are among the top 30 in ERA for at least two of the three games but preferring three of three.
7. At this point, we will play all new series even if we have more than 3 new series.
8. Rain-outs: If one of the games is a rain-out, we will make it a two game series. 1st and 2nd games are a rain-out, the series is cancelled. 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd games are a rain-outs, series is considered a one unit loss.

LIMITED PROGRESSION: Goes into effect after 3 losses in a series. You are moving from one series to the next when a cover is made until you show a profit for the series. This is OPTIONAL if you prefer not to use limited progression.

LIMITED PROGRESSION ... UNITS TO WIN:

2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4
6 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 6
8 - 8 - 8 - 8
10 - 10 -10

You have a total of 5 tiers with this block series. Soon as you make a profit in any tier, start the tier over again. If you lose a tier ... go to the next tier. Example: If you are on tier 3 and your profit on this tier covers the losses on tier 2 ... then go back to tier 2 and make enough profit to cover losses from tier 1. So you are moving up and down tiers if needed until the series shows a profit. Don't worry if you don't understand it at this time. You will understand it after a few plays.

I am using the limited progression for a couple of reasons: it reduces total risk in a series plus it will give some data on limited progression for possible use with other systems.

START DATE: May 1 ... this will give us some time to establish ERA stats for this season.

I'm going to have to try to follow along for a bit. I understand this mostly, but you lost me a little bit when you went to "after a third loss and Lim progression betting". Assuming you're moving to another series after a series loss: Say you start 3 series one day, but you have had a series loss already, which series do you move this into, or am I understanding this all wrong? I'll pick this up quickly, so like I said, I'll just follow for a bit.

It sounds great and can't wait to try it!

Thanks and good luck to you.........Ricardo

PS-If you need any help, I'd be more than happy to lend a hand!

RicardoDaVinci · Apr 8, 2006

Tony, did you try going back on part of the season last year to see how this might have worked out? I know it wouldn't be exact, but you could probably get some kind of an idea even if it were for a short while.

Ricardo

tony1 · Apr 9, 2006

Ricardo Da Vinci said:
Tony, did you try going back on part of the season last year to see how this might have worked out? I know it wouldn't be exact, but you could probably get some kind of an idea even if it were for a short while.

Ricardo

RESEARCHING ONLY ROAD TRIPS WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT BUT RESEARCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE ERA OF THE STARTING PITCHERS ROAD TEAMS AT THE TIME OF THE ROAD TRIP WOULD BE DIFFICULT.

RicardoDaVinci · Apr 10, 2006

tony1 said:
RESEARCHING ONLY ROAD TRIPS WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT BUT RESEARCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE ERA OF THE STARTING PITCHERS ROAD TEAMS AT THE TIME OF THE ROAD TRIP WOULD BE DIFFICULT.

I hear you on that. Like I said before, if you need any help with anything, just let me know, I'll be on board for the long haul ALLLLL season. Hopefully I won't screw myself like I did tonight in your NBA system, lol. That's what I get for falling asleep!

Thanks again Tony and good luck to you........Ricardo

FullyEclipsed · Apr 10, 2006

Hey tony.

As far as my post of bringing your name up I have to give credit where it is due. I followed your NBA system for a good part of the year and to me it made sense to collect as much data as possible to play a system rather than making bets day in and day out. (NBA and MLB)

I like this idea as well Tony. If I hadn't been on the computer for the last several and several days collecting data I would have seen that you posted this. I have actually been amazed that this wasn't a system already in place and posted here. So I have been crunching like crazy.

I wish you all the best luck in the world as I can see that we will be on a lot of the same series. I just have a bit of different criteria to have a little more action.

tony1 · Apr 10, 2006

FullyEclipsed said:
Hey tony.

As far as my post of bringing your name up I have to give credit where it is due. I followed your NBA system for a good part of the year and to me it made sense to collect as much data as possible to play a system rather than making bets day in and day out. (NBA and MLB)

I like this idea as well Tony. If I hadn't been on the computer for the last several and several days collecting data I would have seen that you posted this. I have actually been amazed that this wasn't a system already in place and posted here. So I have been crunching like crazy.

I wish you all the best luck in the world as I can see that we will be on a lot of the same series. I just have a bit of different criteria to have a little more action.

FullyEclipsed,

Thanks for your comments! I realize that the NBA and the MLB is quite different especially when you have emphasis on the starting pitchers.

Researching my idea would not be possible because of the ERA with starting pitchers at the time of the selected road series but with your permission I would like to mention your research numbers of all series of 3 games and more played between 2002 and 2005. These numbers are outstanding and are very similar to my research with the NBA.

HERE ARE THE RESEARCH NUMBERS MENTIONED BY FULLY ECLIPSED:

2002-2005
NL
1550 Home Series of 3 Games or more
1406 where the home team won at least 1 game
90.7%

2002-2005
AL
1362 Home Series of 3 games or more
1227 where the home team won at least 1 game
90%

Important: These numbers include all series of 3 games and more with a 90% winning percentage.

If these numbers hold true along with my criteria of our MLB road system, the numbers should improve more! Plus...... less than 1 series out of 10 will go into limited progression if you continue with it past the 3rd game.

Consider this: By playing the last three games of a road series of 6 games and more and our attempt to eliminate the top pitchers in each league with these road teams, the percentages should improve even more.A tired road team minus top pitchers in each league. I like the possiblites here!!!

Also, even with the start date of May 1, we should have plenty action, more series than the NBA.

COMMENTS WELCOMED ......

FullyEclipsed · Apr 10, 2006

Tony1,

I am happy to see that my research has proven to be of value to someone else other than me. There can never be enough good people working towards the same goal.

I want to make one comment about the numbers though. I read in your post that if a series has a game that is postponed after 2 games and the home team hasn't won that you will take that as a loss. The numbers that I put together is finding the make-up game and that was the result of the series.

I can say that maybe in the long run it might be better to just call it after the 2 games. That was actually a question that somebody had in my thread and I am still up in the air about it. I guess for me what will determine it is when they schedule the next game for.

And also I have found some pretty good trends with teams through the 4 seasons that I may go ahead and take the time and post in my thread. With the overall % at 90% you will see that there are a few teams that through the 4 years are really dragging this percentage down.

Good luck Tony1

CTP · Apr 10, 2006

Sounds good enough. What are you going to do with the ML once you start the series? Say first guy is -125 than the second goes to -180? Just a question.

RUSS · Apr 10, 2006

Best of Luck

tony1 · Apr 10, 2006

CTP said:
Sounds good enough. What are you going to do with the ML once you start the series? Say first guy is -125 than the second goes to -180? Just a question.

Excellent question! This is one of the main points in looking at this idea that I had to consider. See rule #3 of initial post of this thread. If the moneyline is not available with -125 or less, usually the run line will be. The -125 odds is not set in stone, we will consider going a little higher if needed.

RicardoDaVinci · Apr 10, 2006

To Tony and FullyEclipsed!

FullyEclipsed said:
Tony1,

I am happy to see that my research has proven to be of value to someone else other than me. There can never be enough good people working towards the same goal.

I want to make one comment about the numbers though. I read in your post that if a series has a game that is postponed after 2 games and the home team hasn't won that you will take that as a loss. The numbers that I put together is finding the make-up game and that was the result of the series.

I can say that maybe in the long run it might be better to just call it after the 2 games. That was actually a question that somebody had in my thread and I am still up in the air about it. I guess for me what will determine it is when they schedule the next game for.

And also I have found some pretty good trends with teams through the 4 seasons that I may go ahead and take the time and post in my thread. With the overall % at 90% you will see that there are a few teams that through the 4 years are really dragging this percentage down.

Good luck Tony1

Guys, in reference to your 3rd game rainout dilema, how about meeting in the middle?

What I mean by this is if the 3rd game gets rained out, play the make-up game for the amount of units you are down in that series for a break-even kind of thing. This way, if you're down 3.3 units, bet 3.3 instead of 4.4 or something like that. You could end the series after that and not get hammered if you lose, but break even with a win. Plus, you wouldn't be risking TOO much possibly going against the system if it's not fitting the criteria? Let me know what you think?

Thanks and good luck to you and all............Ricardo

tony1 · Apr 10, 2006

IN REFERENCE TO RAIN-OUTS:
Rain-outs will not be a major problem.
My initial post states that a series is cancelled if the the 1st and 2nd games are cancelled. This does not include doubleheaders played within the road trip. In other words, if we can get two games in, the series will count as a two game series. Make-up games at a later date will defeat the purpose of the Road System. Again, this is no big deal. The most we can lose for a series that is postponed is only 1 unit.

Thanks!

WorldNumberOne · Apr 10, 2006

if you like laying about 1500 bucks to win 100 when you get to game 4 , then have at it.

and when you change mid series with what you are asking your team do, as in win game 1 outright , win game 2 by 2 because your line went up and so on , you are on a bankroll suicide mission.

good luck with it .

not rooting against you by any means..

you will need about a 95 % win percentage for this to make money.

WorldNumberOne · Apr 10, 2006

in my opinion your time would be better served looking for dogs to win a game out of a series.

much less risk to get to your goal of winning 1 unit per series.

road teams have won a game in just about as many series so far as the home team this year .

again , good luck ..

tony1 · Apr 10, 2006

World Number One said:
if you like laying about 1500 bucks to win 100 when you get to game 4 , then have at it.

and when you change mid series with what you are asking your team do, as in win game 1 outright , win game 2 by 2 because your line went up and so on , you are on a bankroll suicide mission.

good luck with it .

not rooting against you by any means..

you will need about a 95 % win percentage for this to make money.

GO AHEAD WORLD NUMBER ONE....
I have heard this kind of talk for the last 4 years with my experience with the road system. I have won over 100 units this year and over 400 units for the last 4 years. I have mentioned many times the mindset that you need to play the road system and it has paid-off quite well for me.

First .... you did not read my initial post!!! YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM....THERE IS NO 4TH GAME!!! I AM USING LIMITED PROGRESSION TO REDUCE THE TOTAL RISK WITH THE BASEBALL SYSTEM.

ALSO as mentioned in the initial post.... I am not asking you or anybody to play this system.... I'm not even recommending it.

QUESTION:????
Will the baseball road system work as well as the nba system? .... Not sure but I guess we will find out!

WorldNumberOne · Apr 10, 2006

my post had nothing to do with your nba system .. only baseball .

the multiplier of -125 and then possibly needing your team to win by 2 will effect your bottom line a lot..

again , good luck . i wish you well .

and i never felt like you were asking me to do anything.

tony1 · Apr 10, 2006

Looking Over The Baseball Threads, I See Several Others Are Starting Chase Systems For Mlb.

It Looks As Several Are Taking My Nba Road System (halves) Plan And Are Applying To Mlb.

They Are Not Exactly Like My Idea But Similar, Maybe There Is Enough Of Type Information Out There Already.

BJordan05 · Apr 10, 2006

tony1 said:
Looking Over The Baseball Threads, I See Several Others Are Starting Chase Systems For Mlb.

Works okay in NHL too.. if you refer to marky mark's thread

WorldNumberOne · Apr 10, 2006

tony, you will see dozens of doubling up type threads or progression threads during baseball season .

i'm not bashing you or your idea at all. just saying tread lightly.

i have looked for systems similar to these for years.

their is no holy grail .

i think the only way to play progression in baseball is to look at underdogs.

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