Question for Bigshot,Jman,Fish,Dub,SSI,TN,OMT,EGO,C-lo,D1,Waz etc...

CHOPTALK · Apr 9, 2006

Do you ever make your bets and just have a feeling thats unexplainable knowing that you are going to have a good or a bad day regardless of the strength of you plays?

This is something that I have been noticing for years. It has nothing to do with the strength or weekness of your card. You could have 5 great plays according to the way you cap, but sometimes that bad feeling creeps up and something is just not right. You could have 3 average plays and all of a sudden you get that good feeling and somehow end up 3-0. You just get that good or bad feeling. For me that feeling is so accurate its almost scary.

I hope I am explaining this in a way that people can understand what im trying to say.

CHOPTALK · Apr 9, 2006

This question is open to anyone who caps there own games in any sport.

BIGSHOTMAXXX · Apr 9, 2006

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes....I know exactly how you feel. ESPECIALLY AFTER A REALLY SUCCESSFUL DAY, AND DEFINATELY AFTER TWO GOOD DAYS IN A ROW!! I have never had the courage to fade myself although it is so obvious after going 70-80% over a # of plays that you should do just that. I would have to say that I get the feeling ALOT when playing totals...which only account for about 10-15% of my plays...but there have been COUNTLESS times when immediately after i enter a over play, for example, I know its an automatic loser, but i do it anyway...thats pretty weird.

Dude, I hope no one ever asks me how i cap plays cause they would probablly never follow a play of mine ever again...but as goofy as it may sound I have a (for total lack of a better example) spider sense, and when i look at a play it "looks" back at me, I know thats my top play of the day...almost as if the play is highlighted for my eyes only....

But there are days when I look at a card and nothing "looks" back and I lose all confidence in myself and it could last as long as 3-4 days and i enter plays knowing they are for sure losers...but i play em anyway...f-ing weirdest thing in my life man...lol.

Anyway, to answer your question, push through these down times cause all of a sudden, things will "just make sense" again, and then it gets really scarey...there are times when you KNOW you are gonna win (something like you were doing in spring training) and its almost as if you know you have to go through the losing streak in order to reach the winners...and then you go on a huge 30 or 40 unit run for a week to 10 days and the misery starts over again til the next winning spree....exhausted just thinking about it, but you are not alone man, capping games is not for the faint of hearted and breaks are SOOOO IMPORTANT!!!!!!!! Hang in there man, and it may very well be me asking you to help with my confidence level this time next week...but like I always say..."What a difference a day makes"...

Your mojo is just taking a break and it will be back soon, stronger than ever...hang in there!!

BSM

P.S.- we are all doing shitty.

CHOPTALK · Apr 9, 2006

ACE-ACE, KRUSER. Is it just me or do others get this feeling?

BIGSHOTMAXXX · Apr 9, 2006

btw, hope you feel better and by the looks at your card tomorrow, i think you will!!

CHOPTALK · Apr 9, 2006

BIGSHOTMAXXX said:
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes....I know exactly how you feel. ESPECIALLY AFTER A REALLY SUCCESSFUL DAY, AND DEFINATELY AFTER TWO GOOD DAYS IN A ROW!! I have never had the courage to fade myself although it is so obvious after going 70-80% over a # of plays that you should do just that. I would have to say that I get the feeling ALOT when playing totals...which only account for about 10-15% of my plays...but there have been COUNTLESS times when immediately after i enter a over play, for example, I know its an automatic loser, but i do it anyway...thats pretty weird.

Dude, I hope no one ever asks me how i cap plays cause they would probablly never follow a play of mine ever again...but as goofy as it may sound I have a (for total lack of a better example) spider sense, and when i look at a play it "looks" back at me, I know thats my top play of the day...almost as if the play is highlighted for my eyes only....

But there are days when I look at a card and nothing "looks" back and I lose all confidence in myself and it could last as long as 3-4 days and i enter plays knowing they are for sure losers...but i play em anyway...f-ing weirdest thing in my life man...lol.

Anyway, to answer your question, push through these down times cause all of a sudden, things will "just make sense" again, and then it gets really scarey...there are times when you KNOW you are gonna win (something like you were doing in spring training) and its almost as if you know you have to go through the losing streak in order to reach the winners...and then you go on a huge 30 or 40 unit run for a week to 10 days and the misery starts over again til the next winning spree....exhausted just thinking about it, but you are not alone man, capping games is not for the faint of hearted and breaks are SOOOO IMPORTANT!!!!!!!! Hang in there man, and it may very well be me asking you to help with my confidence level this time next week...but like I always say..."What a difference a day makes"...

Your mojo is just taking a break and it will be back soon, stronger than ever...hang in there!!

BSM

P.S.- we are all doing shitty.

I agree with every last word you said except for the fadeing yourself part.

Like I said earlier, it has nothing to do with the strength of the plays on paper. I mean I could have a play thats as solid fundamentaly as you can get but that feeling creeps in and for some reason that feeling is right so often its almost freaky!!!!
It has nothing to do with being hot or cold.

Here is an example. I started off the baseball season up over 12 units. The next day when the card came out I found some very solid plays that had every eliment that you could ever want for good plays but for some reason that bad feeling got ahold of me, and this is while I was on a roll. I had that bad feeling the next 2 days and had another 2 bad days.

Right now that good feeling just took over. I dont know what it is but whenever I feel that way everything always seems to go flawlessly. I cant explain it. Most of you probably think im going off the deep end just reading this.:lolBIG:

I would be very interested lots of thoughts on this.

BIGSHOTMAXXX · Apr 9, 2006

Ok, I had a long conversation with my brother about this...one time last year I was deep into capping and had won like 7 or 8 xxx plays in a row and was up like 30 units, and i looked at the card for that day and felt like Popeye, when his spinach power runs out...thats when I thought of fading myself and my brother convinced me of NEVER doing that...I believe him, trust him and never have, and don't ever plan to, although sometimes I want to...jeez, hope that makes sense...lol.

CHOPTALK · Apr 9, 2006

BIGSHOTMAXXX said:
Ok, I had a long conversation with my brother about this...one time last year I was deep into capping and had won like 7 or 8 xxx plays in a row and was up like 30 units, and i looked at the card for that day and felt like Popeye, when his spinach power runs out...thats when I thought of fading myself and my brother convinced me of NEVER doing that...I believe him, trust him and never have, and don't ever plan to, although sometimes I want to...jeez, hope that makes sense...lol.

I understand where you are comming from. Maybe no one else does but I do.:lolBIG:

BIGSHOTMAXXX · Apr 9, 2006

I am going to bed now, get some rest chop, all will be well tomorrow...I can't wait to read this thread tomorrow when I get up cause I think this thread will be very interesting and perhaps destined for the rx archives Hall of Fame...lol...damn, I am tired.....later!!

oldmanTED · Apr 9, 2006

Chop:

There have been some days when I've capped games and actually told others that I expected a sweep and it happens. But just the same, I have had what I feel are solid cards go down the drain, normally with some tough losses but sometimes blowouts. There is rarely a day when I feel badly about an entire card. Perhaps the power of positive thinking or self confidence. That being said, often times after making a play as a game draws closer, the confidence I had begins to wane as I think more about the details. Many times in those cases, I pull off and pay the juice. In those cases, I have ended up saving far more then I would have won. Call it listening to your inner self and then acting on your thoughts. Believe we all have that little voice in our heads but often are uncertain what action to take.

~DaOnEaNdOnLy777~ · Apr 9, 2006

Chop...I 100% most definetly know exactly what "feeling" you're talking about bro! Some days I come up with cards that have 2-3 or more really solid plays in them & yet something about THE CARD AS A WHOLE just doesn't feel right when I look at it. That's the important part to this bad/good vibe or feeling thing I think. It's how your plays look as a group and not individually that determines it & sometimes that's hard as f*ck to realize because with 3 strong plays going off you're thinking to yourself there should be no doubting it and yet, ya do! And of course what happens?? Yup, a bad break here & a blown save there and before you know it you're screwed!

ucking: I've been there many a times. :nohead: Frickin love it on days when it works out just the opposite though, but sadly those good times somehow always end up taking a backseat to the bad ones in the end!

CHOPTALK · Apr 9, 2006

Thanks OMT and D1

Dubpoet · Apr 9, 2006

Yes, there is usually one game a day I lay off even though I like it. And there is usually one game I bet from situation only, like a good team that loses 2 in a row. Today its the CWS I am betting and the A's I'm laying off of.

One game I bet with no reasoning is Under 8 in Minny.

Too early to hit these unders especially in cleveland.

winbet · Apr 9, 2006

What happens to and how you feel about an outcome is immaterial, the important feel you should get used to is the one when you know your chancing your arm or betting a favourite you know is too skinny. :drink:

Waz · Apr 9, 2006

Chop-

I agree with, but probably on a smaller scale. I wouldn't say that I usually feel bad about an entire card, but there always those games that look so good on paper, but you just know in the bottom of your heart that it won't come in. I am trying to weed those games out and stay away where possible. One example was yesterday, when I had San Diego capped to be one of the best games of the day. However, I just didn't feel like Brazelton was going to pitch that well, and I thought Colorado was due to break out. I didn't want to go against my spreadsheet totally and pick Colorado, but at least I didn't bet San Diego. The longer you do this, I would say the better you will be able to pick these type of games out. What do others think?

levistep · Apr 9, 2006

I don't think so. You remember the rare occasion that your feelings ostensibly affected the outcome, but you forget the other times where your feelings didn't do anything.

C-LO · Apr 9, 2006

Absolutely Brotha. Especially when I have won the last game of the night on a comeback or erroe or something. I know if I capp my games then im cooked. I also get that feeling when I have all my games capped then I have a small play like no score first inning of a game and it scores on a walk or some crap. I think we al have it! You are picking great in my opinion, you keep the same system as I know you will and they will be singing your name by years end!!!!!!! I feel great about todays card for some reason. I think im more comfortable betting dogs then favs. You dont have to worry as much, its weird! GL bro!

RicardoDaVinci · Apr 9, 2006

All I can tell you is that this "feeling" goes beyond just capping games. I did mostly College basketball this year and some NBA, but I bet all kinds of plays I get from other people. All I can say is when I wake up in the morning, I can tell you if it's going to be a bad day or a good day before I even look at my plays! I just know because I feel it. For a while I thought it was the mood I was in, but in time, I knew!

GOOD LUCK TO ALL, AND TO ALL A CASH NIGHT!!!!:money:

Ricardo

Journeyman · Apr 9, 2006

I think there are times when you can 'feel it'....and days when you just know it's not going to be bad....I have always had a harder time with sunday games in baseball....and I'm conviced its more than coincidence.