How do you win betting baseball?

gynecologist · Apr 9, 2006

Hello,

This has been my 1st year betting baseball full-time,I have
always bet on Basketball and Football but baseball never got into
betting it. Well anyway so far I have been getting killed. I started out pretty good, but the last 3 days have been dreadful? Losing alot
of games by 1 run. I am very knowledgeable when it comes to
baseball, just not betting it I guess.

Whats going on? Anyone here have any tips? I feel lost. I dont
want to give up,

smartz · Apr 9, 2006

hehe exact same situation here my man.

AngleBroom · Apr 9, 2006

Hey bro, I think it's wise to let them play a few weeks and observe. You'll start to form a list of don't play teams, and a list of teams you watch the rotation on and can't wait for the next pitcher. I have a few don't play teams already. If you play Houston, you'd lose your ass most likely.(lose when supposed to win, win when supposed to lose) Give them a couple weeks and use the data from databases and with your handicapping abilities you'll win. In the meantime, NBA playoffs are around the corner. Good Luck

Christian · Apr 9, 2006

the first few weeks of MLB is no different than the first few weeks of the NBA, NHL or NFL...

sure, there are some decent value plays on some underdogs and a few good plays here and there...

but take it easy, have patience...let the first few weeks play itself out...

there's NO WAY to handicap the first few weeks of the season in ANY sport. it's all about "out-guessing" the public.

and that is EXACTLY what it is....GUESSING.

don't get me wrong...it is possible to make money early in the season...you just have to be a better "guesser" (for lack of a better term) than the general public...

but there are NO statistical handicapping techniques that you can use to give yourself an edge early on in the season....in ANY season...in ANY sport...

you just have to let the games be played and after, say, 8-10 games are in the can....

THEN.....

you can start handicapping the season using statistics...

in the meantime, just have some patience, let each team get a few games under their belts and then start your handicapping...

in another week or two, i'll post an excellent formula for assessing a team's pitching/defensive stats for an upcoming game...

i learned it from a book i read by bob mccune a few years back and to this day, it is still the best technique i've ever learned.

if you're interested and take the time to learn it, it WILL make you money...

there's no point in posting it now, the season is much too early. have some patience buddy, and whatever you decide to do....good luck!

gynecologist · Apr 9, 2006

Thanks guys, Wow what a solid group of guys!! I appreciate all of the
feedback. Luckily I have been doing great in the NBA last couple of
weeks have gone 15-2 +29 units. It is in the tracker threads, but
baseball has gotten alot of my profits.

I think you guys are right about patience and letting the season
play out. I think I am just going to play less games and see if
I can find an edge.

Thanks again everyone!! Thanks for your time!!

Christian · Apr 9, 2006

the best thing about baseball is that it's almost 100% statistical (the handicapping, i mean)

there are very few subjective factors that come into play, as opposed to, say, the NFL (i.e. motivation)

once the season is a few weeks under way....

start handicapping each team's CURRENT performance (i.e. last 8-10 games, broken down into both HOME and AWAY value AND both vs. R and L-handed pitchers...depending on who their upcoming opposing starting pitcher is)...

look at their Runs per 9 innings stats, their batting avg. etc. etc...

then look at each team's pitching/defensive stats....

look at each pitcher's last 3-5 outings....look at how many innings he pitched and his ERA over that span...

then, factor that together with that team's bullpen ERA and the expected number of innings they'll pitch and add that to their avg. UNEARNED runs per game...

that is how you can assess a PITCHING/DEFENSIVE value...

from this you can estimate each team's OFFENSIVE and DEFENSIVE stats and can how they match-up...

then, of course, compare the posted odds (moneylines) and look for value...

like i said, i'll go into more detail in a few more weeks, about how i find pitching/defensive values in an upcoming game...but you get the idea. good luck!

winbet · Apr 9, 2006

gynecologist said:
Hello,

This has been my 1st year betting baseball full-time,I have
always bet on Basketball and Football but baseball never got into
betting it. Well anyway so far I have been getting killed. I started out pretty good, but the last 3 days have been dreadful? Losing alot
of games by 1 run. I am very knowledgeable when it comes to
baseball, just not betting it I guess.

Whats going on? Anyone here have any tips? I feel lost. I dont
want to give up,

You got it the wrong way round, have no knowledge of Baseball and plenty in betting.:drink:

gynecologist · Apr 9, 2006

winbet said:
You got it the wrong way round, have no knowledge of Baseball and plenty in betting.:drink:

Before this season I probably made about 12 bets on baseball
lifetime. And 9 of those were in the playoffs.

FairWarning · Apr 9, 2006

I just bet the streaks early (on teams w/ >3 wins and against teams with >3 losing streaks). A few teams always slip through the cracks early, those are your moneymakers.

charliepeete · Apr 9, 2006

same way i win bbasketball... follow gyno,fish,etc....

baseball bucx... done etc.. good lcuk

uppy:

newb411breaker19 · Apr 9, 2006

christian, I'll be waiting to see that Bob mccune formula. I'm very interested

firstlady · Apr 9, 2006

Christian

Hi, Bob Mccune has a few books can you tell me which one that you are refering too. Thanks:thumbsup2:

Doug · Apr 9, 2006

Christian: OT: How are you doing with US Sportsbook ?

Christian · Apr 9, 2006

Doug said:
Christian: OT: How are you doing with US Sportsbook ?

ha ha, it's funny you should ask...

literally, as i'm writing this i'm on the chat window with their CS agent...

i just checked my excel sheet...in the last 22 days i've profited $928.90!!!!

roughly $42/day!!!

there were a few set-backs....i've had a couple dog winners in there and had to let it all ride the next day...luckily, most of the time they lost the next day so i was able to re-up and all i really did was lose a day's time.

they have a new policy there now. now, you can deposit between $100 AND $300 and still get a matching 100% freeplay...

and i got greedy the first day...i deposited $300 to get the $300 FP...sure enough, the dog won...i was pissed! i had to risk something $1,000 the next day!!! luckily, it lost. so now i just stick with depositing $100 at a time, never more.

anyway, thanks again for the tip! i'll take a free $42/day for as long as it lasts...

how's your MLB going so far?

it never ceases to amaze me at how many plays most people have early on in the season!!! the season isn't even 10 games old and some people already have 50+ wagers in!!! that's waaaaaaaay too much like "gambling" if you ask me. good luck!

beefdiesel · Apr 9, 2006

I actually refuse to watch or wager on the NBA. I bet baseball last year for the first time, and won consistently by betting on only one game per day. I will start betting everyday in a couple of weeks when the pitchers get into better shape.

:money:

Christian · Apr 9, 2006

beefdiesel said:
....and won consistently by betting on only one game per day....

well, whatever works for you....

but i promise you, there will be PLENTY of days...in fact, more often times than not....there will a lot more great plays on the board this MLB season than just 1 in any given day!

and there will be plenty of days when a bettor can easily find a good 6 or 8 plays in a day...those days will come, trust me.

i've said this a million times on here...but when you set arbitrary limits for yourself (i.e. only 1 play per day, never lay more than -160, etc. etc.)...

you're not maximizing your potential profits!

Doug · Apr 9, 2006

Christian: I hate to hijack this thread, but saw you post in it. I'm doing OK with bases and have tons of plays, but many are small. I like overs early on, I've been parlaying select road dogs to over ( esp over 9.5), 1st 5 inning lines, Pinny second chance, so many options.

A lot of plays are OK if you get good lines, IMO. I plan to cut back, but books are also vulnerable early on. You should be able to play almost juice free, as in a fav price of -130 best around, and +128 if you want the dog, that sort of margin.

Good Luck,

Christian · Apr 9, 2006

i don't see it as hijacking the thread...

this thread is about winning in baseball, and that's what we're talking about now

i understand your point about betting with a strategy early in the season, that's one thing...

but i was talking more about some of the plays i've seen posted on here...it seems people are just so anxious to have MLB action that they'll bet just about anything! including some RX posters who usually have very well thought-out analysis on their games/posts...

then, after they end up down a bunch of units in a week, they're scratching their heads wondering what happened!

but this is my first MLB season on this website, so maybe that's how it is all the time...it just seemed odd to me.

you're definitely right about good line value early on...especially utilizing the exchanges like mansion and matchbook. this will be my first full MLB season utilizing those books, and i'd recommend them to anyone.

i know it gets repetitive answering the same question that seems to pop up every single day on here..."what's the best MLB books to use"....

but i try to answer those posts every chance i get....i really hope those sites continue to grow in popularity and we see those as the future of this industry.