hi bznofx,
i would like to ask you a sincere question. i'm curious as to how you determine which alternative over/under to take? as both totals were shown at 8.5 and 9.5 respectively as the regular line. the only logical conjecture i can come up with is that you have determined that 8 and 10 ARE NOT key numbers in mlb, can you verify this is the case?
also, i'm curious as to how you determine your proper unit bet size per individual play. i realize they're not an accurate current percentage of your bankroll, however the variation in unit size between plays indicate that you obviously favor certain plays over others. how do you determine which play should be weighted more unit-wise? kelly? fractional-kelly? optimal risk threshold? optimal minimal vig? size of the edge of the edge you believe you have over the book's line?
i would like to ask you a sincere question. i'm curious as to how you determine which alternative over/under to take? as both totals were shown at 8.5 and 9.5 respectively as the regular line. the only logical conjecture i can come up with is that you have determined that 8 and 10 ARE NOT key numbers in mlb, can you verify this is the case?
also, i'm curious as to how you determine your proper unit bet size per individual play. i realize they're not an accurate current percentage of your bankroll, however the variation in unit size between plays indicate that you obviously favor certain plays over others. how do you determine which play should be weighted more unit-wise? kelly? fractional-kelly? optimal risk threshold? optimal minimal vig? size of the edge of the edge you believe you have over the book's line?
ok, i will actually answer this for real:
He's laying enough to win a WHOLE number of units on the favs, and playing a WHOLE number of units to win whatever on the dogs.
Therefore: XXXXXX -106 ----------> 2'12 UNITS ( to win exactly 2 units)
XXXXX2 +112 ----------> 2 UNITS ( to win 2'24 units, or lose 2)
He's laying enough to win a WHOLE number of units on the favs, and playing a WHOLE number of units to win whatever on the dogs.
Therefore: XXXXXX -106 ----------> 2'12 UNITS ( to win exactly 2 units)
XXXXX2 +112 ----------> 2 UNITS ( to win 2'24 units, or lose 2)
dr.dr,
i took the alternate total for the Chi./Det game because i had it projected as an o/u of 8. I took the +116 for the UNDER 8 because i was playing it based on value. as for my units...i go off of the value of that particular game. i also "play to win" on favorties and "risk" on underdogs. My units are roughly 3 times more than my original bankroll. so a 3 unit play is really a 1 unit play. i just dont want to adjust to my current bankroll because things will get mixed up. It will come off looking like "bad money management", but i am playing for fun (money wise) and will not be in ANY kind of financial trouble of lose my whole bankroll.
like i always say....the money part comes second to my love for CREATING lines. i hope to become an oddsmaker rather than a professional gambler after i get my degree.
i took the alternate total for the Chi./Det game because i had it projected as an o/u of 8. I took the +116 for the UNDER 8 because i was playing it based on value. as for my units...i go off of the value of that particular game. i also "play to win" on favorties and "risk" on underdogs. My units are roughly 3 times more than my original bankroll. so a 3 unit play is really a 1 unit play. i just dont want to adjust to my current bankroll because things will get mixed up. It will come off looking like "bad money management", but i am playing for fun (money wise) and will not be in ANY kind of financial trouble of lose my whole bankroll.
like i always say....the money part comes second to my love for CREATING lines. i hope to become an oddsmaker rather than a professional gambler after i get my degree.
