Everyone on the Pirates this morning......RUN!

jwblue · Apr 10, 2006

I have no idea why everyone is on the Pirates this morning. I am taking the Dodgers.

Everyone seems to be in love with Zach Duke. Not sure why. It is not uncommon for left handers to come into the league and have success only to flame out after everyone has seen them. He was bombed in spring training.

Based on ability alone, Odalis Perez is the better pitcher. The Dodgers hit left handers pretty well. If this game was in August, the Dodgers would be a slight favorite. For value bettors, the Dodgers are clearly the side to take.

This is the PIRATES we are talking about folks.

If anyone has Mansion Exchange, there is an offer for the Pirates for -129.

IS

Insiders · Apr 10, 2006

IS

Wait until they drive the number (even) higher ! As i thought it was HUGE price as is.

AngleBroom · Apr 10, 2006

I'm on the Dodgers too. I'm a superstitious player in a way, I hate going against streaks such as the Dodgers have with W,L,W,L,W........etc. To fill in the blank today is a Pirate's win.

Fishhead · Apr 10, 2006

Doubleheader yesterday for LA, plus travel.

Tough spot.

The_Man · Apr 10, 2006

agree laying -135 on anyone is to high of juice nevermind the awful pittsburgh pirates. good value to pick up the dodgers here at +127 imo and will be on them for a u.

jwblue · Apr 10, 2006

Fishhead said:
Doubleheader yesterday for LA, plus travel.

Tough spot.

Sorry Fish. I strongly disagree taking this angle. It is the most overrated reason to fade a team. These guys are profesional athletes. They are machines. They don't fatigue as much as everyone thinks. The Dodgers did not play the same lineup for both games yesterday. It is still early in the season.

The Pirates played yesterday in Cincinnati.

IS

HPark1 · Apr 10, 2006

InSpades said:
I have no idea why everyone is on the Pirates this morning. I am taking the Dodgers.

Everyone seems to be in love with Zach Duke. Not sure why. It is not uncommon for left handers to come into the league and have success only to flame out after everyone has seen them. He was bombed in spring training.

Based on ability alone, Odalis Perez is the better pitcher. The Dodgers hit left handers pretty well. If this game was in August, the Dodgers would be a slight favorite. For value bettors, the Dodgers are clearly the side to take.

This is the PIRATES we are talking about folks.

If anyone has Mansion Exchange, there is an offer for the Pirates for -129.

IS

Just because the majority of bettors here at the RX like Pittsburgh doesn't mean everyone is on them. If you look at Wagerline and Sportsinsights (about 3000 picks) you'll notice under 55% of the players are on Pittsburgh. When you match that up with the odds its just about right. In fact the Dodgers are getting slightly more action.

I've never understood making a play by just going against others with no valid reasoning, especially players at a forum who probably have a bit more skill than your average bettor.

There's no value on the Dodgers imo. Do you think a 1-6 Pittsburgh team is being overpriced against the mighty LA Dodgers?

And Duke has had good success all throughout his minor league career (in over 450 innings at all levels he has an era under 2.50). I don't envision this guy flaming out anytime soon.

jwblue · Apr 10, 2006

HPark1 said:
Just because the majority of bettors here at the RX like Pittsburgh doesn't mean everyone is on them. If you look at Wagerline and Sportsinsights (about 3000 picks) you'll notice under 55% of the players are on Pittsburgh. When you match that up with the odds its just about right. In fact the Dodgers are getting slightly more action.

I've never understood making a play by just going against others with no valid reasoning, especially players at a forum who probably have a bit more skill than your average bettor.

There's no value on the Dodgers imo. Do you think a 1-6 Pittsburgh team is being overpriced against the mighty LA Dodgers?

And Duke has had good success all throughout his minor league career (in over 450 innings at all levels he has an era under 2.50). I don't envision this guy flaming out anytime soon.

No valid reasoning? I gave plenty of reasons.

Better pitcher, better team.

I should have been more clear in saying that "everyone" means a lot of handicappers on the board. It is more a board consensus than a public consensus.

IS

HPark1 · Apr 10, 2006

InSpades said:
No valid reasoning? I gave plenty of reasons.

Better pitcher, better team.

I should have been more clear in saying that "everyone" means a lot of handicappers on the board. It is more a board consensus than a public consensus.

IS

Better pitcher and better team is up to interpretation I suppose. Odalis Perez has never been anything special as his career record in the majors stands at 52-51 (26-26 in his last 52 decisions). One good year in 2002 and thats about it. And remember his era stats look nice but pitching in Dodgers stadium will take .5/1 run every pitcher.

And don't know how much better they can be when Jose Cruz Jr. is batting third today.

jwblue · Apr 10, 2006

It is funny how we are all debating the side, when the Under is probably the best play.

IS

jammanxc · Apr 10, 2006

InSpades, it's funny how everytime you post one of these "everyone is on a xxxx team, fade" it usually turns out in your favor. :lolBIG:

Jacksorbetter+ · Apr 10, 2006

Fishhead said:
Doubleheader yesterday for LA, plus travel.

Tough spot.

Philly to Pittsburgh? That's not travel. What is that a 30 minute flight?

finite · Apr 10, 2006

Too tough a game for me. Does LA want to win first game vs Tracy. Some big bats are supposed to be resting for this game for Dodgers and most analysts are saying Perez has physical problems. The other side is laying juice with Pitt at home and I come up with none of the above. GL

CHOPTALK · Apr 10, 2006

Fishhead said:
Doubleheader yesterday for LA, plus travel.

Tough spot.

Bingo

CHOPTALK · Apr 10, 2006

InSpades said:
I have no idea why everyone is on the Pirates this morning. I am taking the Dodgers.

Everyone seems to be in love with Zach Duke. Not sure why. It is not uncommon for left handers to come into the league and have success only to flame out after everyone has seen them. He was bombed in spring training.

Based on ability alone, Odalis Perez is the better pitcher. The Dodgers hit left handers pretty well. If this game was in August, the Dodgers would be a slight favorite. For value bettors, the Dodgers are clearly the side to take.

This is the PIRATES we are talking about folks.

If anyone has Mansion Exchange, there is an offer for the Pirates for -129.

IS

Zach Duke is far from a fluke IS. I promise you there is no doubt in my mind he is going to win 200+ games in his career. Hes that good. I dont care about his spring.

mike0187 · Apr 10, 2006

Im with IS on this one. Laying -130 on the Pirates seems crazy to me right now. Duke may be good but can Pitt score any runs? One mistake may lead to a loss for Duke and Pitt.

Enough good handicappers to keep me away from LA, but nothing willl put me on Pittsburgh.

ElIguana · Apr 10, 2006

Still early in the game, but it looks like you nailed this one, Spades.

SBBC · Apr 10, 2006

Its in the third-------- tons of time left.

TOJayz · Apr 10, 2006

stupid Canadian piece of crap..bases loaded a chance to cut in the lead and its a DP.. way to go Bay...

PokerKingJim · Apr 10, 2006

I played the Dodgers. I dont see how in the world the Bucs should have even been favored in this game. Duke is going to be good but he alone is not worth laying this price. The Dodgers have beaten the Pirates something like 27 of 34 over the last few years. The Dodgers are obviously a better team this year. The reason the line favored the Bucs is because of the LA double header yesterday, Pit opening day, and Duke. But 2 of the 3 are artificial in my opinion.

Everyone on the Pirates this morning......RUN!

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