Would you lay 100 to win 1 ?

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

Of course you would if it was for a few hours and a virtual certainty to win, but how about on a baseball team ( Pitts) down 7-0 after 5 innings ?

That's no lock.

Pitts +6999
LAD -9999

Pinny must get complete one way action on those. Lay $15 to win a dime, or a dime to win $10.

A book could really get hurt on these.

Does anybody lay -9999 ?

nascarphenom · Apr 10, 2006

Doug said:
Of course you would if it was for a few hours and a virtual certainty to win, but how about on a baseball team ( Pitts) down 7-0 after 5 innings ?

That's no lock.

Pitts +6999
LAD -9999

Pinny must get complete one way action on those. Lay $15 to win a dime, or a dime to win $10.

A book could really get hurt on these.

Does anybody lay -9999 ?

id lay $10 on the underdog everynight

if its usually 70/1 or higher, i know it will pay off in the end

these complete meltdowns happens more than odds makers think....problem is, you have to be at your computer tracking these games every night....and not many people could do that

if i had a program to automatically bet $10 on every team that is down 5-7 runs after 5 innings with 70/1 odds, id gladly do it:money: :money:

Insiders · Apr 10, 2006

In a word............NO !

CHOPTALK · Apr 10, 2006

The juice on those bets are ridiculous. They are making a killing on those lines no matter how those games turn out longterm.

oldmanTED · Apr 10, 2006

1% return on that investment is a horrible risk take.

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
The juice on those bets are ridiculous. They are making a killing on those lines no matter how those games turn out longterm.

I disagree. That's a hold of .42%, much lower than a game at -105.

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

oldmanTED said:
1% return on that investment is a horrible risk take.

They aren't even making 1%, it has to be completely one sided betting.

CHOPTALK · Apr 10, 2006

Doug said:
I disagree. That's a hold of .42%, much lower than a game at -105.

Your going to have to explain that to me Doug. Not saying you are wrong but the spreads on those lines are ridiculous.

oldmanTED · Apr 10, 2006

Bridge Jumpers Delight:guillotin

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
Your going to have to explain that to me Doug. Not saying you are wrong but the spreads on those lines are ridiculous.

Use the calculator on Pinny's site, you'd have to risk $100.42 to return $100 by betting both lines.

winbet · Apr 10, 2006

When are posters on here going to start talking in terms of value instead of view. I know many professionals on Betfair who take 1.01 regularly, its all down to value, 1/100 about a 1/5000 shot for a grand 10 times a day soon adds up. How many Jokers do you see on here taking -200 on something that should EVENS and everyone says great pick :icon_conf

scarab · Apr 10, 2006

there was a great post about something like this a few weeks ago.....cricket match....couple of bettors laid $20K to win $200...they lost after a big come back...strangely nobody bet the underdog

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

winbet said:
When are posters on here going to start talking in terms of value instead of view. I know many professionals on Betfair who take 1.01 regularly, its all down to value, 1/100 about a 1/5000 shot for a grand 10 times a day soon adds up. How many Jokers do you see on here taking -200 on something that should EVENS and everyone says great pick

I think we are all saying a baseball team down 7 runs after 5 innings can come back and win often enough to make that 70-1 attractive, I play them.

I'd love to see some stats on it, if anybody has them.

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
The juice on those bets are ridiculous. They are making a killing on those lines no matter how those games turn out longterm.

You need a big spread on big ML's. You cant have -850, +830 type of lines, except on an exchange.

Pinny has the best lines on big spreads compared to any other book I've seen.

Think of what lines you'd hang Chop, if you were booking it.

CHOPTALK · Apr 10, 2006

Doug said:
You need a big spread on big ML's. You cant have -850, +830 type of lines, except on an exchange.

Pinny has the best lines on big spreads compared to any other book I've seen.

Think of what lines you'd hang Chop, if you were booking it.

If I was running the book, I would only list lines on the favorite, if anyone is dumb enough to bet on a -7000. More power to me.

Pittsburgh down 7-0 is worth at least +7000 or more. You can count the number of come backs that late in the game on one hand.

winbet · Apr 10, 2006

70/1 isnt value, it works out 7/1 them getting 7 runs in 4 innings even having 2 men on base in every inning.:drink:

Doug · Apr 10, 2006

It needs some research for sure, probably best to look for certain teams with bad relief pitching and good offense. If you knew each team's situation really well, you could do well with these, you don't have to bet ML as there exists a spread and totals as options also.

Dubpoet · Apr 10, 2006

I won 1 dollar on it, Yes!:money8:

trytrytry · Apr 10, 2006

no longer. I had my heart attack moment on the UConn first round game even when its an overlay its too hard to lay a huge number like that

peskypup · Apr 20, 2006

there have been some great disasters on Betfair from punters laying £50k to win £500.

A recent one was the one day international between the Aussies and South Africa, where the Aussies made 434 which is a huge total. Lots of cash was matched at 100 to 1, but SA pulled it out in the final over.

Another famous one was a horse race over hurdles where one horse unseated the rider. Quick as a flash, a punter at the track laid this horse £50k to win £500. This was matched by a hapless TV viewer - "live" TV in the UK can be anything up to 5 seconds behind the action.

What happened next was pure farce. The two leading horses fell at the next fence. Meanwhile the rider of the horse the big bet was matched on remounted and went on to win the race!

Would you lay 100 to win 1 ?

Rx God

Johnboy

New member

Member

Professional At All Times

Rx God

Rx God

Member

Professional At All Times

Rx God

Rx. Senior

New member

Rx God

Rx God

Member

Rx. Senior

Rx God

W-R-X Champion

Member

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page