what cracks me up is this streaks thing that everyone beleives in. NOBODY has any CURRENT data to support this method that must have worked back in the day. There can't be much value in this theory because the prices are so driven by these sytem players. I would like to see some concrete evidence to support that this streak thing is profitable, I just don't beleive that capping can be that simple
Journeyman said:
not sure, I have not seen a post for it, but it sounds like something Tony Stofo would preach about. Lots of risk involved, you need balls, a large BR, and need to be extremely sharp to get by a couple bad beats. Usually those who have a BR large enough for these do not have the interest for the minimal rewards.
I only know of one system that works year after year and takes little to no skill and does not involve chasing or number crunching.
Journeyman said:don't make us wait too long, do share?
haha.... thought I posted it. sorry about that... I am a big advocate for fading the public.
Already has started off hot this year up about 10 units. fading at the public over the last 3 years at over 70% level is up over 7000$ playing 100 basic bets at average odds of about +130.
Fading the public Over 60% with a contra movement of 10 cents has alot less plays but hits at a higher percentage and is up over $4000 over the last 3 years. Going further back then that, I do not have the exact results but they are along the lines of this data. pretty simple, and although these results are for bases, it pretty much is the same for all other sports. Football both college and NFL usually fair the best although last year with 60% of favs hitting it was an exception.
ice man said:
Yeah that is what Stofo wrote a book on, I'll try and dig up some old articles that others have based systems off and post them here. I do not agree with them as it only takes a couple bad beats to put you deep in the hole.
Sytems are a joke, they are nothing more then a report of what has already happened. The only thing they do is pursuade in a direction and only time will tell if that direction is profitable or not.
The only kind of system or trend I believe in is when a team is always domenated by another team then that team has a psychological edge on them, only then will I make a decision based approx 40% of the way cap.
The only kind of system or trend I believe in is when a team is always domenated by another team then that team has a psychological edge on them, only then will I make a decision based approx 40% of the way cap.
Sure there are ALL kinds of system plays in baseball, thats the way its always been, and that the way it shall remain. Baseball is ALL about streaks, now catching one is a whole different animal.
One of the "ole" timers streak plays is this.
Bet on a team that has won 3 games in a row, no matter whos pitching or whatever.
The other one is bet against a team that has lost 3 games in a row, no matter whos pitching.
Sure it doesnt work ALL the time, but if you are fortunate enough to "CATCH" the streak early, and press after the money becomes a freeroll, and the streak continues to many games the money gets HUGE. Sure you lose the last bet, but by that time you will have something locked up REAL nice. This is NOT for the 1-2% people, nor the faint of heart!!
This method WON the first week, when other cappers are many many multiple "units" behind.
This method was 0-2 starting today, and has a Winner with the Mets today and a Loser with the Cubs today, with one game pending and that being Colorado.
I myself Only use this in the Real League and that being the National League. Others use it in Both.
Some of you will remember when KC had such as BAD looseing streak, well this method got to the Limit at one shop and got many collections before the rope broke.
As mentioned the Real trick is to catch the streak.
I am sure there is data for the non-believers, but surely they can chase that.
BOL to ALL.
One of the "ole" timers streak plays is this.
Bet on a team that has won 3 games in a row, no matter whos pitching or whatever.
The other one is bet against a team that has lost 3 games in a row, no matter whos pitching.
Sure it doesnt work ALL the time, but if you are fortunate enough to "CATCH" the streak early, and press after the money becomes a freeroll, and the streak continues to many games the money gets HUGE. Sure you lose the last bet, but by that time you will have something locked up REAL nice. This is NOT for the 1-2% people, nor the faint of heart!!
This method WON the first week, when other cappers are many many multiple "units" behind.
This method was 0-2 starting today, and has a Winner with the Mets today and a Loser with the Cubs today, with one game pending and that being Colorado.
I myself Only use this in the Real League and that being the National League. Others use it in Both.
Some of you will remember when KC had such as BAD looseing streak, well this method got to the Limit at one shop and got many collections before the rope broke.
As mentioned the Real trick is to catch the streak.
I am sure there is data for the non-believers, but surely they can chase that.
BOL to ALL.
If anyone is familiar with Tony Stofo and book he wrote, that guy promotes chase systems, here is one that poster WC had, it is a take off from that book. Again I think that there is too much risk involved in these chase systems and the juice you will be playing with eventually on the good teams will be incredible. This is not my system or anything I use, It is this guy, Brian Pivar's System, something I dug up from a post last year at another site, there is lots more where this came from including different angles and MM.
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The Pivar System
I’m Brian Pivar, a young professional gambler, still in college, at Purdue, trying to make some extra money to party a little more in college. I have been gambling professionally for a couple months now. I have read so many peoples strategies, and money management techniques. People spend countless hours capping games, and not enough time on how much to wager on a game.
I have come up with a system that works really well with baseball, and all my examples will be in baseball, however it doesn’t only work in baseball, it works in other sports as well. This system is based on the fact that teams go on streaks. This system itself is based on a team going on 3 game winning streaks. This system deals strictly with money lines and requires a lot of discipline to make the correct wager every game.
The Set-Up
Before the season starts, you need to pick a team that you believe will have the best winning percentage in baseball this season. Don’t worry about having high moneylines just look at their winning%.
The System:
Now that you have picked your team its time to start betting. You wait until your team wins a game. Once they win a game you place your first bet. If you win that bet you place your second bet. Then your series is over. So your series consists of 2 bets. The betting system is as follows:
A, 1/2A
So for this example lets just say A is 20. your betting system would then be 20-10. This system banks on the fact that baseball teams go on 3 game winning streaks. After a team wins their first game in a series, you place a bet, based on the moneyline so that you win 20 bucks. If you win that game the next game you place a bet based on the moneyline to win 10 bucks. Once you win your 2 games, your series is complete and you wait for your next signal game, which would be your teams next win.
What makes this system different is that your loses carry over with you. I will explain this in a second. Your team wins its first game of the year, which is a signal game since they won. So now you bet on the second game of the year, you bet 30 to win 20. Lets say you lose this bet. You take the amount of money you lost which in this case is 30. Take 2/3 of 30 and add that number to A and take 1/3 of 30 and add that number to 1/2A. So now your series would look like this. 40-20. Another way to find your new1/2A is to just take your new A and divide it by 2. So once you get your new A as being 40 just divide that by 2 and that’s your new 1/2A. The exact equation is as follows…
New A= (2/3)lose + old A
New 1/2A = (1/3)lose + old 1/2A
Or New 1/2A = (NewA)/ 2
To continue where we were, our new series is 40-20. The 3rd game of the year your team wins, which is a signal game. So on the 4th game of the year you bet 60 to win 40. You win your 40, so now the first part of your system is knocked out. You now bet on the 5th game of the season, you bet 30 to win 20. You lose this game. Since you’re A is already gone in the system all you have left is 1/2A. To find your new 1/2A you do the following. Take the amount of money that you wagered, and the amount of money that you would’ve won add them together and that is your new 1/2A. So for this specific case it would be your bet 30 plus what you were trying to win which is 20 to now give you a total of 50. So your new 1/2A is 50. The exact formula is as follows…
If you’re A is already knocked out of your system and you only have 1/2A left and you lose a game this is how you find the new 1/2A…
New 1/2A = your wager + the amount you would’ve won.
Your team lost in the 5th game of the season, and they also lose in the 6th, 7th and 8th games. Now in the 9th game of the year they win, this is a signal game. So in the 10th game of the season you bet 100 to win 50. You win the game. You would then bet on the 11th game of the season going back to your original system 20-10. You bet 30 to win 20, and you win. The 12th game you sit out since you have bet the last 2 games, they win the 12th game, which is a signal game. The 13th game of the year you bet 30 to win 10. You lose. So your new 1/2A is 40. You get the idea.
Example
Date W/L Line # System Bet Wager Result Total Record
4-5-2005 W -110 Signal
4-6-2005 L -150 1 20-10 20 30 -30 -30 0-1
4-7 W -200 Signal
4-8 W -150 2 40-20 40 60 40 10 1-1
4-9 L -150 3 20 20 30 -30 -20 1-2
4-10 L -110
4-11 L -140
4-12 L -135
4-13 W 110 Signal
4-14 W -200 4 50 50 100 50 30 2-2
4-15 W -150 20-10 20 30 20 50 3-2
4-16 W -150 Signal
4-17 L -200 5 10 10 30 -30 20 3-3
4-18 L 110
4-19 W -250 Signal
4-20 W 100 6 40 40 40 40 60 4-2
4-21 L -150 7 20-10 20 30 -30 30 4-3
4-22 L -170
4-23 L 150
4-24 W -200 Signal
4-25 W -240 40-20 40 96 40 70 5-3
4-26 W -170 20 20 34 20 90 6-3
4-27 W -130 Signal
4-28 W -180 20-10 20 36 20 110 7-3
4-29 W -200 10 10 20 10 120 8-3
After a month your team’s record is 15-10 which is a win percentage of 60% your win percentage is 72%. The great part of this system is you stay out of the way when your team goes on losing streaks, and you bet during winning streaks, and you carry over your loses.
Things to remember:
1. Don’t make a wager until your selected team has won it’s signal game.
2. Once the signal game is won, wager some amount to win amount A.
3. If you win your amount A bet 1/2A on the next game
4. Once you have completed a series remember to sit out your next game, and wait for your next signal
5. if you lose a wager when your system is at A, 1/2A you take the amount of money you lost. 2/3 of loss + A is your new A. and your new 1/2A = newA/2.
6. If you lose a wager where you only have 1/2A left you take the amount you lost and add it to the 1/2A. Wager that amount on the next game that you play.
7. Continue doing this for the whole year. The key is to stay discipline.
Proof: (This is from 2 years ago-blue)
Let’s look at how you would’ve done if you played the St. Louis Cardinals all of last year….
Using my system for the Cardinal’s last year I would’ve gone 59-28. And using just a 20-10 system for the cardinals I would’ve neted 938.28.
Using this system with the Chicago Cubs who didn’t do as well as the Cardinals, I would’ve gone 40-34 and using a 20-10 system I would’ve neted 412.84.
Key to the Proof:
No matter how many games you lose, for every 2 games you win you will win A+1/2A. So if your system is 20-10, you will be netting $30 for every 2 wins that you have.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Pivar System
I’m Brian Pivar, a young professional gambler, still in college, at Purdue, trying to make some extra money to party a little more in college. I have been gambling professionally for a couple months now. I have read so many peoples strategies, and money management techniques. People spend countless hours capping games, and not enough time on how much to wager on a game.
I have come up with a system that works really well with baseball, and all my examples will be in baseball, however it doesn’t only work in baseball, it works in other sports as well. This system is based on the fact that teams go on streaks. This system itself is based on a team going on 3 game winning streaks. This system deals strictly with money lines and requires a lot of discipline to make the correct wager every game.
The Set-Up
Before the season starts, you need to pick a team that you believe will have the best winning percentage in baseball this season. Don’t worry about having high moneylines just look at their winning%.
The System:
Now that you have picked your team its time to start betting. You wait until your team wins a game. Once they win a game you place your first bet. If you win that bet you place your second bet. Then your series is over. So your series consists of 2 bets. The betting system is as follows:
A, 1/2A
So for this example lets just say A is 20. your betting system would then be 20-10. This system banks on the fact that baseball teams go on 3 game winning streaks. After a team wins their first game in a series, you place a bet, based on the moneyline so that you win 20 bucks. If you win that game the next game you place a bet based on the moneyline to win 10 bucks. Once you win your 2 games, your series is complete and you wait for your next signal game, which would be your teams next win.
What makes this system different is that your loses carry over with you. I will explain this in a second. Your team wins its first game of the year, which is a signal game since they won. So now you bet on the second game of the year, you bet 30 to win 20. Lets say you lose this bet. You take the amount of money you lost which in this case is 30. Take 2/3 of 30 and add that number to A and take 1/3 of 30 and add that number to 1/2A. So now your series would look like this. 40-20. Another way to find your new1/2A is to just take your new A and divide it by 2. So once you get your new A as being 40 just divide that by 2 and that’s your new 1/2A. The exact equation is as follows…
New A= (2/3)lose + old A
New 1/2A = (1/3)lose + old 1/2A
Or New 1/2A = (NewA)/ 2
To continue where we were, our new series is 40-20. The 3rd game of the year your team wins, which is a signal game. So on the 4th game of the year you bet 60 to win 40. You win your 40, so now the first part of your system is knocked out. You now bet on the 5th game of the season, you bet 30 to win 20. You lose this game. Since you’re A is already gone in the system all you have left is 1/2A. To find your new 1/2A you do the following. Take the amount of money that you wagered, and the amount of money that you would’ve won add them together and that is your new 1/2A. So for this specific case it would be your bet 30 plus what you were trying to win which is 20 to now give you a total of 50. So your new 1/2A is 50. The exact formula is as follows…
If you’re A is already knocked out of your system and you only have 1/2A left and you lose a game this is how you find the new 1/2A…
New 1/2A = your wager + the amount you would’ve won.
Your team lost in the 5th game of the season, and they also lose in the 6th, 7th and 8th games. Now in the 9th game of the year they win, this is a signal game. So in the 10th game of the season you bet 100 to win 50. You win the game. You would then bet on the 11th game of the season going back to your original system 20-10. You bet 30 to win 20, and you win. The 12th game you sit out since you have bet the last 2 games, they win the 12th game, which is a signal game. The 13th game of the year you bet 30 to win 10. You lose. So your new 1/2A is 40. You get the idea.
Example
Date W/L Line # System Bet Wager Result Total Record
4-5-2005 W -110 Signal
4-6-2005 L -150 1 20-10 20 30 -30 -30 0-1
4-7 W -200 Signal
4-8 W -150 2 40-20 40 60 40 10 1-1
4-9 L -150 3 20 20 30 -30 -20 1-2
4-10 L -110
4-11 L -140
4-12 L -135
4-13 W 110 Signal
4-14 W -200 4 50 50 100 50 30 2-2
4-15 W -150 20-10 20 30 20 50 3-2
4-16 W -150 Signal
4-17 L -200 5 10 10 30 -30 20 3-3
4-18 L 110
4-19 W -250 Signal
4-20 W 100 6 40 40 40 40 60 4-2
4-21 L -150 7 20-10 20 30 -30 30 4-3
4-22 L -170
4-23 L 150
4-24 W -200 Signal
4-25 W -240 40-20 40 96 40 70 5-3
4-26 W -170 20 20 34 20 90 6-3
4-27 W -130 Signal
4-28 W -180 20-10 20 36 20 110 7-3
4-29 W -200 10 10 20 10 120 8-3
After a month your team’s record is 15-10 which is a win percentage of 60% your win percentage is 72%. The great part of this system is you stay out of the way when your team goes on losing streaks, and you bet during winning streaks, and you carry over your loses.
Things to remember:
1. Don’t make a wager until your selected team has won it’s signal game.
2. Once the signal game is won, wager some amount to win amount A.
3. If you win your amount A bet 1/2A on the next game
4. Once you have completed a series remember to sit out your next game, and wait for your next signal
5. if you lose a wager when your system is at A, 1/2A you take the amount of money you lost. 2/3 of loss + A is your new A. and your new 1/2A = newA/2.
6. If you lose a wager where you only have 1/2A left you take the amount you lost and add it to the 1/2A. Wager that amount on the next game that you play.
7. Continue doing this for the whole year. The key is to stay discipline.
Proof: (This is from 2 years ago-blue)
Let’s look at how you would’ve done if you played the St. Louis Cardinals all of last year….
Using my system for the Cardinal’s last year I would’ve gone 59-28. And using just a 20-10 system for the cardinals I would’ve neted 938.28.
Using this system with the Chicago Cubs who didn’t do as well as the Cardinals, I would’ve gone 40-34 and using a 20-10 system I would’ve neted 412.84.
Key to the Proof:
No matter how many games you lose, for every 2 games you win you will win A+1/2A. So if your system is 20-10, you will be netting $30 for every 2 wins that you have.
Why Chasing Chalk will eventually break you.....
I think its good to look at the extremes (just to know if people's BR can handle basic Chase systems.)
Game 1, -200 Loss,Bet $200 to win 100: Result ===> -$200
Game 2, -200 Loss Bet $600 to win $300: Result ===>-600 -200 =-$800
Game 3 - 200 Loss Bet $1600 to win $800: Result ==> -800 -1600 =-$2400
One loss like this, and you would need to win 24 seperate series' that pay $100 to break even. This is an extreme (using odds like that), but just showing that selecting a series of games needs to be selective, and how much you must win to survive a bad blow like this and breakeven/or be profitable.
I think its good to look at the extremes (just to know if people's BR can handle basic Chase systems.)
Game 1, -200 Loss,Bet $200 to win 100: Result ===> -$200
Game 2, -200 Loss Bet $600 to win $300: Result ===>-600 -200 =-$800
Game 3 - 200 Loss Bet $1600 to win $800: Result ==> -800 -1600 =-$2400
One loss like this, and you would need to win 24 seperate series' that pay $100 to break even. This is an extreme (using odds like that), but just showing that selecting a series of games needs to be selective, and how much you must win to survive a bad blow like this and breakeven/or be profitable.
