How often do teams win by 2+ runs?

Bet-It-All · Apr 11, 2006

I am thinking about playing a Team straight up thats like +140 and than playing the favorite -1.5 +140. In the right situation I think this could work. Do you think this would be a winning system or I would get middled too often ?

Sekrah · Apr 11, 2006

I'll just say one thing.. The sportsbooks aren't stupid. There are no simple shortcuts.

I can guarantee that you will lose money doing this.

Bet-It-All · Apr 11, 2006

SweeptheBoard · Apr 11, 2006

you can win small if you're not a pig and go small; there are more 1 run games than you realize so you have to pick your spots

PokerKingJim · Apr 11, 2006

I messed around with this a bit last season just for kicks. Worked well in a very small sample size. A blanket statement of "you will always lose money doing this" is not accurate. You would have to pick the right games as is the case with any successful handicapping venture. I do agree though that you would face long odds at seeing a long term profit. My advise would be to take a season and test it out risking very little money. Good luck :toast:

quantumleap · Apr 11, 2006

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/MLB_Run_Line_Study_2005.htm

Both home and away. Both favorite and dog.

You're welcome.

quantumleap · Apr 11, 2006

I would like to add that in games with lower totals (8 and below) you would have a higher chance of having the game end with one team winning by 1 run.

PokerKingJim · Apr 11, 2006

quantumleap said:
http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/MLB_Run_Line_Study_2005.htm

Both home and away. Both favorite and dog.

You're welcome.

Nice link

quantumleap · Apr 11, 2006

Poker King Jim said:
Nice link

Thanks PKJ. I've admired your posts for a long time.

I too have tried this angle and let me tell you that the books generally have this angle covered. However, there are some opportunities that can be had by betting a Polish Middle. Using the table at this link will give you the odds of a team not winning by 1 run. Combine this with the tendencies of the teams playing and the total line for the game and you can have an advantage.

mike0187 · Apr 11, 2006

I think close to 30% of games land on one run.

However, like someone mentioned earlier, if you did this on games where you have two poor pitchers, or two higher scoring teams I think it would work.

quantumleap · Apr 11, 2006

Here's the table from that link:

<TABLE width=676 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=193>Data Current through Monday, July 18, 2005</TD><TD align=middle width=155>Home Favorites of more than -110 (869)
</TD><TD align=middle width=150>Road Favorites of more than -110 (355)
</TD><TD align=middle width=150>ALL Favorites of more than -110 (1224)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE width=676 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=193></TD><TD align=middle width=71>#</TD><TD align=middle width=78>Pct.</TD><TD align=middle width=57>#</TD><TD align=middle width=87>Pct.</TD><TD align=middle width=63>#</TD><TD align=middle width=81>Pct.</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width=193>Win by 2 Runs or More</TD><TD align=middle width=71>376</TD><TD align=middle width=78>43.3 %</TD><TD align=middle width=57>147</TD><TD align=middle width=87>41.4 %</TD><TD align=middle width=63>523</TD><TD align=middle width=81>42.7 %</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width=193>Win by Exactly 1 Run</TD><TD align=middle width=71>155</TD><TD align=middle width=78>17.8 %</TD><TD align=middle width=57>43</TD><TD align=middle width=87>12.1 %</TD><TD align=middle width=63>198</TD><TD align=middle width=81>16.2 %</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width=193>Lose by Exactly 1 Run</TD><TD align=middle width=71>87</TD><TD align=middle width=78>10.0 %</TD><TD align=middle width=57>66</TD><TD align=middle width=87>18.6 %</TD><TD align=middle width=63>153</TD><TD align=middle width=81>12.5 %</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width=193>Lose by 2 Runs or More</TD><TD align=middle width=71>251</TD><TD align=middle width=78>28.9 %</TD><TD align=middle width=57>99</TD><TD align=middle width=87>27.9 %</TD><TD align=middle width=63>350</TD><TD align=middle width=81>28.6 %</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

PokerKingJim · Apr 11, 2006

quantumleap said:
Thanks PKJ. I've admired your posts for a long time.

I too have tried this angle and let me tell you that the books generally have this angle covered. However, there are some opportunities that can be had by betting a Polish Middle. Using the table at this link will give you the odds of a team not winning by 1 run. Combine this with the tendencies of the teams playing and the total line for the game and you can have an advantage.

:toast:

According to that link, 27.8% of all games in 2005 were decided by one run.

SweeptheBoard · Apr 12, 2006

Using 17% as our number and assuming both sides are +130 in all 100 games...

We would then risk $200 each game, $100 on the fav and $100 on the dog.

We win 83 games x $30 profit = $2,490
We lose 17 games @ $200 each = $3,400

We lose $910 over 100 games. Not bad - only costs you $9.10 per game. That's less than a beer and a hot dog at the game!

Gotta pick your spots if you want to play with this....

How often do teams win by 2+ runs?

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