Sometime last year on a different forum, someone mentioned that betting reverse runlines +350 or higher with some "discretion" provided approximately a 15 cent edge. I tracked some plays last year (I was very sporadic in tracking it) and after 44 plays with no discretion it was 11-33 +6.91 units. A 15 cent edge would have predicted +6.60 units after 44 plays so it was in fact close, whether a coincidence or not.
I will be tracking it again this year on my own but decided to post it here in case there is any interest. The first game this year with a reverse runline over +350 is KC at NYY on April 11th.
I will be using lines from Pinny exclusively, usually with the overnight lines, however this may not always be the case (if I forget or think a line will move farther in our favor).
I have no idea how this "system" will work this year, last year may have been a fluke as Tampa Bay really took it to the Yankees over the course of the season, providing a good chunk of the wins. Last year the longest losing streak in the games I tracked was 9 games, and if one were to actually bet this system a Martingale system would NOT be eefective.
Other posters are very welcome (and encouraged!) to chime in with their thoughts, ideas, etc., but I will be using the lines I find at the times that find them.
SYSTEM RULES:
1) This will be a running thread all season.
2) All plays are risking 1 unit.
3) CAUTION: I am not actually betting these games, I am simply tracking them and I advise you not to bet them unless you are simply doing so out of fun or curiosity, not with the expectation of making money.
Alright, the first play was yesterday, so this thread is a little late, but here goes:
Tuesday April 11th:
KC -1.5 vs. NYY +360
I will be tracking it again this year on my own but decided to post it here in case there is any interest. The first game this year with a reverse runline over +350 is KC at NYY on April 11th.
I will be using lines from Pinny exclusively, usually with the overnight lines, however this may not always be the case (if I forget or think a line will move farther in our favor).
I have no idea how this "system" will work this year, last year may have been a fluke as Tampa Bay really took it to the Yankees over the course of the season, providing a good chunk of the wins. Last year the longest losing streak in the games I tracked was 9 games, and if one were to actually bet this system a Martingale system would NOT be eefective.
Other posters are very welcome (and encouraged!) to chime in with their thoughts, ideas, etc., but I will be using the lines I find at the times that find them.
SYSTEM RULES:
1) This will be a running thread all season.
2) All plays are risking 1 unit.
3) CAUTION: I am not actually betting these games, I am simply tracking them and I advise you not to bet them unless you are simply doing so out of fun or curiosity, not with the expectation of making money.
Alright, the first play was yesterday, so this thread is a little late, but here goes:
Tuesday April 11th:
KC -1.5 vs. NYY +360
ucking:
