Gambling: Profit or Not?

707782 · Apr 12, 2006

For all your gambler out there, no matter if you play poker, play casino games, or bet of sports or any other sort of gambling, do you really consider youself making a profit on it, or you just do it because it's fun, but you know for sure that in the long run, 9 out of 10 people will lose.

I knew a lot of crazy gamblers, I mean, almost everyone around me is into some sort of gambling, but I never heard one person that's making a profit in the long run, yeah, they might be lucky and won a little profit sometime, but in the long run, everyone lose their azz off.

So, are you winning overall?

Bluemyboy · Apr 12, 2006

707782 said:
For all your gambler out there, no matter if you play poker, play casino games, or bet of sports or any other sort of gambling, do you really consider youself making a profit on it, or you just do it because it's fun, but you know for sure that in the long run, 9 out of 10 people will lose.

I knew a lot of crazy gamblers, I mean, almost everyone around me is into some sort of gambling, but I never heard one person that's making a profit in the long run, yeah, they might be lucky and won a little profit sometime, but in the long run, everyone lose their azz off.

So, are you winning overall?

your numbers should be 99 out of 100 lose.

Right now in my short years of gambling I am up significantly, thanks due to that I learned good money management and have the tools to win in the long run, short run streaks are meaningless to me. I do not play all the sports and know when to stop something that is not working. I do not play many games and if I feel the urge to need action, 5-10$ will suffice for a bet.

Bluemyboy · Apr 12, 2006

Bluemyboy said:
your numbers should be 99 out of 100 lose.

Right now in my short years of gambling I am up significantly, thanks due to that I learned good money management and have the tools to win in the long run, short run streaks are meaningless to me. I do not play all the sports and know when to stop something that is not working. I do not play many games and if I feel the urge to need action, 5-10$ will suffice for a bet.

when I say significanly up, it is what I consider to be a very nice ammount for the ammount I bet and how long I have been betting for. For others it may not be very much due to their unit size and for others it may be alot more.

707782 · Apr 12, 2006

Wow, you're up from gambling? I wonder how much you're up?

Please provide me with a figure.

Christian · Apr 12, 2006

Bluemyboy said:
your numbers should be 99 out of 100 lose.

well said.

i've been winning for the past couple years, so i'm pretty confident that i can keep it up long-term...

but it took YEARS of losing and a YEARS of "practice" and studying to even have a chance.

it takes doctors, lawyers, etc. etc. years of study to even have a chance to prove themselves in their respective fields...

if you think you'll even have a chance to be a long-term winner in any less time, you're kidding yourself.

Bluemyboy · Apr 12, 2006

I have been gambling for about the last 3 years. The first year I won about 1500$ in the NFL. I lost every other sport I tried that year, although I did not bet enough to lose that. I lost in the NFL the next year, but was still up. After that I started reading alot and learning about good money management. I now follow strict rules for myself about how much I bet, a set amount as I see every play I make just as good as the last and just as good as the next I will make. I up my unit size when I can afford to after a very extended good run. This year I kept all my records and I won almost 2500 in CFB, lost about 900 in the NFL ( this was a fluke year, with 60% favs covering), lost about 300 in NBA, and won just over 400 in CBB. In short I am an underdog, fade public bettor.

Bluemyboy · Apr 12, 2006

I still do not consider myself to be any type of good gambler, but I know I have lots of outs all the time and am very strict with my betting tendencies.

707782 · Apr 12, 2006

Christian said:
well said.

i've been winning for the past couple years, so i'm pretty confident that i can keep it up long-term...

but it took YEARS of losing and a YEARS of "practice" and studying to even have a chance.

it takes doctors, lawyers, etc. etc. years of study to even have a chance to prove themselves in their respective fields...

if you think you'll even have a chance to be a long-term winner in any less time, you're kidding yourself.

Well said, I mean all the gambler out there are not pros, they just do it for fun, and hope to win some extra money for gas, but they sure will lose it all back soon or later. And for the pros out there, it will take a lot of time and studys and lost to get some winning back, but consider all those, I don't know if it's worth it, if you're winning, I don't think you will be a millionaire just by winning on bet, so I know for sure that it's not worth it.

But, like I said before, most people do it for fun even though they know they will lose in the long run, but they still do it. Just like smoking...

Also, the comparison between the money that the 2% that's able to win in the long run and the money that 99% of people who lost, it's just no comparison......

Christian · Apr 12, 2006

i don't know about that. i know a couple guys who make pretty decent six-figure incomes each year betting on sports.

and i'm sure there are guys out there who make millions. i've never met them. but i know they're out there.

look at all those syndicates and the guys who use beards and runners, etc. that type of behavior/activity isn't financially feasible unless you're making high six-figures or seven-figures each year.

so i'm sure there are true to life millionaires in this business. but like i said, i've honestly never met anyone like them. it's just my educated guess.

anyway, it's not about "winning one bet" for a million dollars...it's about winning the "grind" you'd be surprised how quickly you can rack up a nice profit betting $1,000/game or more.

but, like any business, it takes money to make money. you can't start betting a dime per game with a bankroll of $10,000...you'll be bankrupt within 6 months. that's just the reality.

to make a living or even make a profit worth dedicating a part-time handicapping lifestyle (3 or 4 hours per day) you really should have a bankroll of at least, i'd say, probably $50,000...$100,000 would be better.

it wouldn't be worth it, in my opinion, to be betting anything less than $500-$1,000/game and expect to make serious money. it's just not going to happen. if you want to bet for fun, sure, that's different. but for a serious investment, "it takes money to make money"

WVU · Apr 12, 2006

I am up enough to make it my living. I am a pure bonus whore though and so are 90% of those who are ahead long term.

707782 · Apr 12, 2006

WVU said:
I am up enough to make it my living. I am a pure bonus whore though and so are 90% of those who are ahead long term.

Do you make it through betting sports or ???

WVU · Apr 12, 2006

when I have the advantage over the house I place a bet. Mostly I make money on Video poker, hold em poker, and blackjack. I bet sports heavily, but it is not the breadwinner that casino games are. I dabble in stupid shit like American Idol, just because I can usually hedge out.

at least 90% of my profits are because of some type of bonus or contest prize of various sorts. I play very aggressively and without mercy on the house. I will take advantage any way I can short of cheating. I have had accounts in nearly a thousand online casino and sportsbooks over the years. Before the internet I was a card counter and that was much tougher.

Christian · Apr 12, 2006

wvu, i'm surprised to hear you make that high of a % of your yearly profit from bonus-whoring...

don't get me wrong, i try to maximize that as well, but i would estimate i probably make about 5-10% of my profits each year from that.

either way, it's good to hear about another guy taking advantage of all the bonuses out there! there are still plenty of really smart gamblers who don't make the most out of all that free money to be had.

WVU · Apr 12, 2006

There are many contests online that are obscure enought to be positive EV. I have been milking the house since 1997 online. I win a lot of positive EV progressives as well. I used to fly to different cities chasing progressives but those days are over for me.

707782 · Apr 12, 2006

So, what kind of bonus are you guys taking? What casino, or online gaming firm?

Do you cash out after you met the requirement for the casino.

Bluemyboy · Apr 12, 2006

I definately agree, you need to be a contest whore. Although I would like to say, just try and add a little something to the site where you are participating in a contest. Put up a post or post some plays. Not, much but something.

Bluemyboy · Apr 12, 2006

707782 said:
So, what kind of bonus are you guys taking? What casino, or online gaming firm?

Do you cash out after you met the requirement for the casino.

I am talking about forum contests.....rollovers are not a problem, give me 5x....10x or more, I will not back down, I take the money they give me plus what I win. For the most part the contests I win are a couple hundred a pop with 3-5x roll over and 1 month hold period. Those are a simp to cash out, Honestly I believe that if you have any type of Money management at all, even if you are not a very good capper you should still leave with something to show for it.

707782 · Apr 12, 2006

Bluemyboy said:
I am talking about forum contests.....rollovers are not a problem, give me 5x....10x or more, I will not back down, I take the money they give me plus what I win. For the most part the contests I win are a couple hundred a pop with 3-5x roll over and 1 month hold period. Those are a simp to cash out, Honestly I believe that if you have any type of Money management at all, even if you are not a very good capper you should still leave with something to show for it.

I'm not talking to you.

uppy:

Iceman · Apr 13, 2006

the 5-10% of people that are winning at this are working the hardest at this, PEORID. Approach this with passion, organization, line shopping, discipline,money management and dedicaton and maybe you will come ahead. Half ass this and you will eventually lose.

Fezzik · Apr 13, 2006

Generic buzz words are one thing, solid guidelines are better.

Nine.com gives free 1/2 points on Friday. Skybook does the same for wagers up to $300.

Yet, 99% of wagers on teams are made at shots OTHER than those on Friday, for lines that are worse.

This is pure donkey stuff. If you are a $300 or less bettor, get an account at these two places.

I cannot tell you how many people say "I just bet it where I have money".

Money management, in my opinion, is a total crutch. I know lots of guys with crappy money management that overbet certain games and win.

Most guys lose for 1 reason and 1 reason only, they cannot cash at a 52.4% win rate. And a big reason for this is they have Wash +3 when every good bettor out there had them +3.5 today.

Go to trackpicks.com and check out 120 active "pro" handicappers. One of them has been able to win 100 units lifetime vs. market numbers. Over 1/2 are down over 100 units. It's easy to dismiss this and say "Those guys suck" (actually many of them do suck) but the key is that people use silly pie in the sky goals like 57% for capping. The truth is that 53.5% is damn hard with high volume. Most successful bettors cap at around 52-52.5% but with bonus whoring, extra 1/2 points, reduced vigs the best win every year.........

:modemman: :money8:

I just bet the Nashville Kats -4.5, caught the injury news from a friend. I wanted to work out/relax.

BULLSHIT. Ran over Elvis driving to the Hilton to grab my 4.5. Hundreds of guys in the book too "busy" kicking back, drinking beer to bother picking up that free money.