Waz's Blackbox System - Thursday (36-32 YTD +5.88 Units)

Waz · Apr 12, 2006

Wednesday: 3-4 -0.83 Units
YTD: 36-32 +5.88 Units

I have been struggling slightly the last few days (down a couple of units). Had 4 games that were borderline plays that I didn't make on Wednesday, which of course were 3-1. Hindsight is 20-20. That's the way it goes sometimes. My card for Thursday is one of my better ones this season.

Baltimore -118 Tampa Bay
Detroit +105 ChiSox
Milwaukee +134 St. Louis
Washington -105 NY Mets
NY Mets-Washington UNDER 8.5 (-105)
Philadelphia-Atlanta OVER 9 (+100)
Seattle +107 Cleveland
Boston -142 Toronto

I'm waiting to add 1 or 2 more, as usual, based on the line movement. However, I really think we can go 5-3 or better on the 8 games above. I'm predicting a big day! Good luck.

:103631605

Mauneau733 · Apr 13, 2006

Question for you Waz: As you are clearly looking for a sort of "magic number" to lay action on, and you obviously shop around for the best lines, what would your advice be to someone like me, who only uses a couple different books, short of setting up accounts in all of them?

For instance, the best I could find for the first game was Baltimore -124, not so great. My question essentially is whether that's worth it or not, or were you picking on the -118 because you simply thought it was particularly low?

Today I went with the Mariners at Jacobs because I thought they could win and because the +148 I was getting looked pretty attractive, where as you may have been waiting for, say a +155 or something. .... The M's won and so did I. If you thought they could/would win, why the reservations?

By no means am I meaning to sound condescending, I'm just a bit new to all of this and am trying to learn more. In that sense it might be helpful to let people know where you find these lines when possible.

Waz · Apr 13, 2006

Mauneau733 said:
Question for you Waz: As you are clearly looking for a sort of "magic number" to lay action on, and you obviously shop around for the best lines, what would your advice be to someone like me, who only uses a couple different books, short of setting up accounts in all of them?

For instance, the best I could find for the first game was Baltimore -124, not so great. My question essentially is whether that's worth it or not, or were you picking on the -118 because you simply thought it was particularly low?

Today I went with the Mariners at Jacobs because I thought they could win and because the +148 I was getting looked pretty attractive, where as you may have been waiting for, say a +155 or something. .... The M's won and so did I. If you thought they could/would win, why the reservations?

By no means am I meaning to sound condescending, I'm just a bit new to all of this and am trying to learn more. In that sense it might be helpful to let people know where you find these lines when possible.

This is a great question, and I'm glad that you asked it. Any of my picks I bet have a high enough value above a threshhold that I set. As such, if you are tailing me, and get a line that is a only a few points away from my posted line, then it still has value, but just not as much. Obviously, if you find a better line, it will have more value. I leave enough "cushion" so that each game has sufficient value.

In regards to where I am finding my lines, it varies each day. I have 7 solid outs, and each one is a valuable resource when line shopping. I generally know which way a line will move about 75-80% of the time, so I will often wait to a game gets to a certain number so I can maximize my value. The Seattle game that you mentioned above did not have the "cushion" that I was referring to, but still had a little bit of value according to the Blackbox. However, I have to leave room for a small amount of error for factors that are unconsidered and unknown. Hopefully this makes sense. Rest assured, I've got a good handle on this, and will definitely make some solid cash betting the bases this season and in future seasons. Good luck!!!

Waz · Apr 13, 2006

Here are some additions to Thursdays' card, which is going to be the biggest one of the year (in size, and profit.....hopefully):

Oakland-Minnesota OVER 8.5 (+100)
Florida -108 San Diego

I won't have another opportunity to post again before the early games, but if the Royals line happens to skyrocket to +430, I will be putting a half unit on that game as well. There's another night game that may be added later on as well.

Good luck......I feel a huge day coming on!!!

basilesox · Apr 13, 2006

Quick Question on that Royals game will you be putting your bet on the first 5 innings or the entire game.

Thanks

Waz · Apr 13, 2006

This KC bet will be for the entire game. I think the Royals have a much better chance of coming from behind against the Yanks weak bullpen than they do touching up Randy Johnson early on. In all likelihood this line will not get to the +430 level. Thus, it probably won't be a play.

basilesox · Apr 13, 2006

Hey Bro,

I just played the over in the SD - FLA game. Both Pitchers dont look to promising, Brazelton has major control issues. I do realize Vargas has great potential but this still looks like it should fly over.

Your opinion would be greatly appreciated.

Waz · Apr 13, 2006

The San Diego-Florida Over looks pretty good so far. I stayed away because these are two weak hitting clubs.

Adding another play for later on:

Arizona -118 Colorado

basilesox · Apr 13, 2006

A couple of things. I know this is kind of late..but Wind blowing out in Wrigley with Milton on the Hill. Just bet the Cubs Run Line and the over. Also this fucking As and Twins game is killing me, 5 in the first and jackshit, after.

basilesox · Apr 13, 2006

Cubs Lineup

Had I known the Cubs were planning on playing a AAA lineup I would have definitely stayed away from the over and bet the Reds. I have a bad feeling about this game. I need about 3 HRs from D LEE

Waz · Apr 13, 2006

Yeah........the Reds was definitely the play for this game. I had an outstanding offer at Matchbook that would have been bought if I would have put it in 10 seconds earlier at +182 Reds. Then the game started, and the offer was cleared out.

At least we got the A's-Twins OVER. This Milwaukee game has got me squirming in my seat. I can't believe they brought in Dan Kolb into this game. I know they are short on bullpen arms, but Turnbow is still sitting in the pen! We will need a miracle to prevent the Cards from scoring in this one.