Betting the dog on the +1.5 line is a joke in baseball. Never bet it no matter what.

CHOPTALK · Apr 13, 2006

When you bet +1.5 you are betting that your team is going to lose by exactly 1 run.

If your team loses by more than 1 you lose the bet.

If your team outright wins the game you just gave up tremendous value when you could have made a killing on the moneyline.

Take the Yankees/Royals game for example.

Royals +356
Royals +1.5 +182

The only way the Royals on the runline turns out to be a smart play is if they lose by exactly 1 run. If the Royals win the game outright you just gave away +174 in value.

That 1 run is not worth near that.

Just my 2 cents.

PokerKingJim · Apr 13, 2006

Agree completely

wagola · Apr 13, 2006

I agree it is a huge loss in value compared to the Royals SU, but so many MLB games are decided by the home team winning by 1 run. When you can get the road team +1.5 at a number like +185, it's a great value being that if the game is tied late, you've got little to worry about with a +185 bet. So your basically betting on a win or tie instead of just a win. In addition, if the Royals are down 2 late, you've got a better chance of getting a solo shot for example of a guy like Farnsworth throwing 98mph down the middle as he wouldn't want to put guys on in that situation.

ChrisParadise · Apr 13, 2006

so, to flip what you suppose then you suggest one should always play the -1.5 on the fav - otherwise they are wasting value.

i agree with both statements to an extent. but its also situational based on other variables (pitchers,projected total,home/away,etc) the facts are 30% or so of MLB games are 1 run games. its like trying to avoid landmines.

ClipJoint · Apr 13, 2006

I have to disagree on this one. I think it depends on the situation.

I am on the KC +1.5 tomorrow which is not one of those situations but I will take that run and the plus money on the road.

But take the Chicago White Sox for instance last season. They were 35-19 in 1 run games. Anaheim was 33-26.

There are a lot of 1-run games in baseall. Getting + money on a +1.5 team in a game with a low total has great value.

Duckstabber · Apr 13, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
Betting the dog on the +1.5 line is a joke in baseball. Never bet it no matter what.

What a stupid thing to say...

Wouldn't you take the Royals +1.5 in this situation?:

Royals +356
Royals +1.5 +300

CHOPTALK · Apr 13, 2006

Duckstabber said:
What a stupid thing to say...

Wouldn't you take the Royals +1.5 in this situation?:

Royals +356
Royals +1.5 +300

Lets get into reality. Of course I would give +56 for a run. There is not a sportsbook on the planet with that line.

PokerKingJim · Apr 13, 2006

Yea after thinking about it, the blanket statement of "betting the dog at +1.5 is always a bad play" is not accurate. It just seems to me to never have any value. I have never made a +1.5 play. I bet a good amount of faves -1.5 - again the only time that runline comes into play is if the fave wins by exactly one run. Here is a link that quantumleap posted just yesterday when we were discussing runlines that studied how often games are decided by 1 run

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/ML...Study_2005.htm

Excellent read on this topic

buzzerbeater9 · Apr 13, 2006

Agreed, definately only take the +1.5 on low total games. I personally like the +1 at pinnacle. So at least I don't LOSE money on those 1 run games.

earl · Apr 13, 2006

agreed, +1 a good option available at pinny :suomi:

Santo · Apr 13, 2006

I strongly disagree with the original post. Run the numbers Chop. I'll help you out.. P(1 run win) was 0.29 in 2005.

ElJefe · Apr 13, 2006

I avoid both the -1 1/2 and +1 1/2 run lines. It's never seemed to work out in the long run taking either.

AngleBroom · Apr 13, 2006

+1.5 runlines are only for people with big swingin NUTS!!!!!!!!!

levistep · Apr 13, 2006

I've been told that taking the +1.5 is the smart play because no one does it. That should make it a good play, but I haven't seen anyone win doing it.

steeser · Apr 13, 2006

levistep said:
I've been told that taking the +1.5 is the smart play because no one does it. That should make it a good play, but I haven't seen anyone win doing it.

I tend to agree with you that anyone who ever plays runlines plays the -1.5, so by the contrarian logic the +1.5 would be a smarter play. Still can't pull the trigger on it.

m17who · Apr 13, 2006

I totally agree with you on this Chop, but I do take advantage of the - 1 1/2, and profited from it

cris4700 · Apr 13, 2006

Taking + 1.5 runs+$$ on the dollar is a profitable play for the first few months of the season. You have to be getting +$$ in addition to the 1.5.
Do the research

Journeyman · Apr 13, 2006

I think the -1.5 is the real sucker play in the long run.

Dubpoet · Apr 13, 2006

When you have two good teams and your are on the road dog it sometimes pays to get +1.5 and lay a bit. Not often.

patswin · Apr 13, 2006

I will bet the RL +1.5 at + odds depending on the situation. Alot of factors should be considered - o/u, pitchers, and is the big fav home or away....if I can get a +1.5 at + odds with a game total of 7 or 7.5 its worth the shot. The value goes down the higher the totals. I compare this to a football game where you can get 14 pts with a low total. The value is there in certain situations.

Betting the dog on the +1.5 line is a joke in baseball. Never bet it no matter what.

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