SSI said:
would not count out cincy, texas, toronto.. those are high scoring teams and what you look for -- when laying the (-1.5) runs.
what you need to identify are the lowest scoring BAD teams..
Ok, last year
top half of run scoring teams were only +40 units, compared with +.500 teams at +220. Runs ALLOWED and run differential is actually more indicative of success:
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 161pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="214"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt; width: 65pt;" x:num="18435" height="14" width="86"> $ 18,435.00 </td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Top Half</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="-17964" height="14"> $(17,964.00)</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td>Bottom Half</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="-10389" height="14"> $(10,389.00)</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td>Worst 7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="-22404" height="14"> $(22,404.00)</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td>Negative Differential</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl25" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="22875" height="14"> $ 22,875.00 </td> <td>
</td> <td>Postive Differential</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="-8434" height="14"> $ (8,434.00)</td> <td>
</td> <td>Worst 7</td> </tr></tbody> </table>
I still like winning % better b/c the worst 7 in winning percentage accounted for 201 of the 218 lost units of the under .500 teams. I also think it is easier to identify those 6-8 teams by likely winning percentage than it is run differential.