FHMESQ twist on SSI -1.5 system plays, 0-0 on the season. Starting TODAY!!!!!!

I will be posting my plays based on SSI's base system of playing the road team on the -1.5 run line. As I believe you know, you play the road team -1.5 at the start of a series and double your bet until you win or the series ends, starting anew each series. I did quite a bit of research on last year and determined as follows (I estimated the run line based on the game line):

If you always played the roadie and went 1-2-4-8 (8 only if 4 game series), it ended up about 4 units. Looking further into the numbers I determined the .500 and above teams were +220 units and the under .500 teams were -216 units. Looking a step further, 210 of the 216 lost units on the under .500 side were from the worst 7 teams in the league (the teams at .450 or under winning percentage).

Thus, I am deviating from SSI in that I will bet the HOME TEAM if one of the worst teams in the league is on the road. This should eliminate many of the losses. At this time I have 5 teams I am betting against (i.e., if they are on the road, take the home team). They are Florida, KC, TB, Pitts and Wash. Wash is at Florida this weekend and KC is at TB. I have decided to play TB as the home team but stick with Florida since I think Washington is actually better than them. Feel free to deviate from my analysis of the bad teams if you wish. This list is fluid and may decrease, increase or change. When we hit the 2 month mark I may just include all the teams at .450 or under on the avoid list. Anyway, I will keep track of my record and post it here.

As I said, it is SSI's system with my analysis added. Many of the plays will be the same as SSI. He deserves and gets the credit for the base system. Hopefully this works out and best of luck. Once I hit 300 posts I will also post in the tracker forum.

Today's plays, all for one unit:

LAA 100/145
Sea 100/260
Cle 100/155
Cubs 100/145
Mil 100/200
TB 100/140
SD 100/215
Wash 100/215
NYY 115/100
Cincy 100/255
Tor 100/205
Phil 100/125
Hou 100/170
Texas 100/195
SF 100/200

Best of luck.:thumbsup2:

Those are all -1.5 runs, sorry if that wasn't clear

best of luck, to you and i,,,,, go KC (get it?) or a one run game will get us both..

also want to add,,,,,, im playing it a straight 1-2 unit progression through the first 2 games of each series, but starting with all game 3's,,,,,,, ill use my own judgements and units will be from 0-4.............. example, yesterday, i had 4 games going to game 3's and they system was up around 16 units for the series set..... an option would have been to just sit it out, as three of the third games lost and some around 2-3 units were dropped...

Got it, let's hope they both end up with a 2 run win during the series. GL, let's circle back tomorrow.

if we can get 6 games tonight, we will be ok..

i jumped in today on ssi's system( thanks ssi) your variation is of interest, but i am wondering if maybe it is a little soon to make the determination of which teams to reverse the tables on. i guess my point is that the 200 units lost on the 7 worst teams is because they all started out losing everything in sight--maybe some of them right the ship and start making units. kc for instance has played a couple of good teams--maybe they show up better in the next week or two. as you two experts concluded above, it is quite possible for both sides to succeed in a series, and i hope that is what happens.

i think you have to look at it logically as well.......... as i stated, going into yesterday, the thing was up (+16.06 units) for game 1's and 2's, for this week...... thats a heck of a lot of profit for 2 days, no need to senselessly give it back on 4 (game 3's).. thats why, when we get to the third game of each series, ill think long and hard about the amount of units to lay down...

fhemq: let me know, what your going to do on the game 3's.. takes some guts (or ignorance) for me to throw that $400 on KC or another bad team, or a gascan of a pitcher..

Tendog - I agree with you, it may be early to figure out the teams, that is why I am starting with only 4 or maybe 5 (I still haven't decided on Wash). Personally, I can't see any of those 4 teams being better than one of the 7 worst teams. Perhaps, MAYBE, TB could be better, but the other 3 are complete garbage IMO. TB playing 57 games against Bos, NYY and Tor doesn't make for a great outcome. Like I said, it is fluid and people are free to play those as roadies.

SSI, agree on the game 3s. I actually didn't play any of the 4 game 3s yesterday at all (thankfully) as only Col won. It will all depend who is playing, pitching, the lines and how much the system is up or down the first two days. I decided to take a day off before starting this, otherwise, I probably would have gone 4 units on Oak, none on KC (although I would have been on NYY under my system and banked it in game 1) and maybe 2 each on Mil and Col. If this system works and I get up on the year I may also be more ballsy on the game 3s and 4s.

hi

I think your on point with your 3 or 4 bad teams.. and i wouldnt wanna do those eams. there awful on the road, and the juice is awful.. but i guess thats the point of -1.5 going the other way


GL with your system; i think you'll enjoy

Like the tony halve system, many series go in the first two plays.... So maybe an idea would be if a series goes to game three.. sit it out and 'double' up on the 3rd game progression on the teams next series. Some statistical data could help you

BJordan05 said:

Like the tony halve system, many series go in the first two plays.... So maybe an idea would be if a series goes to game three.. sit it out and 'double' up on the 3rd game progression on the teams next series. Some statistical data could help you

Click to expand...

explain, not quite sure I follow you

Shaping up for an ugly day.

do not push the panic button so early, quit watching the crap and just check the scores, ever so often..

all we need is 5 or 6 wins today and things will be alright...