Fridays Play & Other game observations

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Baseball continues to be unpredictable. For this reason, I am going to try to get back into things with just one play. I will also provide my analysis on the rest of today’s card.


Astros @ Diamondacks
Play: Under 8.5
Comment:
Pros:

The Astros are coming off 18 innings of baseball on Thursday in San Francisco, and later traveled that night to open up another west coast series in Arizona. Fatigue should wear on all their best hitters, who were all in both games yesterday (except for Ensberg who didn’t start either game due to a staff infection, and is not 100% today). With that said, the Astros did a good job saving their best bullpen pitchers in yesterdays double header, by using a lot of long relief pitchers in the fist game and having Oswalt go 8 plus innings in game two. Although the Astros were able to put up some runs against a struggling rookie in game two, they don’t have the most explosive lineup in baseball, and usually struggle putting up runs on the road. Today they face one of the best young pitchers in the league in Webb. Webb is coming off two solid starts, and has always had success against the Astros. He comes into today’s game with a 1.98 ERA against them. He is also a workhorse and able to go deep into games. This is vital when betting an under when the Diamondbacks are involved, as they have one of the worst bullpens in the National League. Webb has faired well against every batter in tonight’s lineup except one. The top of the order has struggled against Webb, as Biggio is 1 for 13 against Webb. The middle of the lineup has also struggled against him, as Berkman and Ensberg are a combined 2 for 14 against him. Lastly, the bottom of the order has failed to do anything against him as well, as Ausmus and Everett are a combined 2 for 19 against him. Webb has also shown good control in his first two starts, and has done a good job keeping his walks down.

This is a perfect spot for Pettite to get back on track, as he faces one of the worst lineups in baseball, and a lineup whose best hitters are either lefties, are switch hitters that are better when batting on the left side of the plate. Petitte also rebounded well from his first start which was his worst game as an Astros, as he made only a couple mistakes against the Nationals. Although his career totals aren’t terrible impressive against the Diamondbacks, he has actually pitched well against 4 of the 5 best hitters in their lineup, including Green, Clark, and Tracy. The Diamondbacks just got done playing a series against a variety of sub par pitching, yet were unable to capitalize on it. I see no reason for them to start today against a quality veteran pitcher who happens to be a lefthander, two things that have posed problems for the Diamondbacks in the last 2 years.

Cons:
In the past, Webb has shown a tendency of giving signs in previous starts that a bad outing is in the cards. He doesn’t show this by allowing a lot of runs or walks in his previous start, rather a lot of hits. He is coming off a start in which he allowed 9 hits in 6 innings of work. This is also concerning as he is backed by a poor bullpen that adds risk to the under. Pettite is also not pitching to form this year, and has left a lot of pitches up in the strike zone. The result has been 5 home runs allowed in the first two games. He also has faced 2 anemic lineups in his first two starts, yet failed to capitalize on either one. The Diamondbacks have a lot of hitters that can make mistake pitches pay, yet often struggle against good location pitchers. Which Pettite will show up tonight is the risk to be seen.

Conclusion:
In this game, there exists two quality starters, two sub par lineups, two bullpens who have their best pitchers well rested, and value on the under. Although baseball has been tricky year to date, I still feel comfortable enough to take a stab at this under.



When I handicap baseball games, I try to derive an intrinsic value to a line by using qualitative and quantitative analysis to find the % chance each team has of winning a particular game. I don’t bet the team that has the best chance of winning, rather the team that has the best value (in my opinion), therefore having the best risk adjusted return in the long run. For this reason, I don’t try to accomplish the highest winning %, rather the most money. Over the years I have handicapped baseball, this is done by betting on value lines makers have given out, as a portfolio of these games (500 or so over the course of a season) combined with savvy money management techniques will give you the best chance for LONG RUN SUCCESS.

Here is my take on the tonight’s card. By each team are the intrinsic value I have derived and the % chance each team has of winning. Since baseball hasn’t been playing to fundamental form for the most part, I have raised my margin of safety, which is an automatic stabilizer for limiting bets.

Mariners @ Red Sox Current Line: +194/-212
Mariners: Fair Value: +180 Chance of winning: 35.7%
Red Sox: Fair Value: -180 Chance of Winning: 64.3%

Comment: Small value on the Mariners here, as the Red Sox always tend to be one of the most overvalued teams. The Mariners continue to be undervalued by lines makers here, as their lineup isn’t nearly getting the respect they deserve. With that said, Moyer is set up for failure in this game. Moyer is custom made to pitch home games or in spacious parks against young lineups that lack experience. This allows him to keep hitters off balance and outwit them. With that said, the he faces a veteran lineup that takes a lot of pitcher and forces a pitcher to come in on them. Moyer simply lacks the stuff to challenge hitters. He is also in a notorious hitter’s park away from home. Although Schilling has pitched well in both his first two games, I would be reluctant to lay these kinds of odds on him. He still has is coming off a poor spring, and his first two games were against two struggling lineups that aren’t hitting anywhere near as well as what the Mariners have shown this year.

Bottom line: Although there is some value on the Mariners, I just can’t put money on Moyer in this spot. Making bets such as the Red Sox in this spot are not the wisest bets for long run success. The over is somewhat compelling, but not enough to take it.


Brewers @ Mets Current line: +141/-149
Brewers: Fair Value: +130 Chance of Winning: 43.5%
Mets: Fair Value: -130 Chance of Winning: 56.5%
Comment:

Small value has been created on the Brewers here as a result of the solid play the Mets have put forth lately. They have also quickly become a public favorite, which goes hand in hand with a bad long run team to bet on. I still think Glavine will make a good fade this year in certain spots, and this may be one of them. He has historically struggled against the Brewers and faces a couple of hitters that have given him past trouble. He is coming off two games against easy lineups that are much worse than the one he faces today. Cuapono is one of the more underrated lefties in baseball, and doesn’t make a bad investment as this big of an underdog. However, there are a few things keeping me away from the Brewers today. One being that they are coming off an exhausting and emotional extra inning win where they used a lot of bullpen and now have to travel to open up another road series. Cuapono also struggled against the Mets in his two starts, and the Mets are simply playing too good to fade right now.

Bottom Line: I think the Mets will make a better fade than bet this year. The same can be said for Glavine. However, I would rather wait to see their hitting and fielding slow down, because as a whole, this team is dialed in right now.

If there are other games you want an outside opinion on, let me know, and I will share my thoughts on them as well.
 

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Just wanted to say that's outstanding work. I think Webb was a little unlucky in his last game with the 9 hits, his K rate and BB rate indicate his stuff is looking good. And as you noted he's owned this HOU lineup. The other write-ups are great as well.
 

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thanks for the write up, looks good to me, i'm taking the dbacks in this one.
i also have cubs ,tribe,minn,and bjays tonight. 2 units on cleve . any strong thoughts on these would be nice, if you were looking for something to do. i could always double up on one. :) or how about the over in atl tonight?
seriously great write up, i hope you're able to keep it up, and i'll be lurking.
thanks and good luck.
 

As Above, So Below
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Yeah I'm also interested in your thoughts on the ATL O/U, and would like to hear your thoughts on the A's/Rangers game.
 

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Thanks guys for the compliments.

Indians @ Tigers: Current Line: -102/-106

Indians: Fair Value: +105 Chance of Winning:48.7%
Tigers: Fair Value: -105 Chance of Winning: 51.3%
Comment: I think both teams and starting pitchers are a fade today. Combined with having no value on either team, this looks like a good stay away game for me. Westbrook pitched well in both his starts, but Westbrook bettors may have missed the boat, as no other team has given him more problems in the past than the Tigers. Westbrook lacks dominating stuff, and usually struggles against teams he faces several times throughout the year. There are several hitters in tonight’s lineup for the Tigers that have given him problems on a consistent basis. The Tigers are also coming off a series where they were swept at home, but continue to swing the bat well. The Indians bullpen is pitcher poorly right now, and has been issuing a lot of free passes. This is not something you want your money on when facing such a potent lineup. With that said, the Tigers are a bit of a risk as well. They used several bullpen pitchers yesterday, and having to rely on Rogers is not the most intriguing thing to have to do. He too has been owned by his opposition, and simply doesn’t match up well against him. He much like Westbrook, faces too many people that pose problems against him to put you money on.

Bottom line: Too many cons on both teams to have to lay even money on. If one has to bet this game, the side the most fundamental indicators point to is the over.


Padres/ Braves over/under assessment:
Comment:
In my opinion, this is a dangerous spot for an over bettor with the line the lines makers put forth. Value has been created on the under due to the two horrible starts that Hudson put in so far. However, both starts were road games, where he has been known to continue to struggle when he shows signs of struggling in the first inning. In both Hudson’s starts, he struggled early with his control, forcing him to fine tune his pitches, thus feeding hitters with tailor made pitches. With that said, this fundamental flaw is not sustainable for Hudson, and this game poses a perfect spot for him to rebound. He has also had success in both starts against the Padres. With Klesko and Cameron injured, the Padres heavily rely on Piazza, Giles and Castillo to produce runs. All three have struggled against Hudson in the past. The Padres are not a lineup to warrant such a high total.
Park is a bit tricky. He is overachieving so far this year, and has been known to pitch horrible on the road. The Braves lineup has been scoring and swinging well. The Padres bullpen is sub par, and not designed to eat up innings (Park is not known to go deep into games). He has also struggled against the Braves in the past. These are all compelling reasons for the over. However, Park has pitched surprisingly well in Atlanta, and has actually dominated A. Jones, Jordan and Renteria. With Chipper out of the lineup, this is detrimental to over bettors.

I don’t see enough to take the over in this spot, and actually think is should be set around 8.5 to 9.
 

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Meathead, both the Twins and Blue Jays stand a better chance of losing than winning. However, both are a bit undervalued today, and make for a good investment for a diversifed card like you have. Both teams are too good to warrant such basis points in this spot, but I see just enough for me to be gunshy on both.
Blue Jays : Fair Value +140
Twins: Fair Value +145

I will be up with a more detailed assesment on the A's game later, but for now, lines makers seem to put forth an efficient line, as I value the A's at -133 and Rangers at +133.
 

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looks like i have a card with close margins, i'll take it, at least i'm not way off, right? :)
anyway the wind is blowing out in atlanta, with their bully and with hudson not pitching right(yet?) and with chan ho(outta the)park i'll gamble they'll get over 9 today, also atl is 9-1 to the over and sd 6-1.
also i'll also go with the hot hand in westbrook along with their hitting right now. to beat the other gambler/hot head. westbrook might be an underated pitcher right now, having a solid if unspectacular past and a hot/ present.
thanks for the response and the write ups.
 

As Above, So Below
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Thanks again Buffet. Looking forward to your TEX/OAK writeup.

:toast:
 

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well , 4 wins 1 tie 1 loss(2 units) altogether i was plus 3 units today with a small 4 day winning streak going.other games i didnt have on here
anyway as long as you like to i'll throw out a few more for saturday i was looking at. thanks in advance, advice looked spot on friday
tomorrow i like o 9 cubs/pitt, o 11 phi/col, minn -121
need help with tb/kc o10-132(no value?), mets -145, and az -116(maybe a little high)
it goes without saying you have no obligation to answer these, but thanks in advance anyway.
 

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I have always enjoyed tour write ups and like the info. Last year I started reading some forums showed to me by a friend and came across your post which were outstanding and I would recommend you to anyone looking for serious help to make good money on baseball. My Husband and I have did very well and we also book so we make double as well as lose double sometimes but keep up the good work and as I said I would recommend you to any struggling or new gambler. Take care and besr of luck.
 

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