Mariners @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -158
Comment:
Pros:
If you plan to bet on a knuckleball pitcher, it is wise to do it during day games, as it is much harder for the knuckleball to be picked up during the day. Over <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City>’s long career, he has managed an ERA one run lower during day games than at night. He also has kept his day game ERA under 3.00 last year. The Mariners lineup is much improved this year, but has a lineup of hitters that are best suited against fastball pitchers. <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> has pitched well at Fenway, and has also had success against several key hitters on the Mariners. Beltre is hitless in seven tries; Sexon has only managed 2 hits in 13 at bats, while Suzuki has also struggled against <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City>. When <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> is on, he could also go deep into games, and avoid the speculative Red Sox bullpen, which happen to be well rested with Schilling’s impressive outing on Friday night.
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This is also a perfect opportunity for a struggling Red Sox lineup to take advantage of their hitter friendly confines, as they are up against a pitcher they have consistently have had success against, and a pitcher that fundamentally should struggle against this lineup. Pineiro is a hit-or-miss pitcher. When his is on, he is one of the harder pitchers to hit. However, when he is struggling with his pitches, his mental stability follows, and a domino effect transpires. Pineiro has always struggled away from home and during the day, as he enters Saturday’s game with a one run higher ERA on the road, and during day games. He has also struggled against this Red Sox lineup, allowing 38 runs in 44 innings of work against them, which includes four poor outings at Fenway. It is no coincidence that he continues to struggle in this spot, as his style of pitching does not match up well with this lineup. Pineiro rarely comes in on hitters, and tries to make hitters chase his pitches that tend to have a lot of movement. When hitters don’t bite, he is forced to come in or walk a lot of hitters. The Red Sox lineup is one of the most patient in baseball, and patience is what causes him problems. Now that several of the Red Sox role players are gone from the lineup, they are relying more and more on Ortiz and Manny to supply runs. Luckily for Red Sox bettors, they have both dominated Pineiro in the past, while Nixon has also had success. He is also backed by a bullpen that has struggled this year, including their closer, who has pitched worst out of all of them.
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Cons:
I usually don’t like betting games where a knuckleball pitcher is involved, simply because the main derivative on the outcome of the game is whether the knuckleball is working on that particular game. This intangible is un-cappable. There are also two good hitters in the Mariners lineup that have consistently proven more than capable of hitting the knuckleball. The Red Sox lineup is overrated and not hitting well of late. They are nowhere near as dangerous as they once were. Until they prove they are playing to their capability, it might be a stretch betting them as this price. Pineiro has owned Varitek, so don’t be surprised if he isn’t in the lineup tomorrow (usually out or DH’s when <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> pitches anyways). The Knuckleball also likes warm weather, and could falter in the cold.
<o> </o>
Conclusion:
I am going to take my chances that the knuckleball works tomorrow, as it’s in the day and against a lineup that’s better suited for fastballs. Expect the Red Sox bats to finally come alive, as they face a pitcher tailor made for their ideals. My money is on the Red Sox.
<o> </o>
Side Note: I may be back with more plays later.
Play: Red Sox -158
Comment:
Pros:
If you plan to bet on a knuckleball pitcher, it is wise to do it during day games, as it is much harder for the knuckleball to be picked up during the day. Over <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City>’s long career, he has managed an ERA one run lower during day games than at night. He also has kept his day game ERA under 3.00 last year. The Mariners lineup is much improved this year, but has a lineup of hitters that are best suited against fastball pitchers. <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> has pitched well at Fenway, and has also had success against several key hitters on the Mariners. Beltre is hitless in seven tries; Sexon has only managed 2 hits in 13 at bats, while Suzuki has also struggled against <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City>. When <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> is on, he could also go deep into games, and avoid the speculative Red Sox bullpen, which happen to be well rested with Schilling’s impressive outing on Friday night.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> </o>
This is also a perfect opportunity for a struggling Red Sox lineup to take advantage of their hitter friendly confines, as they are up against a pitcher they have consistently have had success against, and a pitcher that fundamentally should struggle against this lineup. Pineiro is a hit-or-miss pitcher. When his is on, he is one of the harder pitchers to hit. However, when he is struggling with his pitches, his mental stability follows, and a domino effect transpires. Pineiro has always struggled away from home and during the day, as he enters Saturday’s game with a one run higher ERA on the road, and during day games. He has also struggled against this Red Sox lineup, allowing 38 runs in 44 innings of work against them, which includes four poor outings at Fenway. It is no coincidence that he continues to struggle in this spot, as his style of pitching does not match up well with this lineup. Pineiro rarely comes in on hitters, and tries to make hitters chase his pitches that tend to have a lot of movement. When hitters don’t bite, he is forced to come in or walk a lot of hitters. The Red Sox lineup is one of the most patient in baseball, and patience is what causes him problems. Now that several of the Red Sox role players are gone from the lineup, they are relying more and more on Ortiz and Manny to supply runs. Luckily for Red Sox bettors, they have both dominated Pineiro in the past, while Nixon has also had success. He is also backed by a bullpen that has struggled this year, including their closer, who has pitched worst out of all of them.
<o> </o>
Cons:
I usually don’t like betting games where a knuckleball pitcher is involved, simply because the main derivative on the outcome of the game is whether the knuckleball is working on that particular game. This intangible is un-cappable. There are also two good hitters in the Mariners lineup that have consistently proven more than capable of hitting the knuckleball. The Red Sox lineup is overrated and not hitting well of late. They are nowhere near as dangerous as they once were. Until they prove they are playing to their capability, it might be a stretch betting them as this price. Pineiro has owned Varitek, so don’t be surprised if he isn’t in the lineup tomorrow (usually out or DH’s when <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> pitches anyways). The Knuckleball also likes warm weather, and could falter in the cold.
<o> </o>
Conclusion:
I am going to take my chances that the knuckleball works tomorrow, as it’s in the day and against a lineup that’s better suited for fastballs. Expect the Red Sox bats to finally come alive, as they face a pitcher tailor made for their ideals. My money is on the Red Sox.
<o> </o>
Side Note: I may be back with more plays later.