MLB: Saturday Plays

Mariners @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -158
Comment:
Pros:
If you plan to bet on a knuckleball pitcher, it is wise to do it during day games, as it is much harder for the knuckleball to be picked up during the day. Over <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City>’s long career, he has managed an ERA one run lower during day games than at night. He also has kept his day game ERA under 3.00 last year. The Mariners lineup is much improved this year, but has a lineup of hitters that are best suited against fastball pitchers. <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> has pitched well at Fenway, and has also had success against several key hitters on the Mariners. Beltre is hitless in seven tries; Sexon has only managed 2 hits in 13 at bats, while Suzuki has also struggled against <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City>. When <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> is on, he could also go deep into games, and avoid the speculative Red Sox bullpen, which happen to be well rested with Schilling’s impressive outing on Friday night.
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This is also a perfect opportunity for a struggling Red Sox lineup to take advantage of their hitter friendly confines, as they are up against a pitcher they have consistently have had success against, and a pitcher that fundamentally should struggle against this lineup. Pineiro is a hit-or-miss pitcher. When his is on, he is one of the harder pitchers to hit. However, when he is struggling with his pitches, his mental stability follows, and a domino effect transpires. Pineiro has always struggled away from home and during the day, as he enters Saturday’s game with a one run higher ERA on the road, and during day games. He has also struggled against this Red Sox lineup, allowing 38 runs in 44 innings of work against them, which includes four poor outings at Fenway. It is no coincidence that he continues to struggle in this spot, as his style of pitching does not match up well with this lineup. Pineiro rarely comes in on hitters, and tries to make hitters chase his pitches that tend to have a lot of movement. When hitters don’t bite, he is forced to come in or walk a lot of hitters. The Red Sox lineup is one of the most patient in baseball, and patience is what causes him problems. Now that several of the Red Sox role players are gone from the lineup, they are relying more and more on Ortiz and Manny to supply runs. Luckily for Red Sox bettors, they have both dominated Pineiro in the past, while Nixon has also had success. He is also backed by a bullpen that has struggled this year, including their closer, who has pitched worst out of all of them.
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Cons:
I usually don’t like betting games where a knuckleball pitcher is involved, simply because the main derivative on the outcome of the game is whether the knuckleball is working on that particular game. This intangible is un-cappable. There are also two good hitters in the Mariners lineup that have consistently proven more than capable of hitting the knuckleball. The Red Sox lineup is overrated and not hitting well of late. They are nowhere near as dangerous as they once were. Until they prove they are playing to their capability, it might be a stretch betting them as this price. Pineiro has owned Varitek, so don’t be surprised if he isn’t in the lineup tomorrow (usually out or DH’s when <st1:City><st1lace>Wakefield</st1lace></st1:City> pitches anyways). The Knuckleball also likes warm weather, and could falter in the cold.
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Conclusion:
I am going to take my chances that the knuckleball works tomorrow, as it’s in the day and against a lineup that’s better suited for fastballs. Expect the Red Sox bats to finally come alive, as they face a pitcher tailor made for their ideals. My money is on the Red Sox.
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Side Note: I may be back with more plays later.

Good luck Buffett. I also like the Red Sox as well

Well, I didn’t know that the Red Sox would start 5 backup players today before I bet them, and I paid the price for it, as all five looked horrible at the plate today. Looking to bounce back tonight with this play.


Padres @ Braves
Play: Under 8
Comment:
Pros:
This game consists of two top tier pitchers coming of poor outings. If history serves this game right, this is a game where unders usually occur. The Padres have one of the most anemic lineups in baseball. Not helping matters is the fact that two key hitters, Cameron and Klesko remain out due to injury. This is a perfect spot for Smoltz to get back on track, as he makes his home debut against a team he has owned throughout his career. Last year, Smoltz faced this same Padres lineup twice, and allowed only 3 runs in 15 innings of work. Without Klesko and Cameron, the Padres only have two real threats in the lineup today. One of them being Piazza, who is 10 for 51 (.191) against Smoltz. Smoltz has also pitched other Padres hitters well, including Castilla, Young and Roberts. Smoltz rarely pitches three poor outings in a row, and I see nothing in this game that leads me to believe he will do so today. He is also backed by a bullpen that has been improving as the season goes along. Several bullpen pitchers have looked good in recent games, and are not as vulnerable as they were in the beginning of the season.

Peavy is coming off one of his worst outings of the season. This game too is a good spot for him to redeem himself as he faces a lineup that hasn’t seen him in nearly two years. Peavy is a much improved pitcher since he last faced the Braves, and usually performs well against young lineups such as the Braves. The Braves have been relying on the long ball this year to produce runs. However, Peavy has been stingy in allowing home runs throughout his career, and has allowed only 1 home run to all the Braves hitters he will face today in over 60 at bats. He has also pitched well to Jones and Giles in past years.

The umpire also favors the under today, as Onora has seemed to really widen the strike zone the last couple of years. This should really help both of these pitchers, who have great ability to take advantage of a big strike zone a home plate umpire gives them.

Cons:
Betting on two pitchers that haven’t pitched to their ability could be a risk and involves some speculation. Smoltz really struggled with his location last week, and has been leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone. He has also struggled against the Padres best hitter in the past, Giles. The Braves lineup has been hitting as well as any lineup in the league. They seem to be seeing the ball well right now, and may be a risky team to bet an under against. Both bullpens are below average, therefore, Smoltz and Peavy must go deep into this game to allow this game to stay under.

Conclusion:
Good value on the under, as I see a good opportunity for two elite pitchers to return to form. Look for Smoltz to overmatch an anemic Padres lineup, while Peavy should be able to slow down a hot, yet young Braves lineup. I am on the under.