UFC 59 picks

Im either going to look like a genius or an idiot no two ways about it here so here we go.

Levens +264 over Evan Tanner

Tanner best days are coming to a close I believe he'll make a mistake and I smell upset will follow.

Sylvia +360 over Arlovski

The price is right here. Sylvia is bigger the fact is going to be a stand up fight so Sylvia has KO power. So does Arlovski but too much is being made about their first fight. I'll give Sylvia a shot at this price

I also like Ortiz over Griffen but the price is too high. I would only bet Ortiz if he came in at around -200 since I believe he is going to be able to throw Griffen around and take him to the ground.

First Post/ My views on fights/odds

Like the bet on Levens good value,.

Tanner has some serious holes in his game, and as the athletisim of fighters overall is improving, he is going to get beat more and more. His stand up his terrible, and chin questionable.

Definately has heart though.


There are some decent dog bets.

I got Scott Smith over Terrel, Nick Thompson over Karo P., and
Derrick Noble over Thiago Alves.

Don't expect to win them all, but the odds were way off in favor of there opponents. Definately good value overalll.

Others:

Tito vs. Forrest

Tito should take this but there is no value in him at -300

Arlovski vs. Silvia

Arlovski will win this but same as above, -400ish isn't a number i feel comfortable betting into.

Jeff Monson vs. Marcio Cruz (pe de pano)

Monson is maybe the best bet on the card. Much better wrestler, even matchup in grappling- two of the best no-gi grapplers in world, and 4-0 as pro boxer. Plus he is way more seasoned. His record is decieving lost alot before he became a well rounded fighter. Cruz is overrated by the line solely because of his win over Frank Mir, ex-champ coming off a serious injury. Cruz dominated but they matched up real well in Mma, where as him and Monson don't. Monson should be able to dictate the pace of this fight, as he will be able to choose where the fight takes place.

Sherk vs. Diaz

Sherk is a bull, he just ran into a monster in his last fight in GSP, but he should win this just how Diego did against Diaz. He has a huge edge in takedowns, and expect him to be able to take Diaz down w/ ease and win a boring dec. from on top

Lambert vs. Martin

Lambert is on a roll, and Martin is undersized at 205.
Lambert by ko/stoppage.


Best Bet

J. Monson : sia -200 (5 units)

2 units on each of the dogs

Levens, Noble, Smith, Thompson.

Thanks for the post, welcome to therx and good luck tonight.

PatO... couldn't agree anymore about ur analysis on sherk/diaz and monson/cruz... my biggest bet is also on monson (3 units... may add more)... also got sylvia +361 (to win 1 unit)... like dmmd, i think there's some value in sylvia with this line... and then on a few fav's....

Tanner -284 (to win 1 unit)
Alves -276 (to win .5 unit)
Sherk -160 (to win .5 unit)
Ortiz -290 (to win .5 unit)

good luck

Real surprised one of those dogs didn't hit, Should have pulled the trigger on Sherk, as I could have gotten him at -120 (when lines opened, probably would have bet two units but didn't like the line, when i got around to betting).

Overall, decent show. Those judges were horrendous. I don't know how Tito won that fight 30-27, on one card and Forrest won 29-28 on another. Forrest surprised me, I didn't factor in that he was training w/ Randy for the fight, and that his training partner Rory, was just working w/ Tito on Tuf. Forrest was actually a good bet at that point, but glad I didn't bet it anyways, because of those judges.

Also, the judge that gave that fight to Cruz, must have been watching a totally differnt fight than I saw. It was a boring, unimpressive win, but Cruz could not have possibly won that fight from any scoring criteria.

Arlovski, fight looked a little fishy to me, not quite sure but think he may have thrown that fight. That punch had nothing on it, and he didnt even try to defend or cover himself up. He got up nice and quick, plus, he was smiling afterwards.

Wish I had posted before Ultimate Fight Night, my results look a little better there. Can't seem to copy and paste that betting ticket from Pinny, but I had some real solid dogs come in on that event, would have made for a much better 1st post, but oh well.


D. Christianson +184 w
Jon Fitch +215 w
C. Sonnenn +284 w
Josh Neer + 384 w
Rashad -203 w
K. Jardine +303 l- Tons of controversy on fight forums, majority thought he won, some are calling it one of the worst decisions in Ufc history
L. Fiorvanti +500- took a stab, here

Loved these odds perhaps the best odds I've seen for fights I thoaught should have been close to even money bets. Fitch, and Sonnen, had the edge in wrestling, which plays a much bigger role than many give it credit for, plus Sonnen trains w/ a better camp, workout partners. Absolutely loved this card.

Tonight on the other hand, the dogs were undervalued, so I took a stab at a few of them but it was not nearly as good of a betting card overall. Lots of Fights coming up in Next few months, hopefully some good value to be found.

I wish I had found this site earlier. I just discovered therx, about 3 weeks ago, and absolutely love this place. Love betting the fights, nothing like wagering on MMA, by far the most exciting Sport in my opinion. Looking forward to trakcing my plays here. Hope someone made some good bank tongiht. May post Baseball plays too, but am waiting another few weeks to see how things unfold a little more. Look forward to chatting w/ some of you.
Thanks for Reading, Pat

Overall, decent show. Those judges were horrendous. I don't know how Tito won that fight 30-27, on one card and Forrest won 29-28 on another. Forrest surprised me, I didn't factor in that he was training w/ Randy for the fight, and that his training partner Rory, was just working w/ Tito on Tuf. Forrest was actually a good bet at that point, but glad I didn't bet it anyways, because of those judges

those judges were definitely iffy... ortiz put griffen on the mat for 3.30+ mins in that first round... i was surprised the judges didn't give tito 10-8 in the 1st.... he absolutely dominated that first round... kinda hard to see griffen come back from that.. but the judges seemed to try to give it to griffen.. glad the judges scored it 3-9 for ortiz