Anybody find ultra-correlated parlays ?

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

Stuff like Fav - points and ML parlayed ? I get stuff ( not exactly that), and clean house on it. I have something like that now, but can't spill it, as much as I'd like to.

I had an out earlier where I could parlay NHL games and pucklines to salami over/ under, and home/away goals, until the bookie wised up on it, that stuff is GOLD.

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

example ...3 NHL games lined at 6, salami at 18.5.

Parlay all 3 over with salami over. Wheel it with AB and Salami,AC+sal, BC +Sal, I did a lot more than that !, got paid. You could go under, that's a start. I'd have hundreds of bets in a day , when I could do this to the poor guy booking it.

No need to embarass anybody.

trytrytry · Apr 15, 2006

interesting

reallyflorida at yahoo

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

Sorry, I won't give this info out ! It can't take the heat. You can get my e-mail from a mod ( OK, Wil), but I won't give this out, sorry !

trytrytry · Apr 15, 2006

..who do you like in the NHL tonight doug?

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

trytrytry said:
..who do you like in the NHL tonight doug?

I didn't bet any NHL, tossed in contest picks, thought Atl , but got shut-out ( They won 4-3).

I'm more concerned with current deal on sport X.

With the hockey parlays I was getting away with, here's a furthur example:

Lets say there were 6 games, all home teams favored;

I'd play every home team -1.5 goals, home teams, and over on salami

then drop one team

Also every road team +1.5 , Away, under

drop one team

If 11 games I'd play multiple parlays many ways. It took me awhile to figure out to even bet this stuff properly, it was so damn +EV.

PO69 · Apr 15, 2006

Well DOUG then why tell us about it if you wont give us the site?? I have had similar information in the past, but i certainly didnt post about it.

Like I once had a book who would ALWAYS leave up a prop in the NHL about no score in the first period until like 5 minutes left in the period. There are many more examples that I could give as well but I had better not do it since people around here will jump all over it and it will get most of them in trouble that they dont need.

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

playersonly69 said:
Well DOUG then why tell us about it if you wont give us the site?? I have had similar information in the past, but i certainly didnt post about it.

Like I once had a book who would ALWAYS leave up a prop in the NHL about no score in the first period until like 5 minutes left in the period. There are many more examples that I could give as well but I had better not do it since people around here will jump all over it and it will get most of them in trouble that they dont need.

For the same reason you didn't post the info on that prop on scoring, it can't be handled !

I just can't give it to anybody, much like your bet.

I ask if people have stuff like this ?

You can't post it until it's gone, or it will pass you by, as well. It's a bit Froggy to past post what I did against Book X, but that's the only way I can do it. I'll post what I was doing, after I can no longer do it.

It does involve parlaying.

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

Bet typically pays about +400 to +500, now stands at 8-11, remarkable ! I'm hoping it wins 30% of the time.

trytrytry · Apr 15, 2006

doug email sent to you.

quantumleap · Apr 15, 2006

Doug:

A couple years ago I was working on some Polish middles in baseball. I would take the -1.5 RL for one team and the ML for the other team. You would lose both bets if the -1.5 RL team won by 1.

However, games are decided by 1 run 29% of the time on average. If you factor in this percentage you can find results that are to your advantage. Also factor in that games with higher totals are less likely to be decided by 1 run and you have a bigger edge.

I didn't carry on with this because the edge I was getting seemed to be rather small and the standard deviation could be quite large. I would lose this bet a couple times and then would have to build back the loss.

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

quantumleap said:
Doug:

A couple years ago I was working on some Polish middles in baseball. I would take the -1.5 RL for one team and the ML for the other team. You would lose both bets if the -1.5 RL team won by 1.

However, games are decided by 1 run 29% of the time on average. If you factor in this percentage you can find results that are to your advantage. Also factor in that games with higher totals are less likely to be decided by 1 run and you have a bigger edge.

I didn't carry on with this because the edge I was getting seemed to be rather small and the standard deviation could be quite large. I would lose this bet a couple times and then would have to build back the loss.

No opinion, not my style.

quantumleap · Apr 15, 2006

Doug said:
No opinion, not my style.

Do you deal with system plays? I've heard some systems have been working consistently for years.

Doug · Apr 15, 2006

quantumleap said:
Do you deal with system plays? I've heard some systems have been working consistently for years.

Yes , systems are playable if based on correlations that should not be allowed to be parlayrd. Y'all need something more creative than fav -2.5 and fav on ML, though.

quantumleap · Apr 15, 2006

Thanks for pointing me in the general direction. I'm going to be pursuing more avenues for system plays and didn't know where to start.

Anybody find ultra-correlated parlays ?

Search

Doug

Rx God

Doug

Rx God

trytrytry

Member

Doug

Rx God

trytrytry

Member

Doug

Rx God

PO69

Rx. Senior

Doug

Rx God

Doug

Rx God

trytrytry

Member

quantumleap

Oh boy!

Doug

Rx God

quantumleap

Oh boy!

Doug

Rx God

quantumleap

Oh boy!

Forum statistics

Share this page