Update of R/L system

SSI · Apr 16, 2006

week 1/ series set 1: 12-3 (+14 units)
week 1/ series set 2: 12-3 (+19 units)

week 2/ series set 1: 12-3 (+12.66 units)

overall: 36-9 (+45.66 units)

week 2/ series set 2: is still pending.. now assuming Cincy cant comeback and cover the (-1.5)....... 6-5 cards in 8th now... this is where we stand for the weekend..

10-3 (+5.26 units)... with NY (-1.5) (+1.15) for 4 units. and SF (-1.5)(+2.07) for 4 units, still pending.... so the weekend could still go either way..

quick summary of this:

play the road team, always laying the (-1.5 runs)...

one unit on game one: if win, series is over, if lose then play 2 units on game 2, if win then series is over, if losing play 4 units on game 3........ better profit is made by winning game 2's and 3's...

will keep updated, could be some wild swings in units won/lost but looks very promising for the most part..

as this is a new system, i no longer will post the plays or advise anyone to follow this... will simply update this from time to time, and leave it at that..

SSI · Apr 16, 2006

reds now have the lead 7-6, so retract above statements for now...

week 2/ series set 2: 10-2 (+12.26 units)...... with 3 series pending..

cinn -1.5 (+2.45) 4 units
ny -1.5 (+1.15) 4 units
sf -1.5 (+2.07) 4 units

now, will update --- when everything is final...

FatTony · Apr 16, 2006

Nevermind.

SSI · Apr 16, 2006

final results for the 4 sets of series, played this season.

week 1/ series set 1: 12-3 (+14 units)
week 1/ series set 2: 12-3 (+19 units)
week 2/ series set 1: 12-3 (+12.66 units)
week 2/ series set 2: 12-3 (+12.14 units)

overall: 48-12 (+57.80 units)

Insiders · Apr 16, 2006

SSI

WOW thats some record ! Looks like you found the key!

SSI · Apr 16, 2006

definately worth a looksie........

what i do know is, road teams will cover that (-1.5 runs).... a large number of times, that they win SU....... might as well, make them pay you for it..

Journeyman · Apr 16, 2006

SSI this is hard to follow, are you saying you won't post the actual plays?

BookieNemesis · Apr 17, 2006

Did you play every single series so far since the beginning of the season? Or do you get selective? 58 units in 2 weeks. I gotta take a look.

SSI · Apr 17, 2006

yeah, im going to.... but there is really not a need for me to..

simply play the road team laying (-1.5 runs) in each series.. in a 1-2-4 format, stopping when you get a win... max loss almost always is 7 units... no one really needs me to post every play..

money management isnt too bad on this.. and it can be used in different formats..

SSI · Apr 17, 2006

i have not played every series, but this is something that can be looked up easily..

Journeyman · Apr 17, 2006

Ok I understand why you don't need to post actual plays.

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

SSI said:
yeah, im going to.... but there is really not a need for me to..

simply play the road team laying (-1.5 runs) in each series.. in a 1-2-4 format, stopping when you get a win... max loss almost always is 7 units... no one really needs me to post every play..

money management isnt too bad on this.. and it can be used in different formats..

Also stop if the series ends without a win.

I did some due diligence on this system from last year and can pass it along if you wish. The main thing I found (as I have noted in other threads) is that you need to avoid the worst teams. Last season the teams that were .500 or better on the season were +220 (estimate) units and the teams under .500 were -216 units. Thus, the system was about +4 units.

HOWEVER, the 7 worst teams in the league (all of which were .450 winning % or worse) accounted for 210 of the 216 units lost from the under .500 teams. THUS, if you can identify those teams and avoid them, this system should work great. I am playing the same system and posting my plays. However, I am avoiding FLA, KC, TB, Wash and Pitts and playing the home team at -1.5 when they are on the road. I am deviating from SSI in that regard and hope he joins me soon.

Wash and KC were on the road this weekend. Wash lost by 2 the first game and won game 3 by two, thus winning and closing its series. KC lost all 3 games for a -700 but I had TB (played KC) and closed them in game 1.

I have it all on a spreadsheet if you are interested in seeing it. I also looked at runs scored, runs allowed and run differential to see what the best indicator of success was and winning percentage was the best.

kobefan08 · Apr 17, 2006

fhmesq44, so you're saying that you are playing all the road series, except when FLA, KC, TB, Wash and Pittsburg are on a road series, then you fade them and play the home team -1.5 for the series correct?

BookieNemesis · Apr 17, 2006

kobefan08 said:
fhmesq44, so you're saying that you are playing all the road series, except when FLA, KC, TB, Wash and Pittsburg are on a road series, then you fade them and play the home team -1.5 for the series correct?

I think that's what he meant. There are two examples tomorrow

FL @ Cinci (Cinci -1.5 +101)
KC @ CWS (CSW -1.5 -152) <---This is still too expensive. If we lose, do we bet 2.5 as base unit for the next game?

kobefan08 · Apr 17, 2006

I think CWS would be too expensive to chase

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

kobefan08 said:
fhmesq44, so you're saying that you are playing all the road series, except when FLA, KC, TB, Wash and Pittsburg are on a road series, then you fade them and play the home team -1.5 for the series correct?

Correct, the worst 7 teams in the league were complete dogshit in this system last season. They had the 6 worst records with the best of those 6 being something like -26 units on the season. Inexplicably Pittsburgh was the 7th team and the second most profitable team of all 30. Complete anomaly IMO.

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

BookieNemesis said:
I think that's what he meant. There are two examples tomorrow

FL @ Cinci (Cinci -1.5 +101)
KC @ CWS (CSW -1.5 -152) <---This is still too expensive. If we lose, do we bet 2.5 as base unit for the next game?

Correct, I plan to play CWS even at that price and will probably chase them if they don't close it out in one game. I can't see KC keeping all the games in that series to 1 run or winning. You can always leave it out if you don't like the juice, which is understandable. But KC is complete dogshit, I wouldn't play them under any circumstances.

kobefan08 · Apr 17, 2006

ok thats cool, but you had 5 teams (FLA, KC, TB, Wash and Pittsburg), were there 2 more that would be excluded to follow the 7 shittiest team criteriea?

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

Yeah, that is all fluid and may change. At this point, those are the only teams I have identified as being complete shit. You may think there are more, or may not think one of them stinks as badly as I do. Teams can play their way in or out of that group. I think once we have more games under our belt, maybe 1.5 or 2 months, I am going to fade whoever is .450 or worse, which was the differentiation line last season. I picked up 19 or 20 units weds, fri, sat and sun of this week, didn't play thurs.

kobefan08 · Apr 17, 2006

don't you think there is something wrong with that simulation from last year though? since last year was roughly +220 units, and SSI already made 58 units in the first 2 weeks, there is either gonna be a major losing streak ahead of slow slow days