Can you be too conservative betting a pct of br?

Iceman · Apr 17, 2006

May seem like a weird question but here is my scenairo:

I started witha 10k bankroll on Jan 1st. I feel I have been on the the hottest streak of my life (over 1,000 plays so far this year, when in reality it is probably due to working harder and smarter than I ever have at this.) and up over $8,800 for year. As my bankroll closes in on 20k is it time to up my bet size from $100 a play to $200 a play.

The problem is I make a ton of plays a week. This is my style I have averaged close to 100 plays a week for the last 2 weeks and over 150+ plays a week during College basketball season.

If I keep up betting $100 a play, am I denying myself profits? I would be only betting .5% pct of bankroll. I still am not convinced (over 1,000 plays) that I will win the future(esp with baseball) and I remember the sick feeling I had when I lost this past NFL season. But I also think I may not be maxing out on this run I am on.

Do you guys feel that you are too conservative? I guess this isn't a bad thing but could be doubling my profits. Is less than 1% of br too conservative?

Omni · Apr 17, 2006

Math-wise, I'm sure thank you could be maximizing your profit more. But let me tell you a great truth that I learned, one of the truths that helped me turn the corner from a losing bettor to a winning one. You have to bet at whatever size you are comfortable with! Doesn't matter if it's half a percent or even less. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on bets where you know you should and not be worrying "what if it loses" because you have more money at stake that day then you are comfortable with. If you overbet your comfort zone then you will end up denying yourself some opportunities where you would have made money. Your thought proccess will change.

Just my 2 cents.

Christian · Apr 17, 2006

Omni said:
You have to bet at whatever size you are comfortable with! Doesn't matter if it's half a percent or even less. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on bets where you know you should and not be worrying "what if it loses" because you have more money at stake that day then you are comfortable with. If you overbet your comfort zone then you will end up denying yourself some opportunities where you would have made money.quote]

when i saw this thread, i had planned on responding with pretty much the same post...

but Omni beat me too it. EXCELLENT post Omni. perfectly stated.

Iceman · Apr 17, 2006

Omni said:
Math-wise, I'm sure thank you could be maximizing your profit more. But let me tell you a great truth that I learned, one of the truths that helped me turn the corner from a losing bettor to a winning one. You have to bet at whatever size you are comfortable with! Doesn't matter if it's half a percent or even less. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on bets where you know you should and not be worrying "what if it loses" because you have more money at stake that day then you are comfortable with. If you overbet your comfort zone then you will end up denying yourself some opportunities where you would have made money. Your thought proccess will change.

Just my 2 cents.

You have confirmed what I feel. Everyone has a comfort zone and when you pass it than you add way more pressure on yourself. Just have to be happpy with what I have won and not look at what I could have won.

Omni · Apr 17, 2006

Right. EVERYONE always looks back after a very nice run and thinks "Why didn't I bet more?!". I do it, I'll admit it. But that feeling isn't anywhere near equal to the bad feeling of looking back on a terrible run you didn't anticipate and thinking "Why did I bet so much! Why didn't I cut back!".

Not to mention that if you DO bet too much, and you lose a bunch quicky, odds are you won't cut back even after you realize you're betting over your head! Because no gambler wants to win back what he has lost at half the rate he lost it at. So now with less money to work with but still the same large bet amount you are betting way over your head, even more so than before. And thus starts the downward spiral...

Iceman · Apr 17, 2006

just seems so much easier to lose 10k and way harder to actually win it. Maybe that is why I am scared. Thanks, just wondering if anyone else felt the same way.

CHOPTALK · Apr 17, 2006

Its always better to be on the too conservative side than to be on the too liberal side.

Better to be safe than sorry.

ElIguana · Apr 17, 2006

Great advice, Fellas (or Ladies, if any replied).

But it's worth mentioning that one "should" (I use that term carefully) increase the bet when odds/trends/situations/value all align for a very strong play.

I think of blackjack: If you've got 11 and dealer's up card is a 6, it is a "wise" play statistically to double down on your wager. Sure, it's possible you'll draw a 2 and the dealer will draw to 21, but over time the odds are in your favor, and you're missing out on a prime opportunity if you don't double down.

It also depends on how much $$ you have on that hand, but as you guys said so well earlier, if you have more $$ on that hand than you feel comfortable playing, you shouldn't be betting that much.