FHMESQ twist on SSI -1.5 system plays, YTD = +10.95 UNITS

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

Nice day yesterday picking up 10.5 units. Today's plays are:

All are -1.5 runs

CWS 155/100
STL 100/100
ATL 100/275
Cincy 100/105
Mil 100/155
SD 100/160
SF 100/175
Cubs 100/145

Best of luck. Most of the AL series' start tomorrow.

The record for the season is 12-18. I will continue to post it. However, the record will continue to be under .500 as most of these plays are the road team on the run line.

MathProf · Apr 17, 2006

Alternate betting methods

FHM,

Great first week series' performance! Note however how much was
riding on final games at 4 units each.

Long run profit would be the same if you assumed seven-unit risk
per three game series (1-2-4 as of now) as follows:

A.) 1.5 units - 2.2 units - 3.3 units
(same seven unit risk but with progression smoothed)

or
B.) 2.33 units - 2.33 units - 2.33 units
(in this case the earlier you win the more money you make
as opposed to current 1-2-4 method which rewards late wins)

In all cases of course you stop with first win.
Important to emphasize for readers that long-run performance will
be the same as current 1-2-4 method.

Best of Luck this week!
MP

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

Math Prof,

Thanks, hopefully this continues.

The risk would be the same under that scenario, but I am not sure the profits would be. I suppose it would all depend when you win. Obviously in your scenario an early win would mean more profit than under 1-2-4, but a game 3 win in the 2.33/2.33/2.33 would actually result in a loss most of the time. You would have to have a +200 game in game 3 just to break even.

A would work better than B. However, if you are a 3 game loser, you lose 7 either way and with a game 3 winner, you actually win less. Thus, same risk, less reward. No? I suppose more reward would be there in game 1 and 2.

kobefan08 · Apr 17, 2006

how come SSI has the record at 48-12 for the year and yours is 12-18? isnt this the same system except those 5 teams?

SSI · Apr 17, 2006

he gave you an overall record, i posted a series record..

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

SSI said:
he gave you an overall record, i posted a series record..

Correct, SSI also is posting the series record from the beginning of the season. Mine is the per game recording starting last Friday. I may start posting both.

kobefan08 · Apr 17, 2006

ohhh i see... sorry for the misunderstanding

MathProf · Apr 17, 2006

Actually the long-term profit would be identical whether using
1-2-4 or 1.5-2.2-3.3 or 2.33-2.33-2.33!

The principle being that there is no arithmetic advantage to
progressive betting assuming that the probability of winning any given
game is the same (something we have no way to predict and
can reasonably assume to be valid in the long run).

Actually, I am concerned that the probability of winning actually
DECREASES in each game as the road team becomes relatively more
tired of hotel rooms and hotel food, hostile fans, stc.

What do you all think?

MP

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

MathProf said:
Actually the long-term profit would be identical whether using
1-2-4 or 1.5-2.2-3.3 or 2.33-2.33-2.33!

The principle being that there is no arithmetic advantage to
progressive betting assuming that the probability of winning any given
game is the same (something we have no way to predict and
can reasonably assume to be valid in the long run).

Actually, I am concerned that the probability of winning actually
DECREASES in each game as the road team becomes relatively more
tired of hotel rooms and hotel food, hostile fans, stc.

What do you all think?

MP

Agree on the probability of winning as each game is a mutually independant result.

However, the payouts will be different and thus you won't end up the same. The series that never close will end up -700 under either scenario. For instance, if a team wins game 2 and they are +135, you would be +170 under 1/2/4, but +147 under your first scenario. If they win game 1 at +135, they would be +135 under mine, +202.5 under yours. If they win game 3, $240 under mine, $75.5 under yours. The total under 1/2/4 would be +$545 and under yours it would be $425.

So, the only scenario under which you come out better in your breakdown is if the team closes the series in game 1. The even plays of 2.33 actually has you losing money with a game 3 win. Without going back and looking at the spreadsheet I think it is safe to assume that, of the series that closed, they closed proportionally or close to it based on game 1, 2 or 3 (1/3 each).

Thus, the additional profits in game 1 wins wouldn't make up for the lost profits in games 2 and 3. No?

MathProf · Apr 17, 2006

Actually not true. Because in some series we have won game one
and terminated, the gross number of games won in game two will be less;
because in some series we have won game two and terminated, the
gross number of game three wins will be less again.

The bottom line is that all betting scenarios which risk 7 units
over three games (including 7-0-0, for example) have the same
bottom line (which we hope is BLACK!)

What do you think about my conjecture regarding physical and
mental problems for road teams as series progresses?

MP

fhmesq44 · Apr 17, 2006

MathProf said:
Actually not true. Because in some series we have won game one
and terminated, the gross number of games won in game two will be less;
because in some series we have won game two and terminated, the
gross number of game three wins will be less again.

What do you think about my conjecture regarding physical and
mental problems for road teams as series progresses?

MP

When I get some time I will review the number of series that were won in each game last year. Last weekend they went 4, 4, 4 with KC, Cincy and SD never closing out their series.

Agree, but that is probably more true in a vacuum, the same would be true at the end of a road trip, probably more likely to get swept. But there are a lot of variables, mainly starting pitching. If starters 4 and 5 pitch games 1 and 2, you have a better chance of winning game 3 with the #1 going irrespective of being hung over in a new city.

tendog · Apr 17, 2006

i am not sure that the road teams in baseball tend to wear down as much from the travel as say the nba where there is much talk about the girls and parties etc. the plane,hotel,plane thing all in less than 24 hrs would be tougher than the baseball deal of settling in and relaxing for 2 or 3 days. imo

FHMESQ twist on SSI -1.5 system plays, YTD = +10.95 UNITS

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fhmesq44

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.

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fhmesq44

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